Fitch повысило прогноз изменения рейтингов Казахстана до "позитивного"

/REUTERS, Лондон, 19.11.03/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch повысило прогноз изменения рейтингов Казахстана до "позитивного" со "стабильного", сообщило Fitch. Долгосрочный валютный рейтинг страны "ВВ+" находится на одну ступень ниже инвестиционного уровня, переход в который облегчает привлечение портфельных инвестиций в страну. Из трех ведущих мировых рейтинговых агентств инвестиционный рейтинг Казахстану пока присвоило лишь Moody's. Рейтинг от Standard & Poor's пока на верхней ступени спекулятивной зоны, прогноз - стабильный. "Изменение прогноза отражает продолжающееся улучшение ключевых экономических показателей. Рост ВВП Казахстана, как ожидается, останется одним из самых быстрых среди всех стран, оцениваемых Fitch, благодаря большому притоку инвестиций и высоким ценам на нефть", - говорится в сообщении Fitch. Ниже приводиться оригинальный текст сообщения Fitch на английском языке. FITCH PLACES KAZAKHSTAN ON POSITIVE OUTLOOK 19 Nov 2003 5:53 AM (EST) Fitch Ratings-London-November 19, 2003: Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, has today revised the Outlook on the Republic of Kazakhstan's Long- term ratings to Positive from Stable. At the same time, the agency has affirmed the country's Long-term foreign and local currency ratings at 'BB+' and 'BBB-' (BBB minus), respectively. The Short-term foreign currency rating of 'B' is also affirmed. The change in Outlook reflects the continuing improvement in key economic indicators. GDP growth in Kazakhstan is expected to remain one of the strongest of any country rated by Fitch, driven by strong investment and buoyant oil prices. The authorities have managed high oil prices prudently, and a sizeable general government budget surplus is expected this year, allowing for a large accumulation of assets in the national oil fund and a reduction in government debt to GDP. At around 14% of GDP, government debt is well below the average level of its rated peers, and is expected to remain stable. Strong oil prices and investment are generating balance of payment surpluses, and a rapid accumulation of foreign reserves. Together with the growing assets in the Oil Fund, liquid official foreign assets should total around USD8 billion by end-2003. The public sector is already a net external creditor, to the tune of 15% of GDP at the end of this year, and Fitch expects this to double in size by 2005. Overall levels of external debt are relatively high largely reflecting inter-company lending by international oil companies to their Kazak subsidiaries. However, the associated debt service burden is closely linked to the performance of the oil sector, mitigating the potential risks associated with foreign indebtedness. The economy remains closely linked to oil price developments, and a deep and prolonged slump in prices could be highly damaging. Its economic base is less broad than many of its rated peers, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future, despite government efforts to diversify the economy. However, improving public finances and growing external public assets mean that the country is in a stronger position to absorb external shocks than was the case two to three years ago. Kazakhstan should be well insulated from a fall in oil prices to USD15 per barrel from the current USD29. Provided that the correct policy responses are adopted, the country could even absorb a fall to USD10 per barrel for perhaps 12-18 months. The capacity of the economy to absorb shocks is also enhanced by the reforms undertaken to improve the quality of the financial sector, including pension reform and the development of a corporate bond market. Kazakhstan's economic and financial indicators are strong and improving, but a number of qualitative issues continue to weigh on its credit standing. Civil institutions are weak and the lack of transparency and broader governance issues remain a source of concern, including the extent of quasi-fiscal operations by the broader public sector. Political succession risk also appears to be higher than most rated peers, and while Fitch recognises that broad political stability is likely over the coming five years, rising tensions and instability cannot be wholly discounted. While these issues have so far had a limited impact on policymaking and implementation, they could prompt a more populist policy stance, not least given that the oil industry is highly capital intensive and thus generates relatively few employment opportunities. Nonetheless, on-going efforts to improve transparency, a further build-up of official foreign assets, both in the Oil Fund and the National Bank's international reserves, along with an expected substantial increase in oil production and exports in 2006 support the Positive Outlook. CONTACT: Nick Eisinger, London, Tel: +44 20 7417 4341; Morgan Harting, New York: +1 212 908 0820. [2003-11-19]