Moody's сохранило негативный прогноз для банковской системы Казахстана

/KASE, 04.08.09/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Moody's Investors Service сохранило "Негативный" прогноз для банковской системы Казахстана, отражающий ухудшение качества активов, снижение прибыли, низкий уровень капитализации и ликвидности. Ожидается что в кратко- и среднесрочный период условия финансирования для банков останутся сложными из-за маловероятности рефинансирования иностранными инвесторами и ограниченности финансовых средств у местных корпораций и розничных потребителей по причине значительного снижения цен на товары за последние годы. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке. MOODY'S MAINTAINS NEGATIVE OUTLOOK FOR KAZAKH BANKING SYSTEM /Moody's Investors Service, London, August 03, 09/ - The fundamental credit outlook for the Kazakh banking system is negative, reflecting its deteriorating asset quality, declining earnings, weak capitalisation and stressed liquidity profile. Funding conditions for banks are set to remain difficult in the short/medium term, as cross-border refinancing is unlikely and financial resources may be limited for local corporate and retail customers given the significant decline in commodity prices over the past year, says Moody's Investors Service in its new Banking System Outlook on Kazakhstan. Moody's negative outlook for the Kazakh banking system expresses the rating agency's view on the likely future direction of fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months. It does not represent a projection of rating upgrades versus downgrades. The Kazakh banking system remains one of the worst hit by the current financial crisis. Indeed, its notable shortcomings - dependence on foreign capital markets for funding, overexposure to the construction and real estate sectors, undiversified economy, weak corporate governance and regulatory oversight - resulted in the default of three large financial institutions in H1 2009. BTA Bank, Alliance Bank and Astana Finance have since announced plans to restructure their foreign debt. BTA Bank was the largest financial institution in the country, with around a 25% market share of its total assets, and its default was a major setback to the stability of the banking system and the confidence of depositors and investors. Most Kazakh banks are suffering the same key problems, says Moody's, namely their deteriorating asset quality, a lack of funding and a decline in earnings. These problems inevitably depress liquidity and capitalisation. A number of large banks, which were historically funded by foreign capital markets, now refinance their maturing market debt with deposits from the government or government-owned companies (mainly commodities exporters). Nonetheless, "this arrangement provides only a short-term solution for the banks' funding problems", says Armen Dallakyan, a Moody's lead analyst for the Kazakh banking sector. "These deposits account for up to a third of some banks' total funding. However, they are not a sustainable resource, as funding problems may take their toll on commodity producers and, eventually, on the government itself". The general asset quality of Kazakh banks is still in decline, and the rating agency believes the banks need higher loan loss provisions than they are currently setting aside. As banks' earnings decline and loan loss charges increase, there could be even more downward pressure on their capitalisation. "The overall banking system is likely to shrink substantially in the medium term", says Mr. Dallakyan, "as a large number of problem loans are written off and a number of banks are restructured or liquidated. It is likely that the role of foreign-owned banks in the Kazakh banking system will increase". However, although there has already been some sign of interest in the Kazakh banking system from Russia, China and the Middle East, Moody's believes further action will largely depend on global developments in risk appetite and commodity pricing. The worst of the financial crisis is not yet over for Kazakhstan - and further bank defaults, restructuring and bankruptcies cannot be ruled out in the near term. The principal methodologies used in rating the Kazakh banking system are the "Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology" and "Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology", which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies sub-directory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory. The "Banking System Outlook: Kazakhstan" is available on www.moodys.com London Reynold R. Leegerstee Managing Director Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 London Armen L. Dallakyan Asst Vice President - Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 [2009-08-04]