FITCH повысило долгосрочные рейтинги Казахстана

/REUTERS, Нью-Йорк, 14.10.02/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch повысило долгосрочный рейтинг Казахстана в иностранной валюте до "ВВ+" с "ВВ", говорится в сообщении агентства. Долгосрочный рейтинг Казахстана в местной валюте был повышен до "ВВВ-" с "ВВ+", в то время, как краткосрочный рейтинг остался на уровне "В". Прогноз изменения всех рейтингов остается стабильным. В сообщении Fitch говорится, что повышение суверенных рейтингов отражает укрепление финансовой динамики, сокращение государственного долга и хорошо подкрепленные позиции экономики Казахстана за рубежом. Ниже следует текст сообщения Fitch на английском языке: NEW YORK, Oct 11 - Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, has upgraded the Long- term foreign currency ratings of the Republic of Kazakhstan to 'BB+' from 'BB'. The Long-term local currency rating has also been raised to BBB-' (BBB minus) from 'BB+', while the Short- term rating remains at 'B'. The Outlook on the ratings remains Stable. The improvement in the sovereign ratings is driven by strengthening fiscal dynamics, a fall in general government debt and a well-supported external economic position. Many of the positive developments of the past two years have stemmed from buoyant global oil prices, but the government has managed these windfalls wisely. Tight expenditure controls have closed budget shortfalls, allowing for net repayments of public external debt and limited net local debt issuance. General government debt is expected to end 2002 at around 19% of GDP, well below the median for the 'BB/BB+' rating range. The country continues to generate sizeable balance of payments surpluses, providing for healthy increases in foreign exchange reserves and growing foreign assets of the National Oil Fund. Consequently, the net external creditor status of the public sector is strengthening and should end the year equivalent to around 15% of current account earnings. GDP growth, budgetary developments and the balance of payments are all highly dependent on oil and thus vulnerable to falls in global prices. However, the country is now better prepared to cope with lower oil prices, and if they were to fall to USD15 per barrel, there is sufficient scope within the National Fund to support the budget for two years or more, even without expenditure adjustments. A fall in oil prices to USD10 per barrel for a prolonged period would, however, cause many more problems. As the National Fund comprises foreign assets, it also supports the balance of payments. Fitch's projections suggest that up to USD450 million would be available for 'stabilisation' purposes in 2003 in case of adverse fiscal or balance of payments developments. The Outlook on the ratings is Stable as the agency believes that Kazakhstan's transition to investment grade has some way to go. The economy is not yet sufficiently robust to offer the insulation from shocks implied by investment-grade status, and while the National Fund has grown rapidly, it is still relatively small and thus able to offer only limited budget and balance of payments support. Low transparency and weak public institutions also need to be addressed, while there are some concerns over increased tension associated with a future political transition. [2002-10-14]