ANALYSIS: As of May 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT782.6 bn. or $5,946.1 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, May 10, 05/ - As of May 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT782.6 bn., or $5,946.1 m. at the rate of KZT131.61 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from February till May of 2005, on MEUJKAM - from May of 2004 till April of 2005. Within April 1 - 30 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT32.3 bn. (-4.00%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 199.3 m. (-3.24%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in March of 2005 were +KZT16.6 bn. (+2.07%) or +$12.1 m. (+0.20%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt --------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Apr 30, 05 Mar 31, 05 period ------------- ---------------- ---------- ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 339.196 43.3 391.368 -52,172.1 -13.33 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Ministry of Finance 434.274 55.5 414.194 +20,079.9 +4.8 incl. face value 343.784 43.9 337.839 +5,944.9 +1.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 297.721 38.0 291.433 +6,287.9 +2.2 incl., euronotes USD USD 46.064 5.9 46.407 -343.0 -0.7 also servicing 90.489 11.6 76.355 +14,134.9 +18.5 incl., domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 77.678 9.9 63.448 +14,230.3 +22.4 incl., euronotes USD USD 12.811 1.6 12.907 -95.4 -0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 9.097 1.2 9.258 -161.0 -1.7 incl. face value USD KZT 7.685 1.0 7.743 -57.2 -0.7 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.411 0.2 1.515 -103.8 -6.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.775 0.5 3.897 -121.4 -3.1 also, face value USD KZT 3.367 0.4 3.392 -25.1 -0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.408 0.1 0.504 -96.3 -19.1 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Atyrau region akimat USD KZT 4.702 0.6 4.737 -35.0 -0.7 also, face value USD KZT 3.724 0.5 3.752 -27.7 -0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.978 0.1 0.985 -7.3 -0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.619 0.1 0.624 -4.6 -0.7 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.594 0.1 0.598 -4.4 -0.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.025 0.003 0.025 -0.2 -0.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ TOTAL 782.566 100.0 814.819 -32,253.2 -4.0 incl. face value 690.665 88.3 736.950 -46,284.4 -6.3 incl. Servicing 91.901 11.7 77.870 +14,031.2 +18.02 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 723.691 92.5 755.506 -31,814.8 -4.2 also, face value KZT KZT 644.602 82.4 690.543 -45,941.4 -6.7 also, servicing KZT KZT 79.089 10.1 64.963 +14,126.6 +21.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 58.875 7.5 59.313 -438.4 -0.74 also, face value USD USD 46.064 5.9 46.407 -343.0 -0.74 also, servicing USD USD 12.811 1.6 12.907 -95.4 -0.74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of April 30, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT131.61 per dollar, as of March 31, 05 - at KZT132.59. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt --------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Apr 30, 05 Mar 31, 05 period ------------- ---------------- ---------- ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,577.3 43.3 2,951.7 -374,435.0 -12.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,299.7 55.5 3,123.9 +175,832.0 +5.6 incl. face value 2,612.1 43.9 2,548.0 +64,143.9 +2.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,262.1 38.0 2,198.0 +64,143.9 +2.9 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.9 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 687.6 11.6 575.9 +111,688.1 +19.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 590.2 9.9 478.5 +111,688.1 +23.3 also, euronotes USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 69.1 1.2 69.82 -703.2 -1.0 incl. face value USD KZT 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 -0.0 incl. servicing USD KZT 10.7 0.2 11.4 -703.2 -6.2 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 28.7 0.5 29.4 -703.2 -2.4 also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.4 25.6 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 3.1 0.1 3.8 -703.2 -18.5 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau region akimat USD KZT 35.7 0.6 35.7 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 7.4 0.1 7.4 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.70 0.1 4.70 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.50 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.2 0.003 0.2 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 5,946.1 100.0 6,145.4 -199,306.2 -3.2 incl. face value 5,247.8 88.3 5,558.1 -310,291.1 -5.6 incl. Servicing 698.3 11.7 587.3 +110,984.8 +18.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,498.8 92.5 5,698.1 -199,306.2 -3.5 also, face value KZT KZT 4,897.8 82.4 5,208.1 -310,291.1 -6.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 600.9 10.1 490.0 +110,984.8 +22.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 447.3 7.5 447.3 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.9 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in April by amounts of floatation was KZT176,626.9 m. (in March - KZT103,244.9 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT229,117.5 m. (KZT103,655.3 m.). April's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT52,490.6 m. Corresponding index of March - negative KZT410.4 m. ("minus" in the balance means the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than he paid off). In April the Ministry of finance borrowed KZT14,000.0 m. due to first issue MEUJKAM-180 offering (in March - KZT15,999.4 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT10,129.5 m. (in March 1,577.5 m.). April's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT3,870.5 m. (in March - positive KZT14,421.9 m.). Total April's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT48,712.3 m. Corresponding indicator of March - positive KZT13,978.5 m. The shown data say the analyzed month on primary GS market fundamentally differed from previous ones. The difference is that National Bank in April had distinctly negative net-borrowing balance having almost refused active sterilization of the market through issuing its notes. Specialists of IRBIS explain it by an unordinary high volume of repayment of issued before "long" bonds of the National Bank in the analyzed month. National Bank did not want to service this debt by offering new notes with about 1- year duration because lately only short securities are sold at its auctions. Despite the huge demand for these instruments, it was probably impossible to satisfy National Bank's need in borrowed funds by issuing them. This made the head bank activate on exchange's repo market having increased its gross-position in this type of transactions by 20.1% in comparison with March. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2005-05-10]