ANALYSIS: As of June 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT798.5 bn. or $6,027.0 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 8, 05/ - As of June 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT798.5 bn., or $6,027.0 m. at the rate of KZT132.49 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from March till June of 2005, on MEUJKAM - from June of 2004 till May of 2005. Within May 1 - 31 of 2005 total debt increased by KZT15.9 bn. (+2.00%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 80.9 m. (+1.36%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in April of 2005 were -KZT32.3 bn. (-4.00%) or -$199.3 m. (-3.24%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of May 31, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Apr 30, 05 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 344.153 43.1 339.196 +4,957.2 +1.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Ministry of Finance 445.327 55.8 434.274 +11,053.5 +2.5 incl. face value 353.171 44.2 343.784 +9,386.6 +2.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 306.799 38.4 297.721 +9,078.6 +3.0 also, euronotes USD USD 46.372 5.8 46.064 +308.0 +0.7 incl. servicing 92.156 11.5 90.489 +1,666.9 +1.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 81.839 10.2 77.678 +4,160.6 +5.4 also, euronotes USD USD 10.318 1.3 12.811 -2,493.8 -19.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 9.031 1.1 9.097 -65.7 -0.7 incl. face value USD KZT 7.737 1.0 7.685 +51.4 +0.7 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.294 0.2 1.411 -117.1 -8.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.801 0.5 3.775 +25.2 +0.7 also, face value USD KZT 3.390 0.4 3.367 +22.5 +0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.411 0.1 0.408 +2.7 +0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.607 0.6 4.702 -95.1 -2.0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.749 0.5 3.724 +24.9 +0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.858 0.1 0.978 -120.0 -12.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.623 0.1 0.619 +4.1 +0.7 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.598 0.1 0.594 +4.0 +0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.0255 0.003 0.0253 +0.2 +0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ TOTAL 798.511 100.0 782.566 +15,945.0 +2.0 incl. face value 705.061 88.3 690.665 +14,395.2 +2.1 incl. Servicing 93.451 11.7 91.901 +1,549.8 +1.69 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 741.822 92.9 723.691 +18,130.8 +2.5 also, face value KZT KZT 658.689 82.5 644.602 +14,087.2 +2.2 also, servicing KZT KZT 83.133 10.4 79.089 +4,043.5 +5.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 56.689 7.1 58.875 -2,185.8 -3.71 also, face value USD USD 46.372 5.8 46.064 +308.0 +0.67 also, servicing USD USD 10.318 1.3 12.811 -2,493.8 -19.47 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of May 31, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT132.49 per dollar, as of April 30, 05 - at KZT131.61. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of May 31, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Apr 30, 05 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,597.6 43.1 2,577.3 +20,297.6 +0.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,361.2 55.8 3,299.7 +61,512.2 +1.9 incl. face value 2,665.6 44.2 2,612.1 +53,497.8 +2.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,315.6 38.4 2,262.1 +53,497.8 +2.4 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.8 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 695.6 11.5 687.6 +8,014.5 +1.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 617.7 10.2 590.2 +27,483.2 +4.7 also, euronotes USD USD 77.9 1.3 97.3 -19,468.8 -20.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 68.16 1.1 69.1 -955.07 -1.4 incl. face value USD KZT 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 9.7682 0.2 10.7 -955.07 -8.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 28.7 0.5 28.7 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.4 25.6 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 3.1 0.1 3.1 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 34.8 0.6 35.7 -955.1 -2.7 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 6.5 0.1 7.4 -955.1 -12.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.7 0.1 4.7 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.2 0.003 0.2 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 6,027.0 100.0 5,946.1 +80,854.8 +1.36 incl. face value 5,321.6 88.3 5,247.8 +73,795.4 +1.4 incl. Servicing 705.3 11.7 698.3 +7,059.4 +1.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,599.1 92.9 5,498.8 +100,323.6 +1.8 also, face value KZT KZT 4,971.6 82.5 4,897.8 +73,795.4 +1.5 also, servicing KZT KZT 627.5 10.4 600.9 +26,528.1 +4.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 427.9 7.1 447.3 -19,468.8 -4.4 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.8 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 77.9 1.3 97.3 -19,468.8 -20.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in May by amounts of floatation was KZT195,228.2 m. (in April - KZT176,626.9 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT190,623.0 m. (KZT229,117.5 m.). May's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was positive KZT4,605.2 m. Corresponding index of April - negative KZT52,490.6 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In May the Ministry of finance borrowed KZT16,000.0 m. due to MEOKAM offering (in April - KZT14,000.0 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT10,418.5 m. (in April 10,129.5 m.). May's net- borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT5,581.5 m. (in April - positive KZT3,870.5 m.). Total May's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT10,060.7 m. Corresponding indicator of April - negative KZT48,712.3 m. The shown data lets specialists of IRBIS assume that in the analyzed period the National Bank again started sterilizing the market - mainly through refinancing of its bond debt by issuing new notes. In all probability, The considerable increase of its stake on KASE's repo market in April and falling of issuing activity on the GS market did not give the expected result. Although, the National Bank's actions may be explained in another way. The Ministry of finance this year works flatly on the GS market increasing its debt by small portions in order to provide institutional investors with necessary instruments. Nonetheless, judging on the balance, the Ministry of finance significantly helps to the National Bank to control inflation. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2005-06-08]