ANALYSIS: In 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS grew by KZT212.7 bn. or by $1,894.4 m. along with servicing

/IRBIS, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 10, 05/ - In 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, grew along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) in current prices by KZT212.7 bn., or by $1,894.4 m. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from October till December of 2004. Following table contains detailed information. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt --------------------------------- Change as of as of for the Dec 31, 04 Dec 31, 03 period ---------------- ---------------- -------------- Issuer bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT % -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ National Bank 407.667 53.7 205.681 37.7 +202.0 +98.2 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ Ministry of Finance 341.919 45.1 327.354 60.0 +14.6 +4.4 incl. face value 281.600 37.1 263.669 48.3 +17.9 +6.8 also, domestic GS 236.100 31.1 169.926 31.1 +66.2 +38.9 also, euronotes 45.500 6.0 93.743 17.2 -48.2 -51.5 incl. servicing 60.319 8.0 63.685 11.7 -3.4 -5.3 also, domestic GS 47.664 6.28 38.627 7.1 +9.0 +23.4 also, euronotes 12.655 1.67 25.058 4.6 -12.4 -49.5 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ Municipals 9.134 1.20 12.971 2.38 -3.8 -29.6 incl. face value 7.591 1.00 10.419 1.91 -2.8 -27.1 incl. servicing 1.543 0.20 2.553 0.47 -1.0 -39.5 incl. Astana akimat 3.821 0.50 5.604 1.03 -1.8 -31.8 also, face value 3.326 0.44 4.650 0.85 -1.3 -28.5 also, servicing 0.495 0.07 0.953 0.17 -0.5 -48.1 incl. Atyrau region akimat 4.677 0.62 5.537 1.01 -0.9 -15.5 also, face value 3.679 0.48 4.081 0.75 -0.4 -9.9 also, servicing 0.999 0.13 1.456 0.27 -0.5 -31.4 incl. E-Kz region akimat 0.636 0.08 1.831 0.34 -1.2 -65.2 also, face value 0.587 0.08 1.688 0.31 -1.1 -65.2 also, servicing 0.050 0.01 0.143 0.03 -0.1 -65.2 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ TOTAL 758.721 100.0 546.007 100.0 +212.7 +38.96 incl. face value 696.859 91.8 479.769 87.9 +217.1 +45.2 incl. servicing 61.862 8.2 66.238 12.1 -4.4 -6.61 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ OR 0.0 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- ------- ------ incl. internal debt 700.566 92.3 427.205 78.2 +273.4 +64.0 also, face value 651.359 85.8 386.026 70.7 +265.3 +68.7 also, servicing 49.207 6.5 41.180 7.5 +8.0 +19.5 incl. external debt 58.155 7.7 118.801 21.8 -60.6 -51.0 also, face value 45.500 6.0 93.743 17.2 -48.2 -51.5 also, servicing 12.655 1.7 25.058 4.6 -12.4 -49.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equivalents as of December 31, 04 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.00 per dollar, as of December 31, 03 - at KZT144.22. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt --------------------------------- Change as of as of for the Dec 31, 04 Dec 31, 03 period ---------------- ---------------- -------------- Issuer m. USD stake, % m. USD stake, % m. USD % -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- National Bank 3,135.9 53.7 1,582.2 37.7 +1,553.7 +98.2 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- Ministry of Finance 2,630.1 45.1 2,269.8 60.0 +360.3 +15.9 incl. face value 2,166.2 37.1 1,828.2 48.3 +337.9 +18.5 also, domestic GS 1,816.2 31.1 1,178.2 31.1 +637.9 +54.1 also, euronotes 350.0 6.0 650.0 17.2 -300.0 -46.2 incl. servicing 464.0 8.0 441.6 11.7 +22.4 +5.1 also, domestic GS 366.6 6.28 267.8 7.1 +98.8 +36.9 also, euronotes 97.3 1.67 173.8 4.6 -76.4 -44.0 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- Municipals 70.3 1.20 89.9 2.38 -19.7 -21.9 incl. face value 58.4 1.00 