ANALYSIS: Dynamics of conventional pension unit of Kazakhstan APF from the beginning of their activities till August 1, 2005

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, August 17, 05/ - Following table comprises values of conventional pension unit (CPU) of Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds (APF) as on August 1, 2005, presented to IRBIS agency to spread by Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for financial market and financial organizations regulation and supervision, and also dynamics of this indicator for different periods of funds' activity (calculated by IRBIS). Funds have been sorted in the order, which corresponds to the start of their activity on the market. Trends are given: for CPU value - in percents relative to corresponding data as on July 1, 2005, for CPU changing - in percentage points (i.e. value of previous period is deducted from the current yield in percents APR) relative to the same date. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPU change in % APR Value ------------------------------------------------------ since the beginning of: for last: Data of of ------------------------------- ---------------------- activi- CPU on acti- Fund ty start Aug 1,05 vity 2002 2003 2004 6 mon. 3 mon. 1 mon. ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SAPF Jan.15, 98 300.9401 26.62 8.22 4.98 2.62 3.62 5.06 5.44 (+1.01) (-0.20) (-0.02) (+0.12) (+0.43) (-0.91) (+2.52) (+2.3) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ HBK Feb24, 98 340.7619 32.37 8.42 6.10 4.73 7.02 6.41 4.55 (+1.28) (-0.15) (+0.07) (+0.18) (+0.40) (-2.38) (-0.80) (+0.6) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ VTF Mar20, 98 326.0954 30.67 8.37 6.20 5.46 7.47 7.53 4.55 (+1.12) (-0.21) (+0.01) (+0.10) (+0.20) (-0.09) (+0.03) (-4.6) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NPF Mar22, 98 362.8218 35.67 9.96 8.13 7.87 6.25 7.54 5.10 (+1.05) (-0.31) (-0.08) (-0.04) (-0.11) (-5.44) (-1.23) (-4.9) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Ku- Mar24, 98 300.6328 27.25 7.98 5.88 6.49 9.15 7.72 2.12 naev (+0.93) (-0.25) (-0.04) (+0.03) (-0.05) (-1.26) (-3.74) (-9.7) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz- Apr19, 98 349.3085 34.20 8.41 5.77 5.88 5.28 6.16 0.93 mys (+0.75) (-0.44) (-0.13) (-0.05) (-0.12) (-5.47) (-1.94) (-8.5) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ UlUm Apr20, 98 343.8205 33.46 8.68 5.69 6.10 5.07 5.58 5.91 (+1.34) (-0.15) (+0.08) (+0.23) (+0.31) (-4.47) (+0.85) (+5.2) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz-n Apr28, 98 332.7392 32.03 9.08 6.74 7.16 7.49 7.44 4.00 (+1.07) (-0.26) (-0.03) (+0.05) (-0.01) (-1.68) (+0.08) (-5.4) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NGD Jun 7, 98 336.2026 33.01 8.33 6.42 6.55 6.96 4.64 6.76 (+1.15) (-0.24) (+0.03) (+0.11) (+0.11) (-4.36) (-1.96) (+6.5) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ AAEMG Mar 3, 99 236.8429 21.32 8.44 6.10 5.11 4.69 3.84 3.93 (+0.94) (-0.22) (-0.06) (+0.02) (+0.11) (-2.71) (-1.10) (+3.6) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SENIM Jul 20, 99 188.3453 14.63 9.23 6.75 6.76 9.71 10.33 6.72 (+1.62) (+0.10) (+0.17) (+0.31) (+0.45) (-2.10) (-0.56) (-4.7) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kor- Dec 1, 99 166.5957 11.74 7.43 5.42 4.92 9.29 10.17 6.72 gau (+1.19) (+0.00) (+0.07) (+0.18) (+0.32) (-0.33) (+1.49) (-9.2) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Otan Nov26, 01 130.9156 8.40 8.41 7.09 7.11 6.53 6.19 5.03 (+1.02) (-0.02) (-0.03) (+0.01) (-0.04) (-3.78) (-1.75) (-1.2) ----- ---------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kapi- Mar 