MOODY'S ПОДТВЕРДИЛО РЕЙТИНГИ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН НА УРОВНЕ ВАА3, ПРОГНОЗ ИЗМЕНЕН СО "СТАБИЛЬНОГО" НА "ПОЗИТИВНЫЙ"
/Moody's Investors Service, Сингапур, 22.08.19, перевод и заголовок KASE/ –
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") сегодня подтвердило долгосрочные
рейтинги эмитента правительства Казахстана в местной и иностранной валюте
на уровне Baa3 и изменило прогноз по ним со Стабильного на Позитивный.
Рейтинги приоритетного необеспеченного долга в иностранной валюте
и среднесрочных нот также были подтверждены на уровне Baa3 и (P)Baa3,
Изменение рейтинга на позитивный обусловлено мнением Moody's что
стрессоустойчивость казахстанской экономики повышается, поддерживаемая
перспективами энергичного роста как в углеводородном, так и в других
секторах, и растущими доходами. Перспективы дальнейших экономических
реформ, вкупе с рациональным и эффективным управлением бюджетными
резервами, демонстрируют, что показатели кредитоспособности Казахстана
могут улучшаться и далее, чтобы соответствовать более высокому рейтингу.
Подтверждение рейтинга Казахстана на уровне Baa3 отражает устойчивый
баланс активов и пассивов правительства, поддерживаемый низкой долговой
нагрузкой и значительными бюджетными резервами, устойчивыми к длительному
воздействию со стороны нефтяных рынков, по-прежнему низкого – хотя
и постепенно растущего – институционального потенциала, текущих проблем
банковского сектора и долгосрочных рисков, связанных с транзитом власти.
Верхняя граница долгосрочных рейтингов по облигациям и депозитам в местной
валюте для Казахстана по-прежнему остается на уровне Baa1. Верхняя граница
долгосрочных рейтингов по облигациям в иностранной валюте и депозитам
в иностранной валюте также не изменилась: Baa2 и Baa3, соответственно.
Верхняя граница краткосрочных рейтингов по облигациям и депозитам
в иностранной валюте осталась прежней: P-2 и P-3, соответственно.
Упомянутая "верхняя граница" служит в качестве предельного значения для
рейтингов, которое может присвоено облигациям прочих хозяйствующих субъектов,
зарегистрированных в стране.
Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке.
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the Government of
Kazakhstan's local and foreign currency long-term issuer rating at Baa3 and
changed the outlook to positive from stable. The foreign currency senior
unsecured debt and MTN ratings were also affirmed at Baa3 and (P)Baa3,
The change in the outlook to positive is driven by Moody's assessment that
economic resilience in Kazakhstan is increasing, supported by robust growth
prospects in both hydrocarbon and non- hydrocarbon sectors, and rising
incomes. Prospects for further economic reforms, combined with prudent and
effective management of fiscal buffers, indicate that Kazakhstan's credit
metrics may strengthen further to be consistent with a higher rating.
The affirmation of Kazakhstan's Baa3 rating reflects the government's strong
balance sheet, supported by a low debt burden and sizeable financial buffers,
and robust economic growth prospects, balanced against continued exposure to
oil markets, still low -- although gradually increasing -- institutional
strength, ongoing banking sector fragilities, and longer-term political
Kazakhstan's long-term local currency bond and deposit ceilings remain
unchanged at Baa1. The Baa2 long-term foreign currency bond ceiling and Baa3
long-term foreign currency deposit ceiling are also unchanged. The short-term
foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at P-2 and P-3,
respectively. These ceilings typically act as a cap on the ratings that can be
assigned to the obligations of other entities domiciled in the country.
RATIONALE FOR THE POSITIVE OUTLOOK
IMPROVING ECONOMIC STRENGTH, FURTHER REFORM PROSPECTS
AND PRUDENT AND EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF FISCAL BUFFERS
Moody's expects real GDP growth in Kazakhstan to remain robust at around 4%
over the next two to three years, with rising contributions from the non-
hydrocarbon sector. Stable oil production with ongoing investment into
expanding production capacity, including at the Tengiz and Kashagan oil
fields, will continue to support the sector's global competitiveness and
drive oil exports.
While the hydrocarbon sector will remain the dominant sector in the economy
over the foreseeable future, Moody's expects a broadening of growth drivers
and rising incomes to support greater economic resilience. In particular,
mining and transport and logistics will likely continue to grow robustly.
Further developments in Kazakhstan's mining sector will raise the contribution
to mining exports beyond the 20% of total goods and services exports in 2018.
The new subsoil code, effective June 2018, will likely encourage further
investment and expand mining activity. Meanwhile, transport and logistics
will continue to benefit from increased freight transit between China
and Europe, given the time savings involved in shipments through Kazakhstan's
rail network. The government's Nurly Zhol programme, aimed at upgrading
the country's physical infrastructure, will further support the development
of the sector.
