ANALYSIS: Dynamics of conventional pension unit of Kazakhstan APF from the beginning of their activities till September 1, 2005

/IRBIS, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 21, 05/ - Following table comprises values of conventional pension unit (CPU) of Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds (APF) as of September 1, 2005, presented to IRBIS agency for spreading by Kazakhstan agency for financial market and financial organizations regulation and supervision, and also dynamics of this indicator for different periods of funds' activity (calculated by IRBIS). Funds have been sorted in the order, which corresponds to the start of their activity on the market. Trends are given: for CPU value - in percents relative to corresponding data as of August 1, 2005, for CPU changing - in percentage points (i.e. value of previous period is deducted from the current yield in percents APR) relative to the same date. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPU change in % APR ------------------------------------------------------- Value since the beginning of: for last: Activity of ------------------------------- ----------------------- start CPU on acti- Fund date Sep 1, 05 vity 2002 2003 2004 6 mon. 3 mon. 1 mon. ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- SAPF Jan15.98 301.7295 26.43 8.12 4.94 2.65 3.81 5.06 3.09 (+0.26) (-0.19) (-0.10) (-0.05) (+0.03) (+0.19) ( 0) (-2.35) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- HBK Feb24.98 343.9363 32.42 8.56 6.31 5.09 8.09 8.81 10.97 (+0.93) (+0.06) (+0.14) (+0.21) (+0.36) (+1.06) (+2.40) (+6.41) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- VTF Mar20.98 330.5685 30.92 8.66 6.60 6.07 8.81 9.93 16.15 (+1.37) (+0.25) (+0.29) (+0.40) (+0.62) (+1.34) (+2.40) (+11.6) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- NPF Mar22.98 367.6638 35.92 10.23 8.48 8.37 9.24 9.50 15.71 (+1.33) (+0.24) (+0.26) (+0.35) (+0.50) (+3.00) (+1.96) (+10.6) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Ku- Mar24.98 303.5512 27.33 8.14 6.11 6.80 9.63 7.58 11.43 naev (+0.97) (+0.08) (+0.16) (+0.23) (+0.31) (+0.48) (-0.14) (+9.31) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Kaz- Apr19.98 354.7493 34.54 8.77 6.26 6.60 8.75 9.20 18.34 mys (+1.56) (+0.34) (+0.36) (+0.49) (+0.72) (+3.47) (+3.03) (+17.4) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- UlUm Apr20.98 345.7098 33.33 8.68 5.75 6.15 6.18 7.53 6.47 (+0.55) (-0.13) ( 0) (+0.05) (+0.05) (+1.11) (+1.95) (+0.56) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Kaz-n Apr28.98 340.6224 32.73 9.72 7.57 8.37 10.69 13.75 27.89 (+2.37) (+0.70) (+0.65) (+0.83) (+1.22) (+3.20) (+6.31) (+23.9) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- NGD Jun07.98 337.8137 32.84 8.31 6.43 6.53 6.60 6.49 5.64 (+0.48) (-0.16) (-0.02) (+0.00) (-0.02) (-0.35) (+1.85) (-1.12) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- AAKMG Mar03.99 237.8552 21.20 8.39 6.09 5.12 5.22 5.43 5.03 (+0.43) (-0.12) (-0.04) (-0.01) (+0.02) (+0.53) (+1.60) (+1.10) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- SENIM Jul20.99 189.8168 14.67 9.30 6.88 6.94 10.37 9.58 9.20 (+0.78) (+0.04) (+0.07) (+0.13) (+0.17) (+0.65) (-0.75) (+2.48) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Kor- Dec01.99 166.9487 11.63 7.33 5.34 4.80 7.20 5.59 2.50 gau (+0.21) (-0.11) (-0.10) (-0.08) (-0.11) (-2.10) (-4.58) (-4.23) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Otan Nov26.01 131.5314 8.37 8.38 7.07 7.06 7.01 5.95 5.54 (+0.47) (-0.03) (-0.03) (-0.02) (-0.05) (+0.48) (-0.24) (+0.51) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Kapi- Mar06.02 