ANALYSIS: As of May 1, 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing is KZT714.8 bn. or $5, 741.8 m

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, May 5, 06/ - As of May 1, 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled to current prices to KZT714.4 bn., or $5,741.8 m. at the rate of KZT124.42 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from February 2006 till April 2006, on MEUJKAM - from May 2005 till April 2006. Since April 1 to April 30 of 2006 total debt (including change of the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT77.7 bn. (+12.21%), in dollar equivalent - by 785.2 m. (+15.84%). Corresponding indicators of change in debt in March of 2006 made plus KZT56.0 bn. (plus 9.65%) or plus $500.3 m. (plus 11.23%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and strusture of debt Change ---------------------------- for the *Currency of as of period ------------ Apr 28, 06 as of --------------- servi- ----------------- Mar 31, 06 Issuer issue cing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 132.234 32,3 146.255 -14,020.3 -9.6 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 441.872 66,9 446.061 -4,189.2 -0.9 incl. face value 356.201 50,9 361.406 -5,204.5 -1.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 310.596 44,8 315.146 -4,550.0 -1.4 also, euronotes USD USD 45.605 6,1 46.260 -654.5 -1.4 incl. servicing 85.670 16,0 84.655 +1,015.3 +1.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 78.060 15,0 76.935 +1,124.5 +1.5 also, euronotes USD USD 7.610 1,0 7.720 -109.2 -1.4 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 6.546 0,9 6.640 -93.9 -1.4 incl. face value USD KZT 5.644 0,8 5.725 -81.0 -1.4 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.902 0,1 0.915 -12.9 -1.4 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.172 0,3 2.203 -31.2 -1.4 also, face value USD KZT 1.957 0,3 1.985 -28.1 -1.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.215 0,02 0.218 -3.1 -1.4 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. akimat USD KZT 4.374 0,6 4.437 -62.8 -1.4 also, face value USD KZT 3.687 0,5 3.740 -52.9 -1.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.687 0,1 0.697 -9.9 -1.4 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 580.652 100,0 598.955 -18,303.4 -3.06 incl. face value 494.080 83,9 513.385 -19,305.8 -3.8 incl. servicing 86.572 16,1 85.570 +1,002.3 +1.2 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 527.436 92,9 544.976 -17,539.7 -3.2 also, face value KZT KZT 448.475 77,8 467.126 -18,651.3 -4.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 78.962 15,1 77.850 +1,111.6 +1.4 --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 53.215 7,1 53.979 -763.7 -1.4 also, face value USD USD 45.605 6,1 46.260 -654.5 -1.4 also, servicing USD USD 7.610 1,0 7.720 -109.2 -1.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of Feb 28, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.30 per dollar, as of Jan 31, 06 - at KZT132.17. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and strusture of debt Change ---------------------------- for the *Currency of as of period ------------ Apr 30, 06 as of --------------- servi- ----------------- Mar 31, 06 Issuer issue cing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % --------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 1,852.8 32.3 1,425.8 +426,950.2 +29.9 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ Ministry of Finance 3,839.3 66.9 3,480.8 +358,526.2 +10.3 incl. face value 2,919.8 50.9 2,768.4 +151,439.1 +5.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,569.8 44.8 2,418.4 +151,439.1 +6.3 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 6.1 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 919.5 16.0 712.4 +207,087.1 +29.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 861.1 15.0 654.0 +207,087.1 +31.7 also, euronotes USD USD 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 49.72 0.9 49.98 -259.4 -0.52 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 0.8 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 6.4 0.1 6.7 -265.3 -4.0 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 16.4 0.3 16.7 -259.4 -1.6 also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.3 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.384 0.02 1.650 -265.3 -16.1 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ incl. Atyrau obl. akimat USD KZT 33.3 0.6 33.3 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 5.0 0.1 5.0 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ TOTAL 5,741.8 100.0 4,956.6 +785,217.0 +15.84 incl. face value 4,815.9 83.9 4,237.5 +578,395.2 +13.6 incl. servicing 925.9 16.1 719.1 +206,821.8 +28.8 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ OR --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,333.4 92.9 4,548.2 +785,217.0 +17.3 also, face value KZT KZT 4,465.9 77.8 3,887.5 +578,395.2 +14.9 also, servicing KZT KZT 867.5 15.1 660.7 +206,821.8 +31.3 --------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ------------ ---------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 408.4 7.1 408.4 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 6.1 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in April by amounts of floatation was KZT230, 061.4 m. (in March- KZT217, 861.2.2 m.). At that the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT183, 149.8 m. (KZT167, 290.1 m.). April's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was positive KZT46, 911.6 m. Corresponding index of March - positive KZT50, 571.7 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In April the Ministry of finance borrowed in April due to floating of MECAM KZT22, 946.1 m (in March -KZT 18,000.0) and paid face value of bonds and coupon remunerations at the sum of KZT15, 308.6 m (KZT19, 082.3 m). April's net-borrowing balance of Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT54, 514.9. The corresponding index of March is plus KZT49, 456.5 m. The above data certifies that April on the primary market of GS market was similar to March. The National Bank uses its notes as one of the main instruments of sterilization of the market from "excessive" money. IRBIS agency draws the attention to its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-05-05]