Fitch может снизить рейтинг Казахойла и повысить - Казтрансойл

/REUTERS, Нью-Йорк, 22.02.02/ - Международное агентство Fitch сообщило в пятницу о возможности снижения рейтинга основного необеспеченного долга казахской нефтяной компании Казахойл и повышения рейтинговой оценки аналогичной категории долговых обязательств трубопроводной компании Казтрансойл. В настоящее время рейтинг основной необеспеченной задолженности компаний Казахойл и Казтрансойл установлен агентством на отметке "ВВ" и "ВВ-" соответственно. Поводом для решения Fitch послужил недавний указ президента Казахстана Нурсултана Назарбаева о слиянии Казахойл и холдинга Транспорт нефти и газа, в состав которого входит Казтрансойл. "Предлагаемая комбинация, означающая объединение потенциальной стабильности доходов... Казтрансойл с рентабельностью нефтедобывающих операций Казахойл, действительно сулит некоторые умеренно благоприятные перспективы для рейтинговых оценок обеих компаний", - отмечается в пресс-релизе Fitch. "В то же время форма и сущность нового образования все оставляет немало вопросов, некоторые из которых могут оказать негативное влияние на рейтинги Казахойл". В минувшую среду своим указом президент Назарбаев создал компанию Казмунайгаз, в которую вошли национальная нефтедобывающая компания Казахойл и две транспортные монополии Казтрансойл и Казтрансгаз, объединенные в холдинг Транспорт нефти и газа. Структура, объединяющая активы на сумму несколько миллиардов долларов США, призвана стать одним из ведущих игроков на бурно развивающемся энергетическом рынке Казахстана, добывшем в прошлом году около 40 миллионов тонн нефти и планирующем утроить производство к 2015 году. Ниже следует сообщение Fitch на английском языке: NEW YORK, Feb 22 - Fitch Ratings has today placed the 'BB' Senior Unsecured Debt rating of NNK Kazakhoil (including the EUR125 million guaranteed notes issued by Kazakhoil Finance BV) on Rating Watch Negative. Simultaneously the BB-' (BB minus) Senior Unsecured Debt rating of NTOC KazTransOil (applied also to the USD150m guaranteed notes issued by KazTransOil Finance BV) is placed on Rating Watch Positive. The Short-term rating of KazTransOil is affirmed at 'B'. This action follows the announced decree by the President of Kazakhstan to merge Kazakhoil and KazTransNeftegaz, the parent company of KazTransOil. The companies expect the formal combination procedure to take up to two months to complete. While the timing of the decree shows some government insensitivity relative to Kazakhoil's recent debut bond issue, the existing ratings already incorporate a tolerance band for the peculiarities of the Kazakh corporate environment. Importantly, the ownership status within the group of the three material subsidiaries - which have formed the core of Fitch analysis of Kazakhoil - has not been questioned. Nonetheless, the combination is a reversal of a government decision in 1999, which itself reversed KazTransOil out of Kazakhoil ownership, only a few months after KazTransOil had been injected into the oil concern. Put options relating to change of control in both companies' bonds relate to continuing 50% ownership (direct or indirect) by the Kazakh state, and are thus unaffected by the plan. A new put option is being considered for the Kazakhoil bonds, which would grant investors the right to put the bond to Kazakhoil in the event of the downgrade related specifically to this merger. The proposed combination does offer some mildly positive perspectives for the ratings of both Kazakhoil and KazTransOil, principally arising from the potential stability of revenues from KazTransoil's regulated pipeline business being combined with the lucrative upstream business of Kazakhoil. Fitch has, however, performed no due diligence on the other entities to be incorporated into the group, which, while unlikely to be of material size when compared with either Kazakhoil or KazTransOil, are equally unlikely to have stand-alone credit profiles higher than that of Kazakhoil. Additionally, the possibility of a common stress period (i.e. low prices) affecting both entities remains material, and the likely benefits would at best solidify the rating of the group and constituent companies at the 'BB' level, which could involve an upgrade of the current unenhanced ratings of KazTransOil. In the meantime, a substantial number of questions remain to be answered on the form and substance of the new entity, some of which could exercise negative influence on the current, State support enhanced ratings of Kazakhoil. The Rating Watch will be resolved following analysis of further details on the exact corporate structure, including cross-guarantees, structural subordination issues and any possible ring-fencing of assets; the pro forma credit profile of the other entities being incorporated into the new group with Kazakhoil and KazTransOil; and the confirmation or cessation of existing government support undertakings. Based on current information, Fitch does not believe that the ratings of Kazakhoil would be downgraded by more than one notch in the event of a downgrade.