Moody's подтвердило рейтинг долговых обязательств Республики Казахстан на уровне "Baa2" и изменило прогноз со "Стабильного" на "Позитивный"

/Moody's Investors Service, Франкфурт, 16.08.13, перевод и заголовок KASE/ Международное рейтинговое агентство Moody's Investors Service изменило прогноз рейтинга долговых обязательств Казахстана "Baa2" со "стабильного" на "позитивный". Одновременно рейтинг "Baa2" подтвержден на прежнем уровне. Основные причины для изменения прогноза: 1. Сниженный риск суверенного баланса сохраняющихся условных обязательств в банковском секторе; 2. Повышение внешней ликвидности страны в результате увеличения активов национального нефтяного фонда и резкого сокращения долга банковского сектора; и 3. Благоприятный среднесрочный прогноз роста ВВП в результате роста добычи нефти. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке. Frankfurt am Main, August 16, 2013 – Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook on Kazakhstan's Baa2 government bond rating to positive from stable. At the same time, Moody's also affirmed the Baa2 rating. The key drivers for the outlook change are: 1. Reduced risk to the sovereign balance sheet from remaining contingent liabilities in the banking sector; 2. The country's improved external liquidity position due to an increase in the National Oil Fund's assets and a sharp reduction of external banking sector debt; and 3. The favorable medium-term GDP growth outlook due to increasing oil production. RATINGS RATIONALE – RATIONALE FOR CHANGE IN OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE The main factor underlying Moody's assignment of a positive rating outlook is the reduced risk to the sovereign balance sheet from contingent liabilities in the banking sector. This has led the rating agency to (1) lower its assessment of "susceptibility to event risk" to "low" from "medium"; and (2) change the rating range to "A3-Baa2" from "Baa2-Ba1" previously. This removes a key constraint on Kazakhstan's Baa2 rating and as a consequence, positive developments in other rating factors such as the economic, institutional or fiscal sphere can now lead to upward pressure on the rating. The reduced risk to the sovereign arises from the decline in the banking sector's recapitalization needs following the debt restructurings of a number of Kazakh banks, the sector's recapitalization and deleveraging since the start of the crisis in 2007. The rating agency now estimates recapitalization costs below 5% of GDP (even in an adverse shock scenario where the total capitalization of the banking system would be depleted), which implies only a low burden on the sovereign balance sheet given the fiscal buffer of 30% of 2013 GDP accumulated in the National Oil Fund as of July 2013. Moreover, the sovereign demonstrated during the crisis that it can effectively ring-fence its balance sheet from trouble in the banking sector by baling-in private creditors. While this had negative repercussions for the support uplift factored into Moody's ratings of the country's banks, it was credit positive for the sovereign. The second driver for the outlook change is the country's improved external liquidity position, with the National Oil Fund more than doubling in recent years (to $64 billion in July 2013 from $30 billion at end 2010) and banking sector external liabilities declining to $8.8 billion in May 2013 from a peak of $45.5 billion in October 2007. Consequently, total external debt declined to 68% of GDP in 2012 from 97% in 2009. Hence, external liquidity has become less of a constraint for the government's financial strength, which is supported by Kazakhstan's very strong fiscal metrics, including sustained fiscal surpluses (4%- 5% of GDP expected in coming years), a very low debt-to-GDP ratio (2012: 12%) and very low debt-servicing costs. The third driver for the outlook change is Kazakhstan's favorable economic growth prospects. Moody's expects annual GDP growth of around 5% in the next five years. A key driver supporting high growth rates in the medium term will be the Kashagan oil field, which is expected to come on stream later this year. According to the World Bank, production from this field will increase steadily, starting with around 75,000 barrels a day to a total of 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025. This compares with Kazakhstan's current total output of 1.7 million barrels a day in 2012. While Moody's has been cautious to factor in credit support to this new field, recent news reports quoting the oil minister suggest that production will begin this year following delays since 2005. Another positive on the economic front is that Kazakhstan has successfully improved its ranking in international surveys on competitiveness and the business climate in recent years. – KEY CREDIT CHALLENGES Kazakhstan's key credit challenges are a lack of economic diversification, which is partly related to the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the economy, and Kazakhstan's low institutional strength. Significant improvements in this regard would be credit positive. Furthermore, the weak global environment, which is also important to Kazakhstan's outlook, remains a risk factor. Moody's has also revised upwards to "low to medium" its assessment of Kazakhstan's susceptibility to political and economic event risks, from "low" previously. The reassessment of susceptibility to political event risks mainly reflects uncertainty over the succession of its long-standing president, as there are no clear succession plans, unlike in other oil-exporting countries, as well as the opaque distribution of powers within the political elite. Moody's reassessment of susceptibility to economic event risks reflects the country's vulnerability to oil price shocks via lower GDP growth, lower fiscal and foreign-exchange revenues and risks to the economic viability of oil-extraction projects. Furthermore, the improvements in external liquidity and the banking sector are not without caveats and hence supported a positive outlook rather than an upgrade. While the assets of the National Oil Fund have significantly increased, there has been pressure on the exchange rate and net international reserves have declined to $24.9 billion in July 2013, which is well below the recent peak of $34.8 billion in February 2012. Moreover, notwithstanding the sovereign's reduced susceptibility to a banking crisis, it is important to note that the sector is still undergoing a difficult period with modest credit growth to corporates, poor asset quality with problem loans (overdue and part of restructured loans) at 40%, weak profitability and low capitalisation. Furthermore, high growth rates in loans to households (27% year- over-year in June), which are still small in absolute size, pose risks to asset quality in the future. GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 13,892 (2012 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 5% (2012 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 6% (2012 Actual) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: 4.6% (2012 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: 3.0% (2012 Actual) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 67.7% (2012 Actual) Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983. On 13 August 2013, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Kazakhstan, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially increased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially increased. The issuer has become less susceptible to event risks. Other views raised included: The issuer's institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer's governance and/or management, have not materially changed. While susceptibility to risks in the banking system has declined, Moody's sees slightly increased susceptibility to political and economic event risk. The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in September 2008. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action, if applicable. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity. Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review. Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. [2013-08-19]