Moody's может повысить валютный рейтинг Казахстана "Ваа3"

/REUTERS, 03.05.06/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Moody's включило рейтинг Казахстана в иностранной валюте "Ваа3" в список на возможное повышение, говорится в сообщении Moody's. Прогноз изменения рейтинга Казахстана в местной валюте "Ваа1" и по банковским депозитам в иностранной валюте "Ва1" пересмотрен на стабильный с позитивного. "Решение поместить рейтинг Казахстана в иностранной валюте... в список на пересмотр с возможностью повышения было принято в ответ на шесть лет сильного экономического роста в сочетании с разумной макроэкономической политикой, которые повлекли за собой значительный рост резервов в иностранной валюте и значительно укрепили возможность страны платить по своим небольшим валютным долгам", - говорится в сообщении Moody's. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's. MOODY'S PLACES REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN'S FOREIGN CURRENCY Baa3 RATING UNDER REVIEW FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE New York, May 03, 2006 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed the Republic of Kazakhstan's Baa3 foreign currency country ceiling for bonds and its Baa3 rating for foreign currency government bonds under review for possible upgrade. At the same time, the rating agency changed the outlooks on the Republic's Baa1 local currency bond rating and the Ba1 foreign currency ceiling for bank deposits to stable from positive. Kazakhstan's A2 local currency bank deposit ceiling and its A1 local currency guideline were not affected by these actions. The decision to place the Republic's foreign currency country ceiling and foreign currency government bond rating on review for possible upgrade was taken in response to six years of strong economic growth coupled with prudent macroeconomic policies that have yielded substantial growth of foreign currency reserves and strengthened considerably the country's ability to pay its small foreign currency government debt. Official foreign exchange reserves plus those reserves held in the National Fund for the Republic of Kazakhstan (the country's "rainy day" oil-plus-excess-budget-revenues fund) have grown from 13% to 23% of GDP, 2001 - 2005, while foreign currency government debt has dropped from 15% to 3% of GDP. At the same time as the country has experienced rapid economic growth, there has been a similarly rapid credit expansion and a substantial increase in foreign currency borrowing by the banking system, some of which has been on-lent to small and medium size enterprises and to households. In aggregate, given the extremely rapid increase in domestic credit since 2004, it is possible that under adverse economic conditions, there could be an outsized deterioration in the banking system's asset quality that would represent a contingent claim on the government. In consequence, such rapid credit expansion has led to a marginal change in risk faced by the government (in terms of local currency credit risk) that is inconsistent with the existing positive outlook. At the same time, such developments are also not consistent with a higher foreign currency bank deposit ceiling. Hence, the outlook on both these ratings has been changed to stable from positive. Moody's forthcoming review will focus on analyses of bank credit and the banking system, monetary policy in the face of inflationary pressures, and energy pipeline capacity, infrastructure programs in light of forecasts for rapid expansion of oil and gas production. New York Vincent J. Truglia Managing Director Sovereign Risk Unit Moody's Investors Service JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 New York Jonathan R. Schiffer VP - Senior Credit Officer Sovereign Risk Unit Moody's Investors Service JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 [2006-05-03]