MOODY'S ПРИСВОИЛО ЕВРООБЛИГАЦИЯМ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН ПРЕДВАРИТЕЛЬНЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ НА УРОВНЕ BAA2
09.10.14 14:17
/Moody's Investors Service, Франкфурт, 08.10.14, перевод и заголовок
KASE/ Moody's Investors Service сегодня присвоило предварительный
приоритетный необеспеченный (SU) рейтинг на уровне (P)Baa2 программе
среднесрочных нот (MTN) Правительства Казахстана на сумму 10 миллиардов
долларов США. В то же время, Moody's присвоило предварительный SU рейтинг
на уровне (P)Baa2 первым двум суверенным выпускам Еврооблигаций в рамках
данной MTN программы – 10-летним Еврооблигациям на сумму 1,5 миллиарда
долларов США с датой погашения в 2024 г. и 30-летним Еврооблигациям
на сумму 1 миллиард долларов США со сроком погашения в 2044 г.
Настоящие рейтинги отражают рейтинг эмитента Baa2, присвоенный Правительству
Казахстана, и подтвержденный на уровне Baa2 16-го августа 2013 г.
Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке.
Frankfurt am Main, October 08, 2014 – Moody's Investors Service has today
assigned a provisional senior unsecured (SU) (P)Baa2 rating to the Government
of Kazakhstan's $10 billion medium term note (MTN) programme. Concurrently,
Moody's also assigned a preliminary SU (P)Baa2 rating to the first two sovereign
eurobonds issued under this MTN programme, a 10-year Eurobond in amount of
$1.5 billion due in 2024 and a 30-year Eurobond in amount of $1 billion due
in 2044.
These ratings mirror the Baa2 issuer rating assigned to the Government of
Kazakhstan, last affirmed at Baa2 on 16 August 2013.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Kazakhstan's key credit strengths include strong economic growth, the relatively
large size of the economy, very low public debt and correspondingly high debt
affordability. Its rating is also supported by its very sizable foreign-exchange
reserves, which provide a significant buffer against external shocks.
Kazakhstan's key credit constraint is its low institutional strength, as
reflected in a high level of corruption, low government effectiveness and a
weak rule of law. In addition, Kazakhstan's economy remains highly vulnerable
to shocks from the oil sector, and susceptible to domestic political event risk
related to the uncertainty over presidential succession.
The positive outlook on Kazakhstan's Baa2 rating reflects (1) the country's
favourable GDP growth outlook, driven by the expected increase in oil production
from the Kashagan oil field; (2) the reduction in recent years in the contingent
liabilities arising from the banking sector; and (3) the diminution of external
risks in view of the elevated external assets in the National Oil Fund and the
decline in external debt-to-GDP.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Upward pressure on the rating could develop if the country's institutional
strength (e.g., the rule of law and the level of corruption) were to improve,
and/or economic diversification were to broaden beyond commodities and
consequently reduce economic volatility. In the short term, accelerating output
from the Kashagan oil field, increasing FX reserves and greater clarity on
presidential succession could exert upward pressure on the rating.
Kazakhstan's government bond rating would come under downward pressure as
a result of a prolonged period of low commodity prices, assuming unchanged
economic diversification levels. The rating would also come under pressure from
a material deterioration in the government's net worth (higher debt, lower
assets), since this would erode its main advantage over similarly rated
governments that have more robust institutional strength. Furthermore,
a political crisis (e.g., related to the presidential succession) could
also put downward pressure on the rating.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 14,391 (2013 Actual) (also known as Per
Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 6% (2013 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 4.8% (2013 Actual)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: 5% (2013 Actual) (also known as Fiscal
Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: -0.1% (2013 Actual) (also known as External
Balance)
External debt/GDP: 68.5 (2013 Actual)
Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since
1983.
On 25 September 2014, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of
the Government of Kazakhstan's new $10 billion Medium Term Note (MTN)
Programme as well as the forthcoming Sovereign Eurobond in the amount of
$2.5 billion, which will be the first drawdown of the MTN Programme. The main
points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals,
including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's
institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer's
fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially
changed. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed.
The committee also reviewed the documentation presented on the Medium Term Note
(MTN) Program .
This rating action concerns a new rating solicited by the issuer for a programme
that was not in existence at the time that the sovereign release calendar was
first published in December 2013, and is therefore being released on a date not
listed in that publication.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings
published in September 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this
rating action, if applicable.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this
announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating
of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of
debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from
existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued
on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each
particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from
the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this
announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the
provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be
assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the
transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the
definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further
information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the
respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support
from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may
change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures
will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for
the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services,
Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating
analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for
additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
[2014-10-09]