123.6207 6.76 - 6.54 6.03 6.87 6.62 5.97 tal (+0.51) (+0.01) - (+0.01) (+0.03) (+0.48) (+0.08) (+1.40) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's recommended to make conclusions about effectiveness of assets management based not on absolute value of CPU but its speed of change since the absolute value of the unit depends on operating term of the fund. On this reason IRBIS agency operates in table with the speed of CPU changing in different periods, expressed as percents per annum. The indicator for each period is determined as a difference between the last and first values of CPU divided by first value, expressed in percents, then divided by number of days in the period and multiplied by 365. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, derived parameter can be considered as a nominal (without taking into account inflation) yield of fund assets during period for the depositor. The table below lets observe dynamics of the described above indicator of CPU changing (% APR) in monthly terms for the last 12 months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2004 2005 -------------------- ---------------------------------------------- Ave- Fund Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug rage ------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- AAKMG +5.8 +5.4 +5.7 +13.9 +12.8 +1.6 +9.0 +5.5 +0.3 +7.3 +3.9 +5.0 +6.4 VTF +4.7 +1.6 +1.8 +4.7 +9.2 +8.5 +10.6 +2.5 +9.1 +8.8 +4.5 +16.2 +6.9 SAPF +0.1 +1.7 +9.5 +10.8 +6.5 +1.8 +4.1 +0.3 +3.1 +6.6 +5.4 +3.1 +4.4 Kaz-n +6.9 +7.5 +8.6 +22.5 Х +9.7 +7.1 +5.4 +9.4 +8.9 +4.0 +27.9 +9.8 Kaz-mys +7.5 +3.6 +4.9 +16.6 +23.5 -2.4 +8.4 +6.3 +9.4 +8.1 +0.9 +18.3 +8.8 Kapital +7.4 +4.6 +5.4 +12.1 +12.1 +2.9 +9.7 +5.4 +5.7 +9.3 +4.6 +6.0 +7.1 Korgau +2.8 -2.1 +2.9 +10.1 +6.1 +15.1 +12.5 -2.8 +15.9 +7.5 +6.7 +2.5 +6.4 Kunaev +9.3 -6.6 +3.6 +12.1 +6.2 +8.7 +17.4 +4.6 +11.8 +9.1 +2.1 +11.4 +7.5 Kurmet +5.7 +2.2 +6.0 +23.2 - - - - - - - - +9.3 HBK +3.6 +1.9 +0.3 +14.8 +14.0 +4.6 +9.6 +8.0 +3.9 +10.8 +4.6 +11.0 +7.2 NGD +3.9 +3.4 +5.7 +19.7 +18.8 +7.8 +10.6 +9.0 +0.2 +7.0 +6.8 +5.6 +8.2 NPF +5.3 +6.8 +9.0 +16.0 +27.5 -2.3 +9.2 +6.9 +10.0 +7.4 +5.1 +15.7 +9.7 Otan +5.2 +3.8 +8.9 +27.0 +6.8 +2.4 +10.2 +7.2 +6.2 +7.2 +5.0 +5.5 +8.0 SENIM +3.1 +0.6 -4.0 +0.3 +31.0 +5.1 +10.7 +10.3 +11.4 +12.7 +6.7 +9.2 +8.1 UlUm +4.8 +2.9 +5.1 +13.5 +28.1 -0.5 +9.5 +3.9 +0.8 +10.2 +5.9 +6.5 +7.6 PMK +5.5 +3.6 +4.2 - - - - - - - - - +4.4 ------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- Average +5.1 +2.6 +4.8 +14.5 +14.5 +4.5 +9.9 +5.2 +6.9 +8.6 +4.7 +10.3 +7.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: VTF - PAP Valut-Tranzit-Fund JSC; Kunaev - PAPF of open type named after Kunaev JSC; NPF - APF Atameken JSC; Kaz-n - till Janaury 31, 05 - PAPF Kazakhstan JSC, afterwards APF BTA Kurmet-Kazakhstan JSC; HBK - APF of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC; Kazmys - APF Kazakhmys JSC; UlUm - till Oct 1,01 OAPF Ular CJSC, afterwards - APF UlarUmit CJSC; NGD - APF NefteGas-Dem CJSC; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet JSC; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO - KaspiyMunayGas JSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM JSC; Korgau - APF Korgau JSC; PMK - KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan JSC; Otan - OAPF OTAN JSC; SAPF - State accumulative pension fund SAPF JSC; Kapital - APF KAPITAL JSC; "-" - data is absent because of inactivity or liquidation of the fund; "X" - data on CPU of reformed APF BTA Kurmet-Kazakhstan JSC is absent as of February 1 of 2005. [2005-09-21]