72.2 1.91 -13.8 -19.2 incl. servicing 11.9 0.20 17.7 0.47 -5.8 -32.9 incl. Astana akimat 29.4 0.50 38.9 1.03 -9.5 -24.4 also, face value 25.6 0.44 32.2 0.85 -6.7 -20.6 also, servicing 3.8 0.07 6.6 0.17 -2.8 -42.5 incl. Atyrau region akimat 36.0 0.62 38.4 1.01 -2.4 -6.3 also, face value 28.3 0.48 28.3 0.75 0 0 also, servicing 7.7 0.13 10.1 0.27 -2.4 -23.9 incl. E-Kz region akimat 4.9 0.08 12.7 0.34 -7.8 -61.4 also, face value 4.5 0.08 11.7 0.31 -7.2 -61.4 also, servicing 0.4 0.01 1.0 0.03 -0.6 -61.4 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- TOTAL 5,836.3 100.0 3,941.9 100.0 +1,894.4 +48.1 incl. face value 5,360.5 91.8 3,482.6 87.9 +1,877.8 +53.9 incl. servicing 475.9 8.2 459.3 12.1 +16.6 +3.6 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- OR 0.0 -------------------------- ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ----- incl. internal debt 5,389.0 92.3 3,118.2 78.2 +2,270.8 +72.8 also, face value 5,010.5 85.8 2,832.6 70.7 +2,177.8 +76.9 also, servicing 378.5 6.5 285.5 7.5 +93.0 +32.6 incl. external debt 447.3 7.7 823.8 21.8 -376.4 -45.7 also, face value 350.0 6.0 650.0 17.2 -300.0 -46.2 also, servicing 97.3 1.7 173.8 4.6 -76.4 -44.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in 2004 by amounts of floatation was KZT561,891.5 m. (in 2003 - KZT613,025.7 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities, including advance repayment, for a total of KZT374,789.8 m. (KZT485,780.3 m.). In the analyzed period net-borrowing balance of the National Bank at GS market totaled positive KZT187,101.7 m. Corresponding index of 2003 - positive KZT127,245.4 m. In 2004 the Ministry of finance issue MEKAM for total borrowing amount of KZT126,212.0 m. (in 2003 - KZT105,113.4 m.). Total payments of coupons and face value of bonds at maturity (including euronotes) amounted at current rates to KZT125,373.6 m. (79,148.1 m.). In 2004 net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT838.3 m. (in 2003 - positive KZT25,965.3 m.). In 2004 Municipal bodies did not issue bonds on GS market. In 2003 issue volume on borrowing amounts was equivalent of KZT4,693.0 m. Volume of maturity and servicing of municipal GS in the analyzed period reached KZT2,632.5 m., in 2003 - KZT2,737.5 m. Thus, net-borrowing balance of executive bodies in the year 2004 was negative KZT2,632.5 m., in 2003 - positive KZT1,955.5 m. Total net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers in the year 2004 is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT185,307.5 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuers' budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuers borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator of the year 2003 - positive KZT155,166.2 m. The shown data evidences that in the analyzed period the Ministry of finance almost did not need to borrow and worked on GS market within the frameworks of the current debt refinancing restructuring already issued debt towards its prolonging and cheapening. The considerable growth of foreign currency inflow to the domestic market in presence of the described position of the Ministry of finance made the National Bank sterilize correspondent account of the financial market's participants from "excessive" money more actively than in 2003, and support Kazakhstan stock market by issuing new bonds. This, on one hand, resulted in increase of the state debt, on another hand - changed its structure in favor of short notes of the National Bank, on another hand - made National Bank's notes, which were monetary-credit policy instrument, almost the major instrument to invest money of domestic institutional investors. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2005-01-10]