ANALYSIS: Dynamics of conventional pension unit of Kazakhstan APF from the beginning of their activities till January 1, 2006

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 20, 06/ - Following table comprises values of conventional pension unit (CPU) of Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds (APF) as of January 1, 2006, presented to IRBIS agency for spreading by Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for regulation and supervision of financial market and financial organizations, and also dynamics of this indicator for different periods of funds' activity (calculated by IRBIS). Funds have been sorted in the order, which corresponds to the start of their activity on the market. Trends are given: for CPU value - in percents relative to corresponding data as of December 1, 2005, for CPU changing - in percentage points (i.e. value of previous period is deducted from the current yield in percents APR) relative to the same date. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPU change in % APR Value -------------------------------------------------------- Activity CPU on since the beginning of: for last: start of ------------------------------- ------------------------ Fund date Jan 1, 06 activity 2003 2004 2005 6 mon. 3 mon. 1 mon. ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- SAPF Jan15.98 302.1024 25.64 4.56 2.37 3.01 2.79 0.50 1.16 (+0.06) (-0.25) (-0.11) (-0.07) (-0.22) (-0.39) (-0.78) (-4.49) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- HBK Feb24.98 349.8977 32.15 6.47 5.41 8.22 7.96 6.95 8.02 (+0.88) (+0.05) (+0.18) (+0.28) (+0.31) (+1.16) (-0.13) (+2.75) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- VTF Mar20.98 335.2292 30.52 6.60 6.09 8.13 7.87 5.66 8.38 (+0.77) (+0.00) (+0.13) (+0.19) (+0.18) (+0.03) (-2.36) (+5.13) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- NPF Mar22.98 374.0412 35.58 8.48 8.31 9.58 8.32 6.96 9.25 (+0.54) (-0.12) (-0.01) (-0.04) (-0.25) (-0.59) (-3.13) (+1.57) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Ku- Mar24.98 309.9318 27.28 6.43 7.13 9.11 8.08 8.43 9.25 naev (+0.93) (+0.08) (+0.20) (+0.25) (+0.30) (-0.11) (-0.07) (+2.75) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Kaz- Apr19.98 361.4520 34.29 6.48 6.83 9.08 8.48 7.58 10.40 mys (+0.76) (-0.01) (+0.13) (+0.16) (+0.08) (-0.04) (-3.13) (+4.48) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- UlUm Apr20.98 350.6527 32.89 5.82 6.17 7.70 6.69 5.73 5.95 (+0.52) (-0.12) (+0.05) (+0.04) (-0.09) (+0.98) (-0.04) (-1.00) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Kaz-n Apr28.98 345.4038 32.29 7.50 8.12 8.37 9.81 5.63 11.39 (+0.82) (+0.02) (+0.13) (+0.15) (+0.23) (+0.11) (-6.11) (+14.86) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- NGD Jun07.98 342.3623 32.36 6.42 6.46 7.68 5.99 5.40 5.48 (+0.34) (-0.20) (-0.04) (-0.08) (-0.32) (+0.69) (-0.50) (-2.21) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- AAKMG Mar03.99 241.0904 20.89 6.11 5.23 5.78 5.48 5.46 5.37 (+0.44) (-0.10) (+0.00) (+0.03) (-0.02) (+0.86) (+0.10) (-0.04) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- SENIM Jul20.99 193.2653 14.64 7.03 7.09 11.35 8.53 7.29 7.82 (+0.78) (+0.05) (+0.13) (+0.16) (-0.09) (-0.33) (+0.08) (+6.44) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Kor- Dec01.99 169.8165 11.63 5.55 5.15 7.85 6.28 6.89 5.78 gau (+0.64) (+0.02) (+0.10) (+0.15) (+0.04) (-1.42) (+1.78) (-6.16) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Otan Nov26.01 133.8244 8.42 7.18 7.16 6.71 6.52 6.99 6.65 (+1.02) (+0.17) (+0.22) (+0.30) (+0.62) (+1.02) (+2.26) (+1.84) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Kapi- Mar06.02 125.1497 6.72 6.48 5.96 6.62 5.84 4.96 5.24 tal (+0.32) (-0.04) (-0.06) (-0.08) (-0.25) (-0.31) (-0.71) (-0.85) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's recommended to make conclusions about effectiveness of assets management based not on absolute value of CPU but its speed of change since the absolute value of the unit depends on operating term of the fund. On this reason IRBIS agency operates in table with the speed of CPU changing in different periods, expressed as percents per annum. This indicator for each period is determined as a difference between the last and first values of CPU divided by first value, expressed in percents, then divided by number of days in the period and multiplied by 365. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, derived parameter can be considered as a nominal (without taking into account inflation) yield of fund assets during period for the depositor. The table below lets observe dynamics of the described above indicator of CPU changing (% APR) in monthly terms for the last 12 months. In the table funds are sorted by alphabet. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2005 Ave- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Fund Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec rage ------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- AAKMG +12,8 +1,6 +9,0 +5,5 +0,3 +7,3 +3,9 +5,0 +5,6 +5,4 +5,3 +11,1 +6,1 VTF +9,2 +8,5 +10,6 +2,5 +9,1 +8,8 +4,5 +16,2 +4,4 +3,3 +9,3 +10,4 +8,1 SAPF +6,5 +1,8 +4,1 +0,3 +3,1 +6,6 +5,4 +3,1 -5,1 +5,6 +0,8 +6,2 +3,2 Kaz-n Х +9,7 +7,1 +5,4 +9,4 +8,9 +4,0 +27,9 +10,6 -3,5 +10,0 +17,5 +8,9 Kaz-mys +23,5 -2,4 +8,4 +6,3 +9,4 +8,1 +0,9 +18,3 +7,5 +5,9 +9,2 +8,0 +8,6 Kapital +12,1 +2,9 +9,7 +5,4 +5,7 +9,3 +4,6 +6,0 +4,9 +6,1 +3,8 +12,7 +6,9 Korgau +6,1 +15,1 +12,5 -2,8 +15,9 +7,5 +6,7 +2,5 +0,7 +11,9 +7,7 +8,0 +7,7 Kunaev +6,2 +8,7 +17,4 +4,6 +11,8 +9,1 +2,1 +11,4 +7,4 +6,5 +11,3 +6,2 +8,6 HBK +14,0 +4,6 +9,6 +8,0 +3,9 +10,8 +4,6 +11,0 +4,8 +5,3 +10,7 +16,4 +8,6 NGD +18,8 +7,8 +10,6 +9,0 +0,2 +7,0 +6,8 +5,6 +4,2 +7,7 +4,1 +6,6 +7,4 NPF +27,5 -2,3 +9,2 +6,9 +10,0 +7,4 +5,1 +15,7 +6,5 +7,7 +6,5 +11,4 +9,3 Otan +6,8 +2,4 +10,2 +7,2 +6,2 +7,2 +5,0 +5,5 +3,8 +4,8 +12,4 +17,3 +7,4 SENIM +31,0 +5,1 +10,7 +10,3 +11,4 +12,7 +6,7 +9,2 +11,1 +1,4 +9,5 +10,4 +10,8 UlUm +28,1 -0,5 +9,5 +3,9 +0,8 +10,2 +5,9 +6,5 +3,8 +6,9 +6,4 +17,0 +8,2 ------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Average +14,5 +4,5 +9,9 +5,2 +6,9 +8,6 +4,7 +10,3 +5,0 +5,4 +7,7 +11,4 +7,8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: VTF - PAP Valut-Tranzit-Fund JSC; Kunaev - PAPF of open type named after Kunaev JSC; NPF - APF Atameken JSC; Kaz-n - till Janaury 31, 05 - PAPF Kazakhstan JSC, afterwards - APF BTA Kurmet-Kazakhstan JSC; HBK - APF of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC; Kazmys - APF Kazakhmys JSC; UlUm - till Oct 1,01 OAPF Ular CJSC, afterwards - APF UlarUmit CJSC; NGD - APF NefteGas-Dem CJSC; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet JSC; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO - KaspiyMunayGas JSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM JSC; Korgau - APF Korgau JSC; PMK - KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan JSC; Otan - OAPF OTAN JSC; SAPF - State accumulative pension fund SAPF JSC; Kapital - APF KAPITAL JSC; "-" - data is absent because of inactivity or liquidation of the fund; "X" - data on CPU of reformed APF BTA Kurmet- Kazakhstan JSC is absent as of February 1, 2005. [2006-01-20]