Absence of exporters' USD offer and banks' speculative demand resulted in abrupt growth of dollar rate at KASE

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 28, 05/ - Today the next morning trades in U.S. dollar were held at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) on TOD payment terms. Below are main parameters of the trade and comparison with corresponding indicators of previous morning session. Table of trade results (tenge per dollar, th. dollars) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Value Trend ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Rate of the first deal 130.50 +0.10 Maximum rate 131.90 +0.85 Volume at maximum price 10 +5 Minimum rate 130.50 +0.10 Volume at minimum price 5 0 Rate of the last deal 131.80 +0.95 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Weighted average rate 131.69 +0.92 Volume of the session 22,365 +3,905 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Number of deals 112 +12 Number of participants 18 0 Volume of unsatisfied offer* 1,815 -9,990 Volume of unsatisfied demand* 5,025 +480 Best demand at KASE at closing 131.75 +0.90 Best offer at KASE at closing 131.80 +0.90 ---------------------------------------------------- ------ ------ Best demand at 11:00 out of stock exchange (REUTERS) 130.38 -0.43 Best offer at 11:00 at stock exchange (REUTERS) 130.43 -0.46 -------------------------------------------------------------------- *volume of corresponding active bids of STB in the trade system at closing of the trade Table of trade price levels --------------------------------------- Time (ALT) Price Volume, Number ------------ level th. USD of deals from to ------ ------- -------- ----- ----- 131.90 10 2 10:55 10:56 131.83 10 1 10:59 10:59 131.82 525 3 10:59 10:59 131.81 200 2 10:59 10:59 131.80 13855 30 10:55 10:59 131.75 500 2 10:55 10:55 131.70 420 8 10:48 10:54 131.65 215 3 10:54 10:54 131.63 100 3 10:54 10:54 131.62 105 4 10:54 10:54 131.61 5 1 10:51 10:51 131.60 500 8 10:48 10:50 131.57 300 4 10:47 10:48 131.55 650 7 10:46 10:47 131.52 300 2 10:40 10:46 131.50 430 8 10:26 10:41 131.49 300 3 10:37 10:37 131.47 300 2 10:37 10:37 131.45 400 4 10:35 10:37 131.42 1000 2 10:29 10:35 131.38 1000 1 10:28 10:28 131.30 85 4 10:15 10:26 131.28 100 1 10:26 10:26 131.20 1000 5 10:20 10:22 131.15 50 1 10:19 10:19 130.50 5 1 10:15 10:15 ------ ------- -------- ----- ----- TOTAL 22365 112 10:15 10:59 --------------------------------------- The session opened highly. In all probability, this was promoted by the morning events on over-the-counter market. During the trades STB's demand was prevailing over dollar offer. It occurred because one of banks, which was serving exporters and which was the main supplier of the currency at KASE during the previous week, today was among USD net-buyers. As the result there appeared a "vacuum" of offer on exchange's floor that resulted in a quick growth of dollar rate. The head bank, which today was smoothing rate fluctuations, had to fill the vacuum. That's why degree of offer monopolization considerably exceeded similar indicator on demand. The latter thing was controlled by four banks at a time. Despite the considerable growth of dollar rate and possibility of further dollar strengthening till the end of the day, analysts of IRBIS still do not over- estimate USD's potential. Thigs occurring on the market are the result of a deep over-sale of dollar and traders' speculations, which have no reasons. However growth of dollar rate is at present profitable for Kazakhstan economics, that's what analysts of IRBIS explain National Bank's soft position with. One hour after closing of the morning session out of stock exchange dollar was quoted at KZT131.98/132.10, two hours later - 132.30/42. At the day trades of KASE at 1:00 p.m. dollar was quoted at 132.32/40, the last deal was made at 132.45. [2005-03-28]