Moody's повысило рейтинг Железных дорог Казахстана до "Ваа3"

/REUTERS, Нью-Йорк, 15.07.04/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Moody's повысило долгосрочный рейтинг Железных дорог Казахстана (Казахстан Темир Жолы, КТЖ) до "Ваа3" с "Ва1", прогноз изменений рейтинга - позитивный, говорится в сообщении Moody's. "Повышение отражает переоценку Moody's отношений между КТЖ и Республикой Казахстан и вероятность структурных перемен, которые могут привести с изменению отношений с государством", - говорится в сообщении Moody's. "Moody's считает, что повышение прозрачности в том, что касается структуры КТЖ, основанное на успешном продвижении программы реструктуризации, добавило уверенности в том, что КТЖ сохранит прочную связь с Республикой Казахстан в обозримом будущем". "Более того, Moody's ожидает, что эта связь сохранится в среднесрочной перспективе, и будущие изменения рейтинга КТЖ будут связаны с изменениями суверенного рейтинга Казахстана", - говорится в сообщении. Рейтинг Казахстана от Moody's - "Ваа3", прогноз - позитивный. Ниже приводиться оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке. MOODY'S UPGRADES TO Baa3 KAZAKHSTAN'S RAILWAYS (KAZAKHSTAN TEMIR ZHOLY); POSITIVE OUTLOOK Frankfurt, July 15, 2004 - Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded to Baa3 from Ba1 the long-term issuer rating of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy ("KTZ"), the national railway company of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The outlook for the rating is positive. The upgrade reflects Moody's reassessment of the linkage between KTZ and the Republic of Kazakhstan and the likelihood of structural changes that could lead to a change in the relationship with the State. Moody's believes that increasing visibility as to the final structure of KTZ, based on the successful progression of the restructuring programme, has added comfort that KTZ will retain a strong connection to the Republic of Kazakhstan for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, as Moody's expects this strong link to remain over the medium term, any future rating changes for KTZ will likely be prompted by changes to the sovereign rating of the Republic of Kakakhstan. According to Moody's, the Baa3 rating reflects the following factors: (1) the State's proven intent and strong incentive to continue to support the company through legal and regulatory means over the medium term, with the help of favourable tariff-setting policies as well as beneficial legislation during the restructuring process and the development of a competitive market for railway services; (2) the expectation that the State will remain the 100% shareholder of KTZ for the foreseeable future; (3) the Government's continued influence over the appointment of key personnel and decision-making processes; (4) the State's improved capacity to provide support to KTZ, based on the continuing growth in economic prosperity and the country's critical dependence on the railway system as a means to support this economic growth; (5) the strategic positioning of KTZ as the national rail company and monopoly provider of rail infrastructure services over the long term; (6) the competitive advantages of rail transport in Kazakhstan and the high barriers to entry to the bulk cargo transport business by other modes of transport for non-oil cargo; and (7) the current low levels of financial indebtedness and limited off-balance sheet liabilities resulting from the current government-agreed tariff and capital expenditure structures. Moreover, the rating also takes into consideration the remaining transition and event risk associated with the ongoing restructuring process in the railway sector, which will ultimately transform the business profile of KTZ from that of a full- spectrum rail services provider to that of a more focused provider of infrastructure, cargo and locomotive services. Specifically, KTZ will become a streamlined provider of rail services, with a monopoly position in the management of the national rail infrastructure and dispatching, as well as a competitive position in cargo and locomotive services -- two market areas that are currently being liberalised. The loss-making passenger services business will revert to government control from 2005 as part of a separate legal entity with no recourse to the KTZ group. Moody's cautions that KTZ will therefore face increasing competition in the cargo sector over time, but at the same time notes that these developments are mitigated by the fact that the rail infrastructure, the largest value component in the cargo tariffs, is expected to always remain under government ownership, as supported by the existing federal law on Rail Transport. Moody's expects KTZ's core revenues to face competitive threats arising from alternative modes of transportation -- in particular, from the gradual build-out of Kazakhstan's oil pipeline system, which is likely to impact KTZ's largest freight commodity on a profit basis. Nevertheless, Moody's believes that company- specific operational and competitive issues are outweighed from a ratings perspective by the expectation of continued Government commitment and support. The positive rating outlook is based on Moody's expectation that there will be no material change in the depth of KTZ's link with the Kazakhstani State (measured by the extent of government and regulatory support) during the ongoing reform process and until it reaches completion after 2009. Moody's believes that this factor, along with the anticipated strong medium-term development in cargo transport volumes as well as improvements to the company's cost structure, especially from the removal of the Passenger Services segment from the group, will combine to support a stable financial position for KTZ. Moody's adds that, given the positioning of the current Baa3 rating of KTZ, any future positive movement in the rating level is likely to be predicated on a positive move in the rating of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Any downward pressure on KTZ's current rating is likely to result from a change in the relationship between the company and the Republic of Kazakhstan, in particular with respect to any significant changes to the restructuring process. Moody's cautions that the overall rail sector reform process has yet to be fully implemented, with full implementation not likely until after 2009. As a result, Moody's has yet to fully assess the ultimate impact of the reform process on the business and financial profile of KTZ. In the interim, Moody's takes comfort from KTZ's strategic importance as a key facilitator to and supporter of Kazakhstan's economy, which should in turn continue to underpin the State's ongoing commitment to developing the overall rail service provision, including tariff-setting policies consistent with KTZ remaining profitable and adequately meeting its ongoing investment needs. KTZ's maintains a strong financial profile as supported by the current national rail tariff structures. The company has low levels of financial indebtedness and limited off-balance sheet liabilities and it is Moody's understanding that management will maintain a conservative financial policy going forward. Moody's believes that the government-controlled budgetary process for KTZ and tariffs will be managed in such a way as to ensure that KTZ (i) remains profitable and (ii) can adequately cover the growing investment requirements that are needed to modernise track infrastructure, locomotives and rolling stock. Moody's adds that the company's liquidity profile is solid based primarily on internally generated operating cash flows and existing cash balances which more than cover expected investment needs and short-term debt maturities. Headquartered in Astana City, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy is an integrated provider of rail services to the Kazakhstani market. The company is the monopoly owner and operator of the country's rail infrastructure and offers cargo and passenger transport services through its substantial fleet of locomotives and rolling stock. The company has approximately 95,000 employees and recorded revenues of Tenge 206 billion (US$ 1.5 billion) and a net income of Tenge 12 billion (US$ 90 million) in 2003. [2004-07-16]