Fitch не видит риска для рейтинга Казахстана из-за заимствований банков

/REUTERS, Лондон, 12.04.05/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings в специальном докладе, опубликованном в пятницу, сообщило, что высокий уровень внешних заимствований банков Казахстана в настоящее время не оказывает негативного давления на суверенный рейтинг страны. Тем не менее, агентство отмечает, что увеличившийся объем внешних заимствований банковского сектора создает ряд дополнительных рисков на страновом уровне, которыми необходимо управлять. Fitch пишет, что продолжает следить за ситуацией. "Рост заимствований повлиял на резкое ухудшении чистой внешней позиции банковского сектора и создал плотный график внешних долговых выплат, - сказал автор доклада Шарон Радж. - Это может оказать давление на платежный баланс Казахстана в случае проблем с кредитованием". Долгосрочный валютный рейтинг Fitch Казахстана составляет "ВВВ-", прогноз - стабильный. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения агентства Fitch Ratings на английском языке. FITCH: KAZAKHSTANI BANKS' EXTERNAL BORROWING AND SOVEREIGN RATING RISK 15 Apr 2005 5:30 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-London/Moscow-15 April 2005: Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, says in a special report published today that high external borrowing by Kazakhstani banks is not currently exerting downward pressure on the sovereign rating. Nonetheless, the agency warns that the banking sector's increasing reliance on external funding has created some additional risks at country level that need to be well managed and Fitch will continue to monitor the situation closely. "The rise in borrowing has contributed to a sharp worsening of the net external position of the banking sector and has generated an increasingly lumpy external debt repayment schedule," says Sharon Raj, author of the report and a Director in Fitch's sovereign team. "This could put pressure on Kazakhstan's balance of payments in the event of rollover difficulties." As in many other countries in the region, the banking system in Kazakhstan is growing rapidly. Private sector credit growth has averaged 57% per year over the last five years and has risen to close to 30% of GDP by end-2004 from less than 10% in 1999. Although rapid credit growth is to be expected as previous constraints on development ease, Fitch notes that such a fast expansion inevitably raises questions over the quality of lending decisions and the likely impact of a sharp economic downturn on loan losses. Several of the larger banks have been increasingly funding this expansion through external borrowing. This appears logical for the individual banks since rising demand for long-term bank loans is not matched by long-term funding domestically, but it has contributed to a sharp worsening of the net external position of the banking sector as a whole and a less favourable repayment schedule. Nevertheless, the deterioration in the banking system's net external position is not currently exerting downward pressure on the sovereign rating. Although it is above the "BBB-" (BBB minus) median, the banking system's net debt position is not out of line with those in some other similarly-rated credits such as Croatia and Romania. Moreover, despite its rapid growth, the sector is still relatively small. As such, it represents a manageable contingent liability for the sovereign, which currently has a smaller general government debt burden and a far stronger, and improving, net external asset position than all of its "BBB-" (BBB minus) - rated peers, and therefore flexibility to take on additional liabilities if necessary. Nonetheless, if its net external position were to continue to weaken at the pace set in 2004 it could start to become a larger concern. The banking sector in Kazakhstan is highly concentrated with the three largest banks accounting for over 60% of total assets. State involvement is limited and, although some foreign banks are active in the domestic market, foreign ownership is lower than in Kazakhstan's rated peers from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Standards of regulation and supervision compare well with the rest of the CIS. Most banks are liquid and profitable and capital levels are currently adequate, although they have come under strain as a result of fast asset growth. Loss loans are low at less than 3% of the total, though doubtful loans are far higher. Overall, Fitch considers that the health of the system compares favourably with others in the CIS, but is weaker than those in most CEE countries. [2005-04-12]