ANALYSIS: In JAnuary of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 0.02% to $179.2 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 14, 05/ - In January of 2005 at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 325 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT23,318.4 m. or $179.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 2.9% of monthly exchange turnover (in December - 2.3%). In comparison with December of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by $42.2 m. (KZT9.6 bn.) or by 0.02% (by 0.04% in terms of tenge). Relative to January of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $51.0 m. (KZT5,295.2 m.) or by 39.8% (by 29.4% in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover at KASE in January is presented in the following way: 10.4% ($18,554.4 th.) of all conducted deals fell to the stake of primary offerings; stake of purchase and sale sector was 89.6% ($160,653.0 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in December of 2004 was as follows: the stake of primary offerings was 19.4% of transactions volume ($34,750.9 th.), purchase and sale sector - 80.1% ($143,543.0 th.), at SBS sector - 0.5% ($956.5 th.). SHARE MARKET Volume of deals volume in this segment fell in January 3.5 times or by $52.0 m to the equivalent of $20.4 m. Number of shares involved into deals in January fell from 36 to 25, and number of deals grew from 301 to 162. Average volume of on transaction grew up to KZT139.9 m. ($1,075.7 th.) in January 2005 from KZT31.3 m. ($240.8 th.) in December 2004. Abovementioned data points at significant decrease of share market activity in the beginning if the year, which is typical for Kazakhs market. It is due to closing transactions that brokers engage in during December, while in January those deals are absent. It is known fact that traders in our market often use equities as are collateral or a debt instrument. These instruments were best to use in various schemes aimed at correction of year-end figures. In analyzed period 51.9% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 83.3% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of December - 72.5% and 73%. Statistical characteristics of share market can be also described by parameters of market's concentration. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of January 2005 (i.e. 4 shares - CCBN, VTBN, ROSA, HRLT), formed 73.7% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of December- 61.4%. Among favorites there were common shares of Bank CenterCredit JSC (CCBN, 27.9% of share turnover, 22 deals). The "top-5" in December also comprised VTBN (21.8%), ALKS (16.8%), HRLT (7.2%) and KKGBp (5.4%). To remind, in December 5 positions of the rating belonged to CCBN (36.8%), VTBN (12.6%), ROSA(6.2%), KZMS (5.8%) and TEBN (5.7% of the whole share market). On the number of executed deals, the indicator that adequately reflects security's liquidity, in January KKGBp (45 deals) was the leader. It followed by VTBN (27), CCBN (22), ALKS (11) and HRLT (10). In December first five positions of the rating comprised CCBN (49), KKGBp (39), NFBN (36), VTZL (29) and ALKS (15). In IRBIS analysts opinion, the data points at insignificant changes in preferences of brokers, as well as the fact that January's market was similar to that of December. Within the month weighted average daily prices of 14 shares out of 25 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 6 fell, prices of 5 shares remained on the same level. CHFM showed the largest growth rate, the most rapid fall was that of CSBNp. KASE_Shares index grew within the month by 2.1% due to positive change of demand prices of ASFI, KZTK, NRBNp6, ROSA, TEBN, TEBNp, VTBNp and UTMKp. CORPORATE BOND MARKET This segment was considerably changed in comparison with December. Volume of deals has grown 1.5 times (by $52,950.9 th.) to $158.8 m. Range of securities involved into deals has not changed in number (46 - in December), number of deals has fallen from 193 to 163. Average volume of deal has grown from KZT71.3 m. ($548.3 th.) to KZT960.2 bn. ($7,380.1 th.). The stake of direct deals was 13.9% of transactions in quantitative expression and 13.9% in volumetric. In December - 26.4% and 14.0%. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of January (4 securities - BTASb4, HSBKb7, ASBNb3, ATFBb4), formed 51.8% of the exchange's turnover including primary offerings. Similar indicator of market's concentration in December was 47.0%, in November- 38.4%. In January 25 instruments had higher than USD1 m. turnover (in December - 20). BTASb4 were leading by the number of made deals (16 deals) followed by VTZLb1 (11 deals) and KZIKb4 (9). In January weighted average daily prices of 35 securities out of 48 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 9 - fell. There was nothing to compare prices of 4 new bonds with. HSBKb2 grew most of all (by 13.0%), ALKSb2 fell most of all (by 25.2%). Weighted average daily dirty prices of 5 bonds grew by 5% and more, and prices of 3 securities fell so considerably. Yields of 19 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in January, yields of 25 - fell. Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in January of 2005. Change of KASE's securities lists in January of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 44 0 90 +2 49 0 B 34 0 8 0 32 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 78 0 98 +2 79 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 2 0 0 0 2 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 80 0 98 +2 80 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable CS at KASE in January of 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 46,873.5 6,097.3 16 29.2 -0.03 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 9,330.8 1,215.7 6 5.8 -7.26 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 8,958.6 1,165.4 5 5.6 - CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 7,440.7 967.3 5 4.6 -0.04 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 7,200.8 936.1 9 4.5 +5.96 CSBNb5 BANK CASPIAN JSC 6,528.5 849.6 1 4.1 - CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 