MOODY'S ПОНИЗИЛО СУВЕРЕННЫЙ РЕЙТИНГ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН ПО ОБЯЗАТЕЛЬСТВАМ В НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ И ИНОСТРАННОЙ ВАЛЮТЕ ДО "BAA2", ПРОГНОЗ "НЕГАТИВНЫЙ"
13.05.09 14:05
/Moody's Investors Service, Нью-Йорк, 12.05.09, перевод и заголовок
KASE/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Moody's Investors
Service снизило суверенный рейтинг Казахстана в национальной валюте до "Baa2"
с "Baa1", как и рейтинг в иностранной валюте и сменило прогноз на
"Негативный". Снижение рейтинга отражает продолжающуюся
неустойчивость банковской системы Казахстана из-за больших
краткосрочных долговых обязательств в иностранной валюте.
Максимальный потолок рейтинга страны в иностранной валюте для
облигаций был снижен до "Baa1" с негативным прогнозом с "A2",
потолок облигаций и банковских депозитов в местной валюте был
снижен до "A2" с "A3", соответственно. Кроме того, прогноз "Ba1"
банковских депозитов в иностранной валюте был изменен на
"Негативный" со "Стабильного".
Последнее изменение рейтинга Казахстана было осуществлено 09 июня
2006 года, когда Moody's повысило рейтинг государственных облигаций
Казахстана в иностранной валюте до "Ваа2" с "Ваа3", повысив потолок
долгосрочного рейтинга страны в иностранной валюте для облигаций до
"А2" с "Ваа1".
Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском языке.
Moody's unifies Kazakhstan's government ratings at Baa2, outlook negative
/Moody's Investors Service, New York, May 12, 09/ - Moody's Investors
Service has downgraded Kazakhstan's local currency government rating to
Baa2 from Baa1, the same as its foreign currency rating, and changed the
outlook to negative. The rating action reflects continuing fragility in the
Kazakh banking system because of its large short-term foreign currency debt
obligations.
"The rating changes also take into account the weaknesses inherent in a
macroeconomy that depends heavily on the export of commodities whose
prices have collapsed sharply," said Moody's Vice President Jonathan
Schiffer. "Moreover, the government's financing gap may widen considerably
because of overly optimistic forecasts for the budget outcome."
He said shortfalls in government revenues connected with worsening growth
prospects may come at a time of increasing stresses in the banking system,
as non-performing loans grow rapidly.
"With two of the top four banks in default on their foreign currency
obligations and in government administration and with resolution of each bank's
problems and status far from certain, the health of the banking system may
worsen," said Schiffer. "If this combines with a worse-than-expected current
account deficit, speculation against the currency may build alongside
pressure for greater government financial intervention into both the financial
system and real economy."
All this, he cautioned, could lead to a substantial drawdown in Kazakhstan's
foreign exchange reserves.
In related rating actions, the foreign currency country ceiling for bonds was
downgraded to Baa1 with a negative outlook from A2 and the local currency
country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits both were also downgraded by
one notch to A2 and A3, respectively. Also, the outlook on the Ba1 foreign
currency country ceiling for bank deposits was changed to negative from stable.
The last rating action taken with respect to the Government of Kazakhstan
was implemented on June 9, 2006, when Moody's upgraded the foreign
currency government bond rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and the foreign
currency country ceiling for bonds and notes to A2 from Baa1.
The principal methodology used in rating Kazakhstan was Moody's
Sovereign Bond Rating methodology, published in September 2008 and
available on www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies
directory, in the Ratings Methodologies sub-directory. Other methodologies
and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this
issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory
on Moody's website.
Rating actions on related issuers will follow this announcement in due course.
London
Pierre Cailleteau
Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
New York
Jonathan R. Schiffer
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
[2009-05-13]