6, 02 122.9966 6.75 - 6.52 6.00 6.40 6.54 4.58 tal (+1.16) (+0.09) - (+0.10) (+0.17) (-1.83) (-0.47) (-1.1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is recommended to make conclusions about effectiveness of assets management based not on absolute value of CPU but its speed of change since the absolute value of the unit depends on operating term of the fund. On this reason IRBIS agency operates in the table with the speed of CPU changing in different periods, expressed as percents per annum. The indicator for each period is determined as a difference between the last and initial values of CPU divided by initial value, expressed in percents, then divided by number of days in the period and multiplied by 365. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, derived parameter can be considered as a nominal (without taking into account inflation) yield of fund assets during period for the depositor. The table below lets observe dynamics of the described above indicator of CPU changing (% APR) in monthly terms for the last 12 months. In this table funds have been sorted in alphabetic order -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2004 2005 -------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Ave- Fund Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul rage ------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- AAKMG +7.5 +5.8 +5.4 +5.7 +13.9 +12.8 +1.6 +9.0 +5.5 +0.3 +7.3 +3.9 +6.6 VTF +13.1 +4.7 +1.6 +1.8 +4.7 +9.2 +8.5 +10.6 +2.5 +9.1 +8.8 +4.5 +6.6 SAPF +9.3 +0.1 +1.7 +9.5 +10.8 +6.5 +1.8 +4.1 +0.3 +3.1 +6.6 +5.4 +4.9 Kaz-n +11.0 +6.9 +7.5 +8.6 +22.5 Х +9.7 +7.1 +5.4 +9.4 +8.9 +4.0 +9.2 Kaz-mys +14.8 +7.5 +3.6 +4.9 +16.6 +23.5 -2.4 +8.4 +6.3 +9.4 +8.1 +0.9 +8.5 Kapital +7.2 +7.4 +4.6 +5.4 +12.1 +12.1 +2.9 +9.7 +5.4 +5.7 +9.3 +4.6 +7.2 Korgau +8.9 +2.8 -2.1 +2.9 +10.1 +6.1 +15.1 +12.5 -2.8 +15.9 +7.5 +6.7 +7.0 Kunaev +6.3 +9.3 -6.6 +3.6 +12.1 +6.2 +8.7 +17.4 +4.6 +11.8 +9.1 +2.1 +7.1 Kurmet +12.4 +5.7 +2.2 +6.0 +23.2 - - - - - - - +9.9 HBK +5.7 +3.6 +1.9 +0.3 +14.8 +14.0 +4.6 +9.6 +8.0 +3.9 +10.8 +4.6 +6.8 NGD +7.7 +3.9 +3.4 +5.7 +19.7 +18.8 +7.8 +10.6 +9.0 +0.2 +7.0 +6.8 +8.4 NPF +10.0 +5.3 +6.8 +9.0 +16.0 +27.5 -2.3 +9.2 +6.9 +10.0 +7.4 +5.1 +9.2 Otan +6.3 +5.2 +3.8 +8.9 +27.0 +6.8 +2.4 +10.2 +7.2 +6.2 +7.2 +5.0 +8.0 SENIM +8.8 +3.1 +0.6 -4.0 +0.3 +31.0 +5.1 +10.7 +10.3 +11.4 +12.7 +6.7 +8.1 UlUm +4.4 +4.8 +2.9 +5.1 +13.5 +28.1 -0.5 +9.5 +3.9 +0.8 +10.2 +5.9 +7.4 PMK +6.9 +5.5 +3.6 +4.2 - - - - - - - - +5.0 ------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Average +8.8 +5.1 +2.6 +4.8 +14.5 +15.6 +4.5 +9.9 +5.2 +6.9 +8.6 +4.7 +7.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: VTF - PAP Valut-Tranzit-Fund JSC; Kunaev - PAPF of open type named after Kunaev JSC; NPF - OAPF Narodniy pensionniy fond JSC; Kaz-n - till January 31, 05 - PAPF Kazakhstan JSC, afterwards - APF BTA Kurmet- Kazakhstan JSC; HBK - APF Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC; Kazmys - APF Kazakhmys JSC; UlUm - till October 10, 01 OAPF Ular CJSC, afterwards - APF UlarUmit CJSC; NGD - APF NefteGas-Dem CJSC; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet JSC; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO - KaspiyMunaiGas JSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM JSC; Korgau - APF Korgau JSC; PMK - KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan JSC; Otan - OAPF OTAN JSC; SAPF - State accumulative pension fund JSC; Kapital - APF Kapital JSC; "-" - data is absent because of inactivity or liquidation of the fund; "X" - data on CPU of reformed APF BTA Kurmet-Kazakhstan JSC is absent as on February 1, 2005. [2005-08-17]