Fitch повысило рейтинг Казахстана до "ВВВ" с "ВВВ-"

/REUTERS, 20.12.05/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings повысило во вторник следующие рейтинги Республики Казахстан: - рейтинг эмитента по обязательствам в иностранной валюте до "ВВВ" с "ВВВ-"; - рейтинг эмитента по обязательствам в местной валюте до "ВВВ+" с "ВВВ"; - страновой потолок до "ВВВ" с "ВВВ-". Одновременно Fitch подтвердило краткосрочный рейтинг эмитента на уровне "F3". Прогноз динамики всех рейтингов - стабильный, говорится в сообщении Fitch. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения агентства Fitch на английском языке. FITCH UPGRADES KAZAKHSTAN TO 'BBB' Fitch Ratings-London-20 December 2005: Fitch Ratings has today upgraded the Republic of Kazakhstan's Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'BBB' from BBB-' (BBB minus) and the Local Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'BBB+' from BBB'. At the same time, the agency has affirmed the Short-term Issuer Default Rating at 'F3' while the Country Ceiling has been upgraded to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' (BBB minus). The rating Outlooks are Stable. The upgrades are supported by a strong macroeconomic performance, progress with structural reforms, a good track record in responding to shocks and the ongoing development of the oil and gas sector. The political scene remains stable, with December's presidential election passing smoothly and resulting in a further term for President Nursultan Nazabayev, and public finances are strong. The consolidated fiscal position has been in surplus since 2001 and roughly 60% of the total oil windfall received since that time has been saved in the national oil fund. Fitch estimates that the fund will hold USD6.7 billion, or 13.3% of GDP, at end-2005, providing a large buffer against shocks. Reflecting the combination of rapid GDP growth and a tight fiscal stance, the general government debt burden is forecast to fall below 10% of GDP this year, by far the lowest in the 'BBB' peer group. The public finances also compare very well on the external side. The public sector's net external creditor position remains the strongest in the peer group with a net asset position of 41% of current account receipts or 26% of GDP. In contrast, the countrywide external balance sheet compares less well with its 'BBB'-rated peers. However, more than half of the total external debt is inter-company debt related to the development of the oil and gas sector. This is common practice in the oil industry as debt investment carries more tax benefits than equity investment. The servicing schedule of this debt is not clearly defined but tends to rise and fall with the oil price, and parent companies typically roll over obligations during difficult times. Excluding this, Kazakhstan's debt ratios would compare well with its peers and its liquidity ratio would rise above 120%. "Future economic prospects are bright, underpinned by Kazakhstan's vast mineral wealth," said Sharon Raj, Director in the Sovereign Group. "The oil and gas sector is developing rapidly and by 2020 output levels are expected to be running at 3.5m-4m bpd placing Kazakhstan in the world's top 10 oil exporters. Against this background, the government's external position is likely to continue to strengthen." However, Fitch notes that rising oil income could exert upward pressure on the exchange rate, which will in turn make diversifying the economy more difficult, while pressures for higher public spending are likely to mount. While even a large rise in spending would be possible to finance, it would make progress in reducing inflation more difficult. On the political front, President Nazarbayev's dominant role has helped to deliver social stability and prudent economic policies to date but such a centralised system means that succession risks are higher than in most of Kazakhstan's rated peers. As the President is relatively young and appears to be in good health, uncertainty over Kazakhstan's future leadership is more of a long-term issue than a near-term concern. However, rumours of rivalries and rising tensions within political inner circles suggest that a damaging power struggle between potential successors at some point cannot be ruled out. [2005-12-20]