MOODY'S ПРИСВОИЛО ЕВРООБЛИГАЦИЯМ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН ПРЕДВАРИТЕЛЬНЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ НА УРОВНЕ BAA2

09.10.14 14:17
/Moody's Investors Service, Франкфурт, 08.10.14, перевод и заголовок KASE/ Moody's Investors Service сегодня присвоило предварительный приоритетный необеспеченный (SU) рейтинг на уровне (P)Baa2 программе среднесрочных нот (MTN) Правительства Казахстана на сумму 10 миллиардов долларов США. В то же время, Moody's присвоило предварительный SU рейтинг на уровне (P)Baa2 первым двум суверенным выпускам Еврооблигаций в рамках данной MTN программы – 10-летним Еврооблигациям на сумму 1,5 миллиарда долларов США с датой погашения в 2024 г. и 30-летним Еврооблигациям на сумму 1 миллиард долларов США со сроком погашения в 2044 г. Настоящие рейтинги отражают рейтинг эмитента Baa2, присвоенный Правительству Казахстана, и подтвержденный на уровне Baa2 16-го августа 2013 г. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке. Frankfurt am Main, October 08, 2014 – Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a provisional senior unsecured (SU) (P)Baa2 rating to the Government of Kazakhstan's $10 billion medium term note (MTN) programme. Concurrently, Moody's also assigned a preliminary SU (P)Baa2 rating to the first two sovereign eurobonds issued under this MTN programme, a 10-year Eurobond in amount of $1.5 billion due in 2024 and a 30-year Eurobond in amount of $1 billion due in 2044. These ratings mirror the Baa2 issuer rating assigned to the Government of Kazakhstan, last affirmed at Baa2 on 16 August 2013. RATINGS RATIONALE Kazakhstan's key credit strengths include strong economic growth, the relatively large size of the economy, very low public debt and correspondingly high debt affordability. Its rating is also supported by its very sizable foreign-exchange reserves, which provide a significant buffer against external shocks. Kazakhstan's key credit constraint is its low institutional strength, as reflected in a high level of corruption, low government effectiveness and a weak rule of law. In addition, Kazakhstan's economy remains highly vulnerable to shocks from the oil sector, and susceptible to domestic political event risk related to the uncertainty over presidential succession. The positive outlook on Kazakhstan's Baa2 rating reflects (1) the country's favourable GDP growth outlook, driven by the expected increase in oil production from the Kashagan oil field; (2) the reduction in recent years in the contingent liabilities arising from the banking sector; and (3) the diminution of external risks in view of the elevated external assets in the National Oil Fund and the decline in external debt-to-GDP. WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN Upward pressure on the rating could develop if the country's institutional strength (e.g., the rule of law and the level of corruption) were to improve, and/or economic diversification were to broaden beyond commodities and consequently reduce economic volatility. In the short term, accelerating output from the Kashagan oil field, increasing FX reserves and greater clarity on presidential succession could exert upward pressure on the rating. Kazakhstan's government bond rating would come under downward pressure as a result of a prolonged period of low commodity prices, assuming unchanged economic diversification levels. The rating would also come under pressure from a material deterioration in the government's net worth (higher debt, lower assets), since this would erode its main advantage over similarly rated governments that have more robust institutional strength. Furthermore, a political crisis (e.g., related to the presidential succession) could also put downward pressure on the rating. GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 14,391 (2013 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 6% (2013 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 4.8% (2013 Actual) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: 5% (2013 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: -0.1% (2013 Actual) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 68.5 (2013 Actual) Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983. On 25 September 2014, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Government of Kazakhstan's new $10 billion Medium Term Note (MTN) Programme as well as the forthcoming Sovereign Eurobond in the amount of $2.5 billion, which will be the first drawdown of the MTN Programme. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. The committee also reviewed the documentation presented on the Medium Term Note (MTN) Program . This rating action concerns a new rating solicited by the issuer for a programme that was not in existence at the time that the sovereign release calendar was first published in December 2013, and is therefore being released on a date not listed in that publication. The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in September 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action, if applicable. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity. Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review. Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. [2014-10-09]