ANALYSIS: As of February 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS reached KZT800.3 bn. or $6,138.7 m. along with servicing

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 9, 05/ - As of February 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT800.3 bn., or $6,138.7 m. at the rate of KZT130.37 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from November 2004 till January of 2005. In January 1 -31 of 2005 total debt increased by KZT41.6 bn. (+5.48%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 302.4 m. (+5.18%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in December of 2004 were +KZT18.2 bn. (+2.46%) or +$140.8 m. (+2.47%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Dec 31, 04 as of period ------------- ----------------- Nov 30, 04 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 412.543 51.5 407.667 +4,876.0 +1.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Ministry of Finance 378.601 47.3 341.919 +36,681.8 +10.7 incl. face value 303.084 37.9 281.600 +21,484.3 +7.6 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 257.455 32.2 236.100 +21,354.8 +9.0 also, euronotes USD USD 45.630 5.7 45.500 +129.5 +0.28 incl. servicing 75.516 9.4 60.319 +15,197.5 +25.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 62.826 7.9 47.664 +15,161.5 +31.8 also, euronotes USD USD 12.691 1.6 12.655 +36.0 +0.28 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 9.160 1.1 9.134 +25.9 +0.3 incl. face value USD KZT 7.613 1.0 7.591 +21.6 +0.3 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.547 0.2 1.543 +4.3 +0.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.832 0.5 3.821 +10.9 +0.3 also, face value USD KZT 3.336 0.4 3.326 +9.5 +0.3 also, servicing USD KZT 0.496 0.1 0.495 +1.4 +0.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.691 0.6 4.677 +13.3 +0.28 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.689 0.5 3.679 +10.5 +0.3 also, servicing USD KZT 1.002 0.1 0.999 +2.8 +0.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.638 0.1 0.636 +1.7 +0.3 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.588 0.1 0.587 +1.7 +0.3 also, servicing USD KZT 0.050 0.01 0.050 +0.1 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ TOTAL 800.305 100.0 758.721 +41,583.7 +5.48 incl. face value 723.241 90.4 696.859 +26,381.9 +3.8 incl. Servicing 77.064 9.6 61.862 +15,201.8 +24.57 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 741.984 92.7 700.566 +41,418.2 +5.9 also, face value KZT KZT 677.611 84.7 651.359 +26,252.4 +4.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 64.373 8.0 49.207 +15,165.8 +30.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 58.320 7.3 58.155 +165.5 +0.28 also, face value USD USD 45.630 5.7 45.500 +129.5 +0.28 also, servicing USD USD 12.691 1.6 12.655 +36.0 +0.28 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of January 31, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.37 per dollar, as of December 31, 04 - at KZT130.00. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Jan 31, 05 as of period ------------- ----------------- Dec 31, 04 ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 3,164.4 51.5 3,135.9 +28,501.0 +0.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 2,904.0 47.3 2,630.1 +273,902.2 +10.4 incl. face value 2,324.8 37.9 2,166.2 +158,647.2 +7.32 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 1,974.8 32.2 1,816.2 +158,647.2 +8.7 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.7 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 579.2 9.4 464.0 +115,255.0 +24.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 481.9 7.9 366.6 +115,255.0 +31.4 also, euronotes USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 70.3 1.1 70.3 0 0 incl. face value USD KZT 58.4 1.0 58.4 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 11.9 0.2 11.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 29.4 0.5 29.4 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.4 25.6 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 3.8 0.1 3.8 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 36.0 0.6 36.0 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 7.7 0.1 7.7 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.9 0.1 4.9 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.4 0.01 0.4 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 6,138.7 100.0 5,836.3 +302,402.7 +5.18 incl. face value 5,547.6 90.4 5,360.5 +187,148.2 +3.5 incl. Servicing 591.1 9.6 475.9 +115,254.5 +24.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,691.4 92.7 5,389.0 +302,402.7 +5.6 also, face value KZT KZT 5,197.6 84.7 5,010.5 +187,148.2 +3.7 also, servicing KZT KZT 493.8 8.0 378.5 +115,254.5 +30.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 447.3 7.3 447.3 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.7 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 97.3 1.6 97.3 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in January by amounts of floatation was KZT30,157.9 m. (in December - KZT85,864.3 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities, including advance repayment, for a total of KZT37,901.3 m. (KZT36,607.5 m.). January's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market totaled minus KZT7,743.4 m. Corresponding index of December - negative KZT49,256.7 m. In January the Ministry of finance attracted KZT22,190.0 m via offering MEUZhKAM -120 and made a payment on face value of bonds for a total amount KZT1,496.2 m (in December 28,758.4 m). January's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT20,693.8 m. (in December - negative KZT28,758.4 m.). Total January's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT12,950.3 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in December 2004 - positive KZT19,542.0 m. Aforementioned data proves that increase in debt was due to Finance Ministry, which issued 10 year treasuries MEUZhKAM designated for pension funds. The floatation of the issue allowed the National bank to reduce its notes issuing activity significantly and finish January with negative balance of net borrowing without affecting inflation risks. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2005-02-09]