Beyond the broadening of sources of growth, incomes have also continued to
rise. Per capita incomes measured on a purchasing power parity basis have
grown by 3% on average over the past 5 years, to slightly above $27,500
in 2018. Higher incomes, despite the large oil price shock and currency
depreciation over 2015-16, support Moody's assessment that economic strength
is increasingly derived from other drivers than hydrocarbon-related revenue
Moody's expects the ongoing political stability, with a smooth and orderly
presidential succession that was completed in June, to sustain the efforts
Prospects for further economic reforms, implemented or planned, may support
diversification away from hydrocarbons to a greater extent and yield higher
income growth than Moody's currently expects. The government continues to
focus on economic diversification, and is offering tax and non-tax incentives,
including subsidised lending and skills training, to targeted sectors. It has
also set up the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which adopts
common English law for financial investments and transactions, in part aimed
at attracting foreign investments into the non-extractive sector. The AIFC
Court is staffed by British judges, while the International Arbitration
Centre comprise both foreign and local arbitrators.
The effectiveness of these measures in supporting robust growth, even during
periods of lower oil prices, will take time to materialise. It will partly
depend on a broader improvement in the strength of the country's institutions
that leads to a more effective allocation of resources in the economy. Combined
with ongoing, prudent and effective management of fiscal buffers, such trends
may point to credit metrics consistent with a higher rating.
RATIONALE FOR THE RATING AFFIRMATION
The affirmation of the Baa3 rating reflects credit strengths underscored by the
government's strong balance sheet with a low debt burden and sizeable financial
buffers, and, as explained above, robust economic strength; and credit
challenges stemming from continued exposure to oil markets, still low --
although gradually increasing -- institutional strength, ongoing banking sector
fragilities, and longer-term political transition risks.
Kazakhstan's general government debt as a share of GDP is among the lowest
compared with similarly rated peers and globally, while coverage of the debt
by assets at the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan -- the country's
sovereign wealth fund -- is high at around 1.7 times. Moody's expectation for
the government's fiscal account to be broadly balanced over 2019-21, with an
average deficit of 0.7% of GDP, points to stable debt levels of around 20-22%
of GDP over the same period and stable financial buffers.
Although the government's reliance on hydrocarbon revenue is declining, and
notwithstanding some signs of economic diversification, Kazakhstan's sovereign
credit profile remains highly exposed to developments in the oil market. The
hydrocarbon sector, which is dominated by oil production, accounts for around
60% of total goods and services exports, contributes to more than 40% of
consolidated government revenue, and is the primary source of income and
wealth that fuel large parts of the economy.
At the same time, despite increased policy flexibility, including flexible
exchange rates, that can buffer the impact of economic shocks, institutions
remain relatively weak, particularly in the control of corruption and
implementation of the rule of law.
Moreover, ongoing fragility in the banking system poses risks to ongoing, stable
growth and weighs on the sovereign's credit profile. Credit intermediation by
banks continues to be impaired, with loans to non-financial corporates still
contracting. Although nonperforming loans have declined and bank capitalisation
has increased, the amount of problem loans remains high, at an estimated 20%
of total loans across Moody's rated banks as of the end of 2018. Residual
uncertainty over asset quality issues and the impact on bank capital has
prompted the central bank to launch an asset quality review (AQR) for 14 banks
comprising more than 85% of banking system assets, which will be completed by
the end of 2019. If credible and effective, the AQR and following actions have
the potential to restore confidence in the system and increase the credit risk
appetite of banks.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
The rating would likely be upgraded if ongoing and further reforms were to
strengthen the institutional framework, policy credibility and effectiveness,
and economic competitiveness beyond Moody's current expectations. In
particular, reforms that materially advance economic diversification would
enhance the economy's resilience to potential shocks. Moreover, a material
reduction in banking sector risks, supported by prospects of a sustained
improvement in banking system health, more effective credit intermediation,
and enhancements to the sector's regulation and supervision would likely
put upward pressure on the rating.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN
The positive outlook signals that a rating downgrade is unlikely over the near
term. The outlook would likely be changed to stable if prospects of a
significant and long-lasting deterioration in Kazakhstan's economic and fiscal
metrics became increasingly probable, possibly stemming from a large, negative
oil price shock that the government were unable to cushion. Reemergence of
domestic political risks, with a negative impact on the government's reform
agenda and the business environment, would also likely put downward pressure
on the rating.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 27,550 (2018 Actual) (also known as Per
Real GDP growth (% change): 4.1% (2018 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 5.3% (2018 Actual)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: 2.7% (2018 Actual) (also known as Fiscal
Current Account Balance/GDP: 0% (2018 Actual) (also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 91.8% (2018 Actual)
Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since
On 19 August 2019, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the
Kazakhstan, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were:
The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have
materially increased. The issuer's institutional strength/ framework, have not
materially changed. The issuer's governance and/or management, have not
materially changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its
debt profile, has materially increased. The issuer's susceptibility to event
risks has not materially changed.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings
published in November 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used
in this credit rating action, if applicable.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this
announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating
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