S&P повысило валютные рейтинги Казахстана до инвестиционного уровня

/REUTERS, Лондон, 20.05.04/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor's повысило рейтинги Казахстана в иностранной валюте до инвестиционного уровня "ВВВ-/А-3" с "ВВ+/В", говорится в сообщении S&P. Рейтинги в местной валюте повышены до "ВВВ/А-3" с "ВВВ-/А-3". Прогноз изменения рейтингов - стабильный. В сообщении S&P говорится, что Казахстан стал девятым из государств, для которых агентство составляет рейтинги, которое перешло из спекулятивной шкалы в инвестиционную. Инвестиционный рейтинг значительно расширяет круг потенциальных инвесторов. "Повышение отражает продолжающееся укрепление внутренних и внешних финансовых позиций Казахстана в контексте разумной финансовой политики и хороших среднесрочных экономических перспектив", - сказал аналитик S&P Люк Маршан. В сентябре 2002 года одно из трех ведущих мировых рейтинговых агентств - Moody's - повысило рейтинг Казахстана до инвестиционного "Baa3". Fitch по- прежнему оценивает страну на ступень ниже - "BB+". Ниже приводиться оригинальный текст сообщения Standard & Poor's на английском языке. S&P UPS RATINGS ON KAZAKHSTAN, OUTLOOK STABLE LONDON, May 20 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it raised its foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan to BBB- /A-3' from 'BB+/B', and its local currency ratings to 'BBB/A-3' from BBB-/A-3'. The outlook is stable. Kazakhstan is the ninth sovereign currently rated by Standard & Poor's that has made this transition to investment grade from speculative grade. "The upgrade reflects the continued strengthening of Kazakhstan's external and fiscal position, in the context of prudent financial policies and strong medium-term economic prospects," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Luc Marchand. "Public sector net external assets are expected to reach about 48.6% of current account receipts in 2004, on the back of continued economic growth and the resource- based tax revenues that follow," said Mr. Marchand. "Moreover, fiscal prudence is underpinned by the accumulation of oil and tax windfalls in a National Fund, which will smooth the impact of oil price volatility," he continued. The government has maintained prudent fiscal and monetary policies, which limit the deficit and inflation. A small surplus is expected in 2004 of about 2.2% of GDP before tax revenue transfers to the National Fund (a deficit of about 0.8% after transfers). General government debt is projected at a manageable 12.3% of GDP at year- end 2004, and will continue to decrease over the next few years at about 1.5%- 2.0% of GDP annually. Meanwhile, macroeconomic stabilization should continue, with price growth estimated at 6.4% in 2004, and economic growth at about 8.8%. A strong external position is also supporting the ratings. Public sector net external assets are expected to reach about 63.3% of current account receipts by 2005, compared with an estimated 48.6% in 2004. External liquidity remains high due to expected current account surpluses, and very high net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The current account balance is expected to record a surplus estimated at about 1.3% of GDP in 2004, compared with a deficit of 0.2% of GDP in 2003, and is expected to remain in surplus due to only moderate import growth, but also increased exports--especially of oil and gas. Nevertheless, the highly centralized and opaque nature of governance, along with weak institutional and legal systems, continues to constrain the Republic's creditworthiness and renders policy-making less predictable than in similarly rated countries. This is compounded by a weak economic structure and low income levels. Standard & Poor's expects that the government will continue to pursue a fiscal policy that is aimed at decreasing the public sector debt burden, while gradually addressing growing spending needs in the social sector, government employee pensions, and physical infrastructure. Even a sharp decline in oil prices (down to $15 per barrel) is not expected to lead to lower sovereign creditworthiness, as the government has accumulated sufficient funds to sustain such a cost on the budget for about three years without impairing its original fiscal targets. A continued strengthening of the government's financial position, an improvement in governance and business environment, and an acceleration of structural reforms would further enhance the country's credit standing. [2004-05-20]