ANALYSIS: As of November 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT623.8 bn. or $4,655.5 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 7, 05/ - As of November 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT623.8 bn., or $4,655.5 m. at the rate of KZT134.00 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from August till October of 2005, on MEUJKAM - from November of 2004 till October of 2005. Within October 1 - 31 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT9.6 m. (-1.50%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 75.8 m. (-1.60%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in September of 2005 were -KZT34.1 bn. (-5.10%) or -$202.0 m. (-4.09%). Following table contains detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 31, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Sep 30, 05 -------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 196.651 31.5 195.311 +1,340.0 +0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- Ministry of Finance 420.281 67.4 429.749 -9,467.8 -2.2 incl. face value 333.489 53.5 340.473 -6,983.7 -2.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 286.589 45.9 293.611 -7,022.2 -2.4 also, euronotes USD USD 46.900 7.5 46.862 +38.5 +0.1 incl. servicing 86.792 13.9 89.276 -2,484.1 -2.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 76.357 12.2 78.850 -2,492.7 -3.2 also, euronotes USD USD 10.435 1.7 10.427 +8.6 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 6.908 1.1 8.413 -1,504.2 -17.9 incl. face value USD KZT 5.804 0.9 7.214 -1,410.4 -19.5 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.104 0.2 1.198 -93.8 -7.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.283 0.4 3.791 -1,508.0 -39.8 also, face value USD KZT 2.012 0.3 3.426 -1,413.5 -41.3 also, servicing USD KZT 0.271 0.04 0.365 -94.5 -25.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.626 0.7 4.622 +3.8 +0.1 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.792 0.6 3.789 +3.1 +0.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.834 0.1 0.833 +0.7 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- TOTAL 623.841 100.0 633.473 -9,632.0 -1.5 incl. face value 535.944 85.9 542.998 -7,054.1 -1.3 incl. servicing 87.897 14.1 90.475 -2,577.9 -2.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 566.506 90.8 576.185 -9,679.0 -1.7 also, face value KZT KZT 489.044 78.4 496.137 -7,092.6 -1.4 also, servicing KZT KZT 77.461 12.4 80.048 -2,586.5 -3.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- -------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 57.335 9.2 57.288 +47.1 +0.1 also, face value USD USD 46.900 7.5 46.862 +38.5 +0.1 also, servicing USD USD 10.435 1.7 10.427 +8.6 +0.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of October 31, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT134.00 per dollar, as of September 30, 05 - at KZT133.89. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 31, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Sep 30, 05 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 1,467.5 31.5 1,458.7 +8,802.8 +0.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Ministry of Finance 3,136.4 67.4 3,209.7 -73,290.3 -2.3 incl. face value 2,488.7 53.5 2,542.9 -54,204.6 -2.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,138.7 45.9 2,192.9 -54,204.6 -2.5 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 7.5 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 647.7 13.9 666.8 -19,085.7 -2.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 569.8 12.2 588.9 -19,085.7 -3.2 also, euronotes USD USD 77.9 1.7 77.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 51.56 1.1 62.83 -11,276.7 -17.95 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 0.9 53.9 -10,569.6 -19.6 incl. servicing USD KZT 8.2 0.2 8.9 -707.1 -7.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Astana USD KZT 17.0 0.4 28.3 -11,276.7 -39.8 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.3 25.6 -10,569.6 -41.3 also, servicing USD KZT 2.021 0.04 2.728 -707.1 -25.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Atyrau USD KZT 34.5 0.7 34.5 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 6.2 0.1 6.2 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ TOTAL 4,655.5 100.0 4,731.3 -75,764.2 -1.60 incl. face value 3,999.6 85.9 4,055.6 -55,971.5 -1.4 incl. servicing 655.9 14.1 675.7 -19,792.8 -2.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4,227.7 90.8 4,303.4 -75,764.2 -1.8 also, face value KZT KZT 3,649.6 78.4 3,705.6 -55,971.5 -1.5 also, servicing KZT KZT 578.1 12.4 597.9 -19,792.8 -3.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 427.9 9.2 427.9 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 7.5 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 77.9 1.7 77.9 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in October by amounts of floatation was KZT196,330.8 m. (in September - KZT238,537.6 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT195,311.3 m. (KZT269,727.2 m.). October's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was positive KZT1,019.6 m. Corresponding index of September - negative KZT31,189.6 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In October the Ministry of finance did not float bonds. The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT9,081.6 m. (in September - 2,546.9 m.). October's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT9,081.6 m. (in September - negative KZT2,546.5 m.). Total October's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT9,568.7 m. Corresponding indicator of September - negative KZT33,770.2 m. The shown data evidences that the analyzed month on primary GS market was a bit different that previous one. The major difference is that, in all probability, the National Bank again tries to use its notes to sterilize money supply. Such the mood is observed since the middle of October, when the issuer started raising yield of his bonds. However, excluding rare exclusions, the National Bank keeps from satisfying the whole demand stated at auctions, but makes borrowings exactly in planned volume. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2005-11-07]