FITCH ПОВЫСИЛО РЕЙТИНГ КАЗАХСТАНА ДО ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОГО УРОВНЯ

/REUTERS, Лондон, 27.10.04/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings повысило в среду долгосрочный рейтинг Казахстана по обязательствам в иностранной валюте до инвестиционного уровня "ВВВ-" с "ВВ+", говорится в сообщении агентства. Краткосрочный рейтинг по обязательствам в иностранной валюте был повышен до "F3" с "В", а долгосрочный рейтинг по обязательствам в местной валюте - до "ВВВ" с "ВВВ-". Прогноз долгосрочных рейтингов - стабильный, говорится в сообщении Fitch. "Улучшение кредитоспособности Казахстана подкрепляется развитием его нефтегазового сектора и влиянием высоких цен на нефть", - пишут аналитики агентства. "Экономика находится на пути к пятому подряд году с ростом ВВП выше девяти процентов, а власти продолжают разумно управлять доходами от экспорта нефти", - отмечает Fitch. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Fitch на английском языке. FITCH UPGRADES KAZAKHSTAN TO "BBB-" Fitch Ratings-London-27 October 2004: Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, has today upgraded the Republic of Kazakhstan's Long-term foreign currency rating to "BBB-" (BBB minus) from "BB+'. The Short-term foreign currency rating has been upgraded to "F3" from "B" and the Long-term local currency rating upgraded to "BBB" from "BBB-" (BBB minus). The Outlook on the Long-term ratings is Stable. The improvement in Kazakhstan's creditworthiness is underpinned by the development of its oil and gas sector and the spill-over of high oil prices. The economy is on track to record its fifth consecutive year of GDP growth above 9% and the authorities continue to manage oil revenues prudently. Although social spending has increased, the consolidated general government fiscal position (including the National Fund) remains in surplus and the bulk of the oil windfall is being saved in the National Fund. Indeed, by the end of 2004, Fitch estimates that the Fund will hold more than USD5 billion, or 13.1% of GDP. Government debt is low at 13.5% of GDP and the public sector has a net external creditor position equivalent to 24% of GDP. Gross external debt for the country as a whole is relatively high but more than 50% of the debt is inter-company liabilities related to oil and gas projects. Excluding these liabilities Kazakhstan's debt ratios would compare far more favourably with its peers' and the liquidity ratio would rise above 100%. Despite efforts to encourage economic diversification, and a relatively strong performance by the non-oil sector in recent years, the fast growth of the hydrocarbons sector has ensured that it continues to dominate the economy. As such, Kazakhstan remains exposed to a sharp fall in oil prices. However, this is not an event that Fitch currently judges as likely over the near term and, even if an unexpected oil price adjustment did occur, the economy and the country's public finances are in a stronger position to cope with this sort of pressure now than at any time in the past. Over the next 10 years oil output is set to rise to around 3.5 million bpd from just over 1 million bpd, higher than current production levels in Norway and only slightly below output in Iran and Mexico. Natural gas production is also set to rise sharply. Against this background the current account is likely to record rising surpluses from 2008 onwards, the assets of the National Fund should continue to mount and the government's net creditor position should strengthen further. However, this positive picture is tempered slightly by political risks. President Nazarbayev's dominant role means that succession risks appear higher in Kazakhstan than in most of its rating peers. In addition, although Fitch's central expectation is for broad social stability over the medium term, rising domestic tensions or negative spill-over effects from less stable neighbours cannot be ruled out. [2004-10-27]