5,701.8 741.4 22 3.5 +0.04 VTBNb2 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 4,648.3 606.9 3 2.9 -1.18 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 4,452.3 579.0 27 2.8 -9.15 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 3,857.7 501.7 2 2.4 -0.01 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 3,700.2 482.4 1 2.3 -20.20 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,693.7 480.2 5 2.3 +0.72 VTZLb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 3,439.2 448.1 11 2.1 0 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 3,436.6 447.7 11 2.1 +7.84 HSBKb4 Corporation Kazakhmys JSC 3,392.5 441.7 3 2.1 +4.88 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 3,129.8 407.1 2 1.9 +1.03 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2,908.3 378.5 5 1.8 +4.16 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,857.8 371.6 3 1.8 +3.33 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2,843.8 369.8 1 1.8 +11.99 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 2,715.4 353.0 5 1.7 +4.30 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,139.5 278.2 1 1.3 +3.70 ALKSb2 Alliance Bank JSC 2,090.0 271.9 8 1.3 -25.36 CSBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 2,010.2 261.8 6 1.3 +5.25 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 1,471.3 191.6 10 0.9 -4.24 ASFIb2 Astana-Finance JSC 1,428.9 185.8 4 0.9 -0.17 CHFMb1 Chimfarm JSC 1,305.2 169.7 1 0.8 -0.01 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 1,106.3 143.9 45 0.7 +9.28 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,004.0 130.6 5 0.6 +3.91 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM OJSC 910.7 118.4 5 0.6 +0.99 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 870.2 113.2 1 0.5 +0.02 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 824.3 107.2 1 0.5 -97.65 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 772.3 100.4 3 0.5 -0.04 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 634.1 82.5 2 0.4 -34.46 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 633.0 82.4 8 0.4 +0.40 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 632.0 82.2 2 0.4 +1.96 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 610.7 79.4 2 0.4 +15.50 NFBN Neftebank OJSC 561.1 73.0 3 0.3 +13.21 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 497.5 64.7 2 0.3 -0.30 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 384.6 50.0 1 0.2 -0.74 BRKZb1 Development Bank 340.0 44.2 1 0.2 -0.02 of Kazakhstan JSC ORDBb1 Corporation Ordabasy JSC 333.5 43.4 1 0.2 -0.17 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 324.7 42.3 5 0.2 +3.54 UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-magnesium 318.1 41.4 2 0.2 -1.40 plant JSC RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 312.9 40.7 3 0.2 -0.55 TEBN Temirbank JSC 233.0 30.3 3 0.1 +9.60 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 214.6 27.9 3 0.1 +0.53 KZALb1 Mining-smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 213.2 27.7 4 0.1 -0.76 CSBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 201.4 26.2 3 0.1 -0.15 CSBNb2 Bank CenterCredit JSC 148.8 19.3 2 0.1 +4.56 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 140.4 18.3 2 0.1 +0.17 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 131.8 17.1 1 0.1 0 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 123.0 16.0 1 0.1 -0.04 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 107.7 14.0 1 0.1 0 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 76.9 10.0 1 0.05 +0.01 MREKb1 Mangistau distributing electricity network 0.05 company OJSC 76.1 9.9 1 -0.14 MMGZp Mangistaumunaygas OJSC 63.9 8.3 2 0.04 +0.82 VTZLp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 63.7 8.3 1 0.04 +27.50 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 61.1 7.9 1 0.04 -1.21 UKTCb1 AES Ust Kamenogorsk EPP OJSC 44.2 5.7 3 0.03 +1.64 UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-magnesium 28.4 3.7 3 0.02 +0.82 plant JSC VTBNb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 23.1 3.0 1 0.01 +1.35 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 22.6 2.9 3 0.01 +25.22 AMGZp CNPC - 21.7 2.8 1 0.01 0 Aktobemunaygas OJSC CCBNb5 Bank CenterCredit JSC 15.2 2.0 1 0.01 -0.33 CHFM Chimfarm JSC 14.3 1.9 6 0.01 +67.55 KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 1.6 0.2 2 0.001 +45.31 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunai JSC 0.9 0.1 1 0.001 +5.36 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 0.3 0.04 2 <0.001 +0.01 KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 0.3 0.04 1 <0.001 0 CSBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 0.2 0.03 2 <0.001 -99.22 ALKZp Aluminium of Kazakstan JSC 0.1 0.01 1 <0.001 0 -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 71 160,653.8 20,902.6 318 100.0 - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in January of 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 31.12.04 3,940.7 213.37 5,275.8 7.70 167.63 8,458.8 05.01.05 3,943.1 216.34 5,275.8 7.39 169.62 2,110.1 06.01.05 3,952.1 216.89 5,273.3 7.41 169.77 5,628.4 07.01.05 3,938.7 215.63 5,277.1 7.44 169.41 8,061.1 10.01.05 3,875.5 218.72 5,281.2 7.56 168.85 25,766.9 11.01.05 3,879.3 219.11 5,267.3 7.57 168.67 30,859.1 12.01.05 3,869.5 217.20 5,267.8 7.48 169.20 5,536.0 13.01.05 3,868.7 217.19 5,274.3 7.39 169.76 5,953.4 14.01.05 3,852.6 215.79 5,273.5 7.48 169.34 5,513.0 17.01.05 3,852.6 217.01 5,272.5 7.41 169.90 4,380.8 18.01.05 3,873.6 216.80 5,272.2 7.41 169.91 1,265.4 19.01.05 3,877.5 215.76 5,297.4 7.61 168.77 5,424.8 20.01.05 3,878.1 216.76 5,296.6 7.50 169.51 8,928.3 21.01.05 4,069.6 211.76 5,334.4 7.45 169.81 13,825.3 24.01.05 4,069.5 217.91 5,337.9 7.41 170.18 8,500.4 25.01.05 4,065.8 218.43 5,336.4 7.43 170.06 11,931.6 26.01.05 4,072.7 217.24 5,332.8 7.46 169.98 4,072.2 27.01.05 4,082.2 218.22 5,331.8 7.53 169.56 8,844.5 28.01.05 3,987.5 217.58 5,330.6 7.58 169.35 15,960.5 31.01.05 3,990.4 217.83 5,336.8 7.58 169.46 6,646.4 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend -14.1 +5.90 +493.0 +0.16 +0.87 -0.4% +2.8% +10.3% +2.1% +0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-02-14]