S&P ИЗМЕНИЛО ПРОГНОЗ РЕЙТИНГОВ КАЗАХСТАНА НА "ПОЗИТИВНЫЙ"

/REUTERS, Лондон, 25.06.02/ - Международное рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor's пересмотрело прогноз изменения рейтингов Казахстана на "позитивный" со "стабильного", говорится в сообщении S&P. Помимо этого, S&P подтвердило рейтинги Казахстана: в иностранной валюте - на уровне "ВВ", в местной - на уровне "ВВ+". "Чистые внешние активы государственного сектора должны достигнуть в 2003 году примерно 10 процентов текущего счета благодаря продолжающемуся экономическому росту и связанным с ним увеличением налоговых поступлений", - говорит аналитик S&P Люк Маршан. Ниже приводится текст сообщения S&P на английском языке: (The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, June 25 - Standard & Poor's said today it revised its outlook on the Republic of Kazakhstan to positive from stable. The action reflects the consistent strengthening of Kazakhstan's public sector net external asset position. In addition, general government debt is expected to remain moderate on the back of continued prudent fiscal policy. At the same time, the double-'B'/'B' foreign currency and double-'B'-plus/'B' local currency issuer credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Kazakhstan were affirmed. "Public sector net external assets are expected to reach about 10% of current account receipts by 2003, on the back of continued economic growth and the resource-based tax revenues that follow," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Luc Marchand. "Moreover, fiscal prudence is underpinned by the accumulation of oil and tax windfalls in a National Fund, which will smooth the impact of oil price volatility." The general government deficit is estimated at about 1.0% of GDP in 2002 (about 2.2% excluding tax revenue transfers to the National Fund) and is expected to remain moderate in 2003, at about 1.6% (about 2.0% excluding tax revenue transfers to the National Fund). General government debt, projected at a manageable 17.8% of GDP at year-end 2002, is expected to remain broadly stable over the next few years, on the back of moderate deficits. Kazakhstan's credit standing is also supported by its robust levels of external liquidity. The current account balance has returned to deficit (about 5.5% of GDP in 2002), but will be comfortably financed by foreign direct investment inflows of about 6%-7% of GDP. On the financial side, continued prudent policies should keep inflation broadly stable, with price growth estimated at 5.6% in 2002 and 5.9% in 2003. The government's commitment to market-oriented reforms, as well as improved confidence in the banking sector and an increasing deposit base, should deepen the financial system and bolster economic growth. Nevertheless, the highly centralized decision-making process and a lack of transparency, along with a weak institutional and legal system, continue to constrain the country's creditworthiness. This is compounded by a weak economic structure and low income levels, as well as limited revenue and expenditure flexibility, due to the narrow domestic revenue base and latent expenditure pressures. "The expected strengthening of Kazakhstan's external position and continued prudent fiscal policies could support a rating upgrade over the medium term," added Mr. Marchand. "A significant improvement in the business environment, an acceleration of structural reforms (including development of the non-oil and gas sectors), and further strengthening of the banking system would also be positives for the country's credit standing." [2002-06-25]