ANALYSIS: As of March 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS reached KZT798.3 bn. or $6,133.4 m. along with servicing

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 11, 05/ - As of March 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT798.3 bn., or $6,133.4 m. at the rate of KZT130.15 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from December 2004 till February of 2005, on MEUZhKAM - from March 2004 to February 2005. In January 1 -31 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT2.0 bn. (-0.26%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 5.4 m. (-0.09%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in January of 2005 were +KZT41.6 bn. (+5.48%) or +$302.4 m. (+5.18%). Following table contains detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change --------------------------- as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 05 as of period ------------- ---------------- Jan 31, 05 --------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 391.523 49.0 412.543 -21,020.2 -5.1 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 397.613 49.8 378.601 +19,012.0 +5.0 incl. face value 320.775 40.2 303.084 +17,690.7 +5.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 275.222 34.5 257.455 +17,767.7 +6.9 also, euronotes USD USD 45.553 5.7 45.630 -77.0 -0.2 incl. servicing 76.838 9.6 75.516 +1,321.2 +1.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 64.168 8.0 62.826 +1,342.7 +2.1 also, euronotes USD USD 12.669 1.6 12.691 -21.4 -0.2 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 9.120 1.1 9.160 -40.3 -0.4 incl. face value USD KZT 7.600 1.0 7.613 -12.8 -0.2 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.520 0.2 1.547 -27.5 -1.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.825 0.5 3.832 -6.5 -0.2 also, face value USD KZT 3.330 0.4 3.336 -5.6 -0.2 also, servicing USD KZT 0.495 0.1 0.496 -0.8 -0.2 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.683 0.6 4.691 -7.9 -0.2 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.683 0.5 3.689 -6.2 -0.2 also, servicing USD KZT 1.000 0.1 1.002 -1.7 -0.2 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.612 0.1 0.638 -26.0 -4.1 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.587 0.1 0.588 -1.0 -0.2 also, servicing USD KZT 0.025 0.003 0.050 -25.0 -49.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 798.256 100.0 800.305 -2,048.6 -0.26 incl. face value 719.898 90.2 723.241 -3,342.3 -0.5 incl. Servicing 78.358 9.8 77.064 +1,293.7 +1.68 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 740.034 92.7 741.984 -1,950.1 -0.3 also, face value KZT KZT 674.346 84.5 677.611 -3,265.3 -0.5 also, servicing KZT KZT 65.688 8.2 64.373 +1,315.2 +2.0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 58.222 7.3 58.320 -98.4 -0.17 also, face value USD USD 45.553 5.7 45.630 -77.0 -0.17 also, servicing USD USD 12.669 1.6 12.691 -21.4 -0.17 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of February 28, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.15 per dollar, as of January 15, 05 - at KZT130.37. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 05 as of period ------------- ------------------ Jan 1, 05 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 3,008.2 49.0 3,164.4 -156,158.2 -4.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,055.0 49.8 2,904.0 +150,986.1 +5.2 incl. face value 2,464.7 40.2 2,324.8 +139,855.3 +6.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,114.7 34.5 1,974.8 +139,855.3 +7.1 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.7 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 590.4 9.6 579.2 +11,130.8 +1.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 493.0 8.0 481.9 +11,130.8 +2.3 also, euronotes USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 70.07 1.1 70.3 -191.22 -0.3 incl. face value USD KZT 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 11.6789 0.2 11.9 -191.22 -1.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 29.4 0.5 29.4 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.4 25.6 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 3.8 0.1 3.8 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 36.0 0.6 36.0 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 7.7 0.1 7.7 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.70 0.1 4.9 -191.22 -3.9 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.1923 0.003 0.4 -191.2 -49.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 6,133.4 100.0 6,138.7 -5,363.3 -0.1 incl. face value 5,531.3 90.2 5,547.6 -16,302.9 -0.3 incl. Servicing 602.1 9.8 591.1 +10,939.6 +1.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,686.0 92.7 5,691.4 -5,363.3 -0.1 also, face value KZT KZT 5,181.3 84.5 5,197.6 -16,302.9 -0.3 also, servicing KZT KZT 504.7 8.2 493.8 +10,939.6 +2.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 447.3 7.3 447.3 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.7 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in February by amounts of floatation was KZT74,256.1 m. (in January - KZT30,157.9 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities, including advance repayment, for a total of KZT83,059.7 m. (KZT37,901.3 m.). February's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market totaled minus KZT8,803.7 m. Corresponding index of December - negative KZT49,256.7 m. In February the Ministry of finance attracted KZT18,777.1 m via offering MEUZhKAM -120 (in January - KZT22,190.2) and made a payment on face value of bonds for a total amount KZT1,966.9 m (in January 1,496.2 m). February's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT16,810.2 m. (in December - plus KZT20,693.8 m.). Total January's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT7,981.7 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in January - positive KZT12,950.3 m. Therefore, thanks to floatation of MEOKAM-36, the National Bank an opportunity to decrease the volume of sterilization of idle funds with its notes. Total amount of debt remained almost unchanged, while inflation rate fall allowed to end up the period with smaller balance of net borrowing as opposed to January. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2005-03-11]