MOODY'S ПОДТВЕРДИЛО РЕЙТИНГ ГОРОДА НУР-СУЛТАН НА УРОВНЕ ВАА3, ПРОГНОЗ ИЗМЕНЕН СО "СТАБИЛЬНОГО" НА "ПОЗИТИВНЫЙ"

27.08.19 17:15
/Moody's Investors Service, Лондон, 23.08.19, перевод и заголовок KASE/ – Moody's Investors Service подтвердило рейтинг эмитента г. Нур-Султан на уровне Baa3 и изменило прогноз по рейтингу со стабильного на позитивный. В то же время, Moody's понизило базовую оценку кредитоспособности (BCA) города с baa3 до ba1. Сегодняшняя процедура следует за рейтинговым действием 22 августа 2019 г., в ходе которого агентство подтвердило рейтинг государственных облигаций Казахстана на уровне Baa3 и изменило прогноз со стабильного на позитивный. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке. Moody's Investors Service affirmed the Baa3 issuer rating of Nur-Sultan, City of (Nur-Sultan) and changed the outlook on the rating to positive from stable. At the same time, Moody's lowered the city's baseline credit assessment (BCA) to ba1 from baa3. Today's action follows Moody's rating action on August 22, 2019, in which the agency affirmed Kazakhstan's government bond rating of Baa3, and changed the outlook to positive from stable (For full details, please see "https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_402812";). RATINGS RATIONALE The affirmation of Nur-Sultan's Baa3 issuer rating reflects high alignment of its finances with those of the national government, as well as the city's strategic importance in the national context. Being the capital of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan is enduringly linked with the national government via close institutional, economic and financial links. These links have strengthened in recent years as the city's population continues to grow rapidly and it becomes the home to a greater number of large corporations and government institutions. Given these linkages, and the fact that the national government is the city's largest creditor, Moody's continues to incorporate a strong level of extraordinary support from the national government to Nur-Sultan, in the event the city were to face acute liquidity stress. While reporting healthy operating balances, the city remains largely dependent on the sovereign for its capital expenditures. Therefore, the expected improvement in the national government's credit strength signals increasing capacity of the national government to assist Nur-Sultan in accommodating its rapidly growing population via budget transfers. The above considerations suggest no major difference in the credit strength of Nur-Sultan and that of the national government, triggering the corresponding change of the outlook on the city's rating to positive from stable. While the improving operating environment, as reflected in the positive outlook on the sovereign rating, exerts upward pressure on Nur-Sultan's own credit strength, Moody's notes the marginal weakening of the city's financial metrics in recent years, as seen by some deterioration in operating balances and increased debt burden. The city's net direct and indirect debt increased to 65% of operating revenues in 2018 up from 34% in 2015, as a result of bond issuances needed to finance the previously sharp increase in capital spending. Additionally, recently revealed financial difficulties at Astana LRT LLP, Nur-Sultan's vehicle for development of the city's transport infrastructure, adds stress to the city's stand- alone credit strength as represented by the BCA. The marginal weakening in financial metrics and the recent challenges at Astana LRT LLP led Moody's to lower the city's BCA to ba1 from baa3. – WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN An upgrade of the sovereign rating could exert upward credit pressure on Nur- Sultan provided its budget performance remains in line with Moody's current forecasts. Given the change of the outlook to positive, negative credit pressures are unlikely to develop for Nur-Sultan. At the same time, any unexpected deterioration in the city's credit metrics, i.e. unexpected revenue declines or increased expenditures resulting into growing operating deficits and rising debt burdens, could exert downward pressure on the city's ratings or outlook. Additionally, further financial difficulties at Astana LRT LLP or other city-owned enterprises could also apply downward pressure on the city's rating. The sovereign action required the publication of this credit rating action on a date that deviates from the previously scheduled release date in the sovereign release calendar, published on www.moodys.com Sovereign Issuer: Kazakhstan, Government of GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 27,550 (2018 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 4.1% (2018 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 5.3% (2018 Actual) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: 2.7% (2018 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: 0% (2018 Actual) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 91.8% (2018 Actual) Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983. SUMMARY OF MINUTES FROM RATING COMMITTEE On 21 August 2019, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Nur-Sultan, City of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's governance and/or management, have materially decreased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The systemic risk in which the issuer operates has not materially changed. The principal methodology used in this rating was Regional and Local Governments published in January 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity. Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review. Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. *Полная версия пресс-релиза размещена на сайте Moody's. [2019-08-27]