Next falling of USD offer volume on KASE does not let the market go out of horizontal correcting consolidation channel

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 3, 05/ - Today the next morning trades in U.S. dollar were held on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) on TOD payment terms. Below are main parameters of the trade and comparison with corresponding indicators of previous morning session. Table of trade results (tenge per dollar, th. dollars) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Value Trend ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Rate of the first deal 133.60 +0.10 Maximum rate 134.10 +0.20 Volume at maximum price 5 0 Minimum rate 133.60 +0.10 Volume at minimum price 5 0 Rate of the last deal 133.92 +0.13 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Weighted average rate 133.92 +0.15 Volume of the session 10,395 -4,585 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Number of deals 79 +8 Number of participants 16 0 Volume of unsatisfied offer* 5,365 +525 Volume of unsatisfied demand* 5,345 -1,500 Best demand on KASE at closing 133.89 +0.11 Best offer on KASE at closing 133.92 +0.13 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Best demand at 11:00 out of stock exchange (REUTERS) 133.82 +0.08 Best offer at 11:00 out of stock exchange (REUTERS) 133.92 +0.13 -------------------------------------------------------------------- *volume of corresponding active bids of STB in the trade system at closing of the trade Table of trade price levels --------------------------------------- Time (ALT) Price Volume, Number ------------ level th. USD of deals from to ------ ------- -------- ----- ----- 134.10 5 1 10:15 10:15 134.00 220 6 10:15 10:29 133.99 100 1 10:25 10:25 133.98 100 1 10:25 10:25 133.97 710 6 10:25 10:31 133.96 365 4 10:21 10:31 133.95 2750 17 10:19 10:31 133.94 340 3 10:21 10:31 133.93 550 4 10:19 10:35 133.92 300 2 10:35 10:59 133.91 1500 10 10:35 10:59 133.90 1600 8 10:37 10:57 133.89 150 2 10:37 10:52 133.88 100 1 10:41 10:41 133.87 750 5 10:38 10:41 133.86 850 7 10:41 10:44 133.60 5 1 10:15 10:15 ------ ------- -------- ----- ----- TOTAL 10395 79 10:15 10:59 --------------------------------------- Incompliance of dollar sellers and their willingness to raise the rate today did not let develop successes of tenge, which were fixed on KASE during two previous days. The market is still in the horizontal price channel of consolidation, formed in the middle of September. Taking into account the autumn consolidation of dollar, market's moving in this channel can be considered as a correction. Today traders were incompliant. The attempt to open the market highly and keep it above 133.90 was mainly successful, and this caused growth of weighted average rate. According to estimates of IRBIS dollar still has some potential for strengthening. But it's small and can be realized only due to speculative demand. This is proved by banks' disposition on KASE (all actual market- makers are among USD net-sellers for the second day already), failed attempt of sellers to raise dollar rate at the morning trade, and also by the results of technical analysis. One hour after closing of the morning session out of stock exchange dollar was quoted at KZT133.81/91, one hour and a half later - 133.79/89. At the day trades of KASE at 12:39 p.m. dollar was quoted at 133.85/87, the last deal was made at 133.85. [2005-11-03]