Moody's дало негативный прогноз банковскому сектору Казахстана

/REUTERS, Алматы, Олжас Ауезов, перевод Юлия Заславская, 20.10.08/ - Рейтинговое агентство Moody's сообщило, что его прогноз относительно банковского сектора Казахстана негативен из-за проблем с качеством активов, а также в связи со снижением цен на сырье. В предыдущем докладе в ноябре прошлого года Moody's заявило, что его прогноз по системе - "от стабильного до негативного". "Поскольку ликвидность и доступность кредитов остается ключевой трудностью по всему миру, мы считаем, что ликвидность и качество активов представляют собой главную проблему для кредитоспособности банков Казахстана", - цитирует сообщение агентства слова аналитика Moody's Армена Даллакяна. Казахстанские банки сильно пострадали от мирового кризиса ликвидности после нескольких лет быстрого роста, которому способствовали агрессивные зарубежные заимствования. Moody's сообщило, что давление на качество активов усилилось, так как многие заемщики, как корпоративные, так и розничные, не могут выплатить долги. Однако высокие прибыли банков защищают их от возможных убытков. "Moody's верит, что нынешние уровни капитала и ожидаемые прибыли казахских банков обеспечивают достаточную защиту против дальнейшего роста безнадежных долгов с предполагаемых 15 до 20-25 процентов в совокупной книге займов". Агентство считает, что еще слишком рано судить, как $10-миллиардный пакет помощи, о котором правительство объявило на прошлой неделе, повлияет на банковские ставки. Прогноз агентства отражает его представления о фундаментальных кредитных условиях в ближайшие 12-18 месяцев. Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения агентства Moody's на английском языке. MOODY'S REPORTS: NEGATIVE OUTLOOK FOR KAZAKHSTAN'S BANKING SYSTEM London, 20 October 2008 - The fundamental credit outlook for the Kazakh banking system is negative, reflecting its weakening asset quality and stressed funding profile, says Moody's Investors Service in its new Banking System Outlook for Kazakhstan. The rating agency expects funding conditions for Kazakh banks to remain difficult in the short to medium term as cross-border refinancing is unlikely to be an option over this period and lower commodity prices would constrain funding from local corporate and retail customers. Moody's negative outlook for the Kazakh banking system expresses the rating agency's view on the likely future direction of fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months. It does not represent a projection of rating upgrades versus downgrades. "Over the past year, since the beginning of the global credit crisis, many Kazakh banks have undergone a tough survival test as the virtually closed international capital markets have provided few opportunities for them to refinance their maturing foreign debt, equivalent to 10% of the banking system's total funding at the beginning of the crisis," explains Armen Dallakyan, a Moody's Analyst and author of the report. Moody's expects funding growth from internal resources to remain moderate if the lower commodity prices limit energy and mining companies' cash flows into their Kazakh bank accounts. Nevertheless, Moody's believes most Kazakh banks navigated that phase of the crisis relatively well as some of them were able to partly refinance their maturing debt and/or receive capital injections from their shareholders and liquidity support from the authorities. Many also increased their loan books during this period, although the system's overall lending growth weakened from the very high pace recorded from 2005 to H1 2007. "As liquidity and availability of credit remains a key issue globally, we believe that liquidity and asset quality pose a major challenge for Kazakh banks' credit standing. Since Q3 2007, all banks in Kazakhstan have been experiencing a deterioration in their loan quality, albeit to varying extents," Mr Dallakyan says. Many corporate borrowers, especially in the overheated construction segment, have found it very difficult to repay their bank loans. The quality of mortgage and consumer loans has also been deteriorating very sharply. Kazakh banks continue to report quite strong, albeit declining, profitability, mainly thanks to strong interest income generation and cost control. The reported strong operating income is currently the main cushion for accommodating increasing loan loss charges. Consequently Moody's believes that the current capital levels and expected earnings of the Kazakh banks provide a reasonable cushion against a further rise in non-performing loans from an estimated 15% of the aggregate loan book to 20%-25%. Moody's notes that, since the start of the credit crisis, the Kazakh government has taken a number of measures to stabilise the liquidity situation in the banking system and to assist the battered construction companies. On 13 October 2008, the president announced that US$10 billion would be allocated to supporting the country's banking system and the economy as a whole. Until details of this plan are available, Moody's will be unable to assess its impact on banks' ratings, if any. London Reynold R. Leegerstee Managing Director Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 London Armen L. Dallakyan Asst Vice President - Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 [2008-10-20]