ANALYSIS: As of March 1, 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing is KZT580.7 bn. or $4,456.3 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 6, 06/ - As of March 1, 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT580.7 bn., or $4,456.3 m. at the rate of KZT130.30 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from December 2005 till February 2006, on MEUJKAM - from March 2005 till February 2006. Since February 1 to February 28 of 2006 total debt decreased by KZT18.3 bn. (-3.06), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 75.4 m. (-1.66%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in January 2006 were plus KZT2.9 bn. (plus 0.49%) or plus $76.1 m. (plus 1.71%). Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 06 Jan 31, 06 period --------------- ----------------- ---------- --------------- Issuer issue servicing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 132.234 22.8 146.255 -14,020.3 -9.6 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 441.872 76.1 446.061 -4,189.2 -0.9 incl. face value 356.201 61.3 361.406 -5,204.5 -1.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 310.596 53.5 315.146 -4,550.0 -1.4 also, euronotes USD USD 45.605 7.9 46.260 -654.5 -1.4 incl. servicing 85.670 14.8 84.655 +1,015.3 +1.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 78.060 13.4 76.935 +1,124.5 +1.5 also, euronotes USD USD 7.610 1.3 7.720 -109.2 -1.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 6.546 1.1 6.640 -93.9 -1.4 incl. face value USD KZT 5.644 1.0 5.725 -81.0 -1.4 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.902 0.2 0.915 -12.9 -1.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.172 0.4 2.203 -31.2 -1.4 also, face value USD KZT 1.957 0.3 1.985 -28.1 -1.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.215 0.04 0.218 -3.1 -1.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. akimat USD KZT 4.374 0.8 4.437 -62.8 -1.4 also, face value USD KZT 3.687 0.6 3.740 -52.9 -1.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.687 0.1 0.697 -9.9 -1.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 580.652 100.0 598.955 -18,303.4 -3.06 incl. face value 494.080 85.1 513.385 -19,305.8 -3.8 incl. servicing 86.572 14.9 85.570 +1,002.3 +1.2 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 527.436 90.8 544.976 -17,539.7 -3.2 also, face value KZT KZT 448.475 77.2 467.126 -18,651.3 -4.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 78.962 13.6 77.850 +1,111.6 +1.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 53.215 9.2 53.979 -763.7 -1.4 also, face value USD USD 45.605 7.9 46.260 -654.5 -1.4 also, servicing USD USD 7.610 1.3 7.720 -109.2 -1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of Feb 28, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.30 per dollar, as of Jan 31, 06 - at KZT132.17. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 06 Jan 31, 06 period ------------- ----------------- ---------- --------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 1,014.8 22.8 1,106.6 -91,719.0 -8.3 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,391.2 76.1 3,374.9 +16,284.3 +0.5 incl. face value 2,733.7 61.3 2,734.4 -699.7 -0.03 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,383.7 53.5 2,384.4 -699.7 -0.03 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 7.9 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 657.5 14.8 640.5 +16,984.0 +2.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 599.1 13.4 582.1 +16,984.0 +2.9 also, euronotes USD USD 58.4 1.3 58.4 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 50.2 1.1 50.2 0 0 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 1.0 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 6.9 0.2 6.9 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 16.7 0.4 16.7 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.3 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.65 0.04 1.65 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. akimat USD KZT 33.6 0.8 33.6 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 5.3 0.1 5.3 0 0 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 4,456.3 100.0 4,531.7 -75,434.7 -1.66 incl. face value 3,791.9 85.1 3,884.3 -92,418.7 -2.4 incl. servicing 664.4 14.9 647.4 +16,984.0 +2.6 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4,047.9 90.8 4,123.3 -75,434.7 -1.8 also, face value KZT KZT 3,441.9 77.2 3,534.3 -92,418.7 -2.6 also, servicing KZT KZT 606.0 13.6 589.0 +16,984.0 +2.9 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 408.4 9.2 408.4 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 7.9 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 58.4 1.3 58.4 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in February by amounts of floatation was KZT132,000.0 m. (in January- KZT146,000.2 m.). At that the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT146,254.7 m. (KZT161,275.5 m.). February's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT14,254.7 m. Corresponding index of January - negative KZT15,275.3 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In February the Ministry of finance could not float its bonds on the reason of unsatisfied price conditions, formed in specialized trades on sale of MEUJKAM-120 of the second issue (in January volume of floatation of the Ministry of finance was KZT17,000.0 m.). The issuer paid nominal value in redemption of its securities, and also coupon payments for the amount KZT7,418.1 m. (486.1 m.). February's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS in negative KZT7,418.1 m. (in January - positive KZT16,513.9 m.). In February total balance of net-borrowings of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS in negative KZT21,672.8 m. Corresponding index of January - positive KZT1,238.6 m. The above data certifies that Kazakhstan GS market was not considered in analyzed month by the National Bank as space, where we may sterilize excess tenge liquidity. On the contrary, owing to redemption of earlier issued bonds this segment of the country's financial market added free tenge to the market. IRBIS specialists do not exclude, that this contributed definite mite in very high inflation level, fixed in the republic by the results of February. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-01-09]