ANALYSIS: As of December 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT599.7 bn. or $4,743.5 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 5, 05/ - As of December 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT599.7 bn., or $4,473.5 m. at the rate of KZT134.07 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from September till November 2005, on MEUJKAM - from December 2004 till November 2005. Since November 1 to November 30 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT24.1 bn. (-3.87%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 182.5 m. (-3.92%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in October 2005 were -KZT9.6 bn. (-1.5%) or -$75.8 m. (- 1.60%). Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Nov30, 05 as of period --------------- ----------------- Oct 31, 05 --------------- Issuer issue serviсing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 181.307 30.2 196.651 -15,344.4 -7.8 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 411.603 68.6 420.281 -8,678.7 -2.1 incl. face value 329.931 55.0 333.489 -3,558.2 -1.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 283.006 47.2 286.589 -3,582.7 -1.3 also, euronotes USD USD 46.925 7.8 46.900 +24.5 +0.1 incl. servicing 81.672 13.6 86.792 -5,120.5 -5.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 73.841 12.3 76.357 -2,515.8 -3.3 also, euronotes USD USD 7.831 1.3 10.435 -2,604.7 -25.0 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 6.785 1.1 6.908 -123.7 -1.8 incl. face value USD KZT 5.807 1.0 5.804 +3.0 +0.1 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.978 0.2 1.104 -126.8 -11.5 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.284 0.4 2.283 +1.2 +0.1 also, face value USD KZT 2.013 0.3 2.012 +1.1 +0.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.271 0.1 0.271 +0.1 +0.1 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. akimat USD KZT 4.501 0.8 4.626 -124.9 -2.7 also, face value USD KZT 3.794 0.6 3.792 +2.0 +0.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.707 0.1 0.834 -126.9 -15.2 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 599.694 100.0 623.841 -24,146.8 -3.9 incl. face value 517.045 86.2 535.944 -18,899.5 -3.5 incl. servicing 82.649 13.8 87.897 -5,247.3 -6.0 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 544.939 90.9 566.506 -21,566.6 -3.8 also, face value KZT KZT 470.120 78.4 489.044 -18,924.0 -3.9 also, servicing KZT KZT 74.819 12.5 77.461 -2,642.6 -3.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 54.755 9.1 57.335 -2,580.2 -4.5 also, face value USD USD 46.925 7.8 46.900 +24.5 +0.1 also, servicing USD USD 7.831 1.3 10.435 -2,604.7 -25.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of November 30, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT134.07 per dollar, as of October 31, 05 - at KZT134.00. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Nov 30, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Oct 31, 05 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 1,352.3 30.2 1,467.5 -115,216.8 -7.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,070.1 68.6 3,136.4 -66,370.1 -2.1 incl. face value 2,460.9 55.0 2,488.7 -27,839.1 -1.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,110.9 47.2 2,138.7 -27,839.1 -1.3 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 7.8 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 609.2 13.6 647.7 -38,530.9 -5.9 also, domestic GS KZT, -3.3 USD KZT 550.8 12.3 569.8 -19,062.2 also, euronotes USD USD 58.4 1.3 77.9 -19,468.8 -25.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 50.61 1.1 51.56 -949.9 -1.84 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 1.0 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 7.3 0.2 8.2 -949.9 -11.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 17.0 0.4 17.0 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.3 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 2.0 0.1 2.0 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 33.6 0.8 34.5 -949.9 -2.8 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 5.3 0.1 6.2 -949.9 -15.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 4,473.0 100.0 4,655.5 -182,536.7 -3.9 incl. face value 3,856.5 86.2 3,999.6 -143,055.9 -3.6 incl. servicing 616.5 13.8 655.9 -39,480.8 -6.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4,064.6 90.9 4,227.7 -163,067.9 -3.9 also, face value KZT KZT 3,506.5 78.4 3,649.6 -143,055.9 -3.9 also, servicing KZT KZT 558.1 12.5 578.1 -20,012.0 -3.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 408.4 9.1 427.9 -19,468.7 -4.6 also, face value USD USD 350.0 7.8 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 58.4 1.3 77.9 -19,468.8 -25.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in November by amounts of floatation was KZT181,000.1 m. (in October - KZT196,330.8 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT196,651.3 m. (KZT195,311.3 m.). November's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT15,651.2 m. Corresponding index of October - positive KZT1,019.6 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In November the Ministry of finance did not float bonds. The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT7,349.2 m. (in October - 9,081.6 m.). November's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT7,349.2 m. (in October - negative KZT9,081.6 m.). Total November's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT23,128.0 m. Corresponding indicator of October - negative KZT9,568.7 m. The shown data evidences that in analyzed month the National bank more actively sterilized the market from "excess" money, using flotation of notes. However principal changes in this plan are not happening. The country' head bank prefers mainly to interact on monetary aggregates through rates of its deposits. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2005-12-05]