ANALYSIS: As of January 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS reached KZT758.7 bn. or $5,836.3 m. along with servicing

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 10, 05/ - As of January 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT758.7 bn., or $5,836.3 m. at the rate of KZT130.00 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis them amounts of future MEIKAM payments were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from October till December of 2004. Since December 1 till December 31 of 2004 total debt increased by KZT18.2 bn. (+2.46%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 140.8 m. (+2.47%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in November of 2004 were +KZT33.4 bn. (+4.72%) or +$338.3 m. (+6.32%). Following table contains detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change ---------------------------- for the *Currency of as of period ------------ Dec 31, 04 as of --------------- servi- ----------------- Nov 30, 04 Issuer issue cing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 407.667 53.7 357.788 +49,879.2 +13.9 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 341.919 45.1 372.647 -30,728.1 -8.2 incl. face value 281.600 37.1 310.757 -29,156.8 -9.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 236.100 31.1 265.250 -29,149.8 -11.0 also, euronotes USD USD 45.500 6.0 45.507 -7.0 -0.02 incl. servicing 60.319 8.0 61.890 -1,571.3 -2.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 47.664 6.3 49.234 -1,569.3 -3.2 also, euronotes USD USD 12.655 1.7 12.657 -1.9 -0.02 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 9.134 1.2 10.092 -957.8 -9.5 incl. face value USD KZT 7.591 1.0 8.458 -866.8 -10.2 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.543 0.2 1.634 -91.0 -5.6 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.821 0.5 4.778 -957.0 -20.0 also, face value USD KZT 3.326 0.4 4.192 -866.1 -20.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.495 0.1 0.585 -90.9 -15.5 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.677 0.6 4.678 -0.7 -0.02 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.679 0.5 3.679 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.999 0.1 0.999 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.636 0.1 0.636 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.587 0.1 0.587 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.050 0.01 0.050 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 758.721 100.0 740.528 +18,193.2 +2.5 incl. face value 696.859 91.8 677.003 +19,855.5 +2.9 incl. Servicing 61.862 8.2 63.524 -1,662.3 -2.6 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 700.566 92.3 682.364 +18,202.2 +2.7 also, face value KZT KZT 651.359 85.8 631.496 +19,862.5 +3.1 also, servicing KZT KZT 49.207 6.5 50.868 -1,660.4 -3.3 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 58.155 7.7 58.164 -8.9 -0.02 also, face value USD USD 45.500 6.0 45.507 -7.0 -0.02 also, servicing USD USD 12.655 1.7 12.657 -1.9 -0.02 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of December 31, 04 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.00 per dollar, as of November 30, 04 - at KZT130.02. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt Change ---------------------------- for the *Currency of as of period ------------ Dec 31, 04 as of ---------------- servi- ----------------- Nov 30, 04 Issuer issue cing m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 3,135.9 53.7 2,751.8 +384,109.3 +14.0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 2,630.1 45.1 2,866.1 -235,929.2 -8.2 incl. face value 2,166.2 37.1 2,390.1 -223,915.6 -9.37 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 1,816.2 31.1 2,040.1 -223,915.6 -11.0 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 6.0 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 464.0 8.0 476.0 -12,013.6 -2.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 366.6 6.3 378.7 -12,013.6 -3.2 also, euronotes USD USD 97.3 1.7 97.3 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 70.3 1.2 77.6 -7,356.0 -9.5 incl. face value USD KZT 58.4 1.0 65.1 -6,657.7 -10.2 incl. servicing USD KZT 11.9 0.2 12.6 -698.3 -5.6 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 29.4 0.5 36.7 -7,356.0 -20.0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.4 32.2 -6,657.7 -20.6 also, servicing USD KZT 3.8 0.1 4.5 -698.3 -15.5 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 36.0 0.6 36.0 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 7.7 0.1 7.7 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.9 0.1 4.9 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.4 0.01 0.4 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 5,836.3 100.0 5,695.5 +140,824.1 +2.5 incl. face value 5,360.5 91.8 5,206.9 +153,536.0 +2.9 incl. Servicing 475.9 8.2 488.6 -12,711.9 -2.6 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,389.0 92.3 5,248.1 +140,824.1 +2.7 also, face value KZT KZT 5,010.5 85.8 4,856.9 +153,536.0 +3.2 also, servicing KZT KZT 378.5 6.5 391.2 -12,711.9 -3.2 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 447.3 7.7 447.3 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 6.0 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 97.3 1.7 97.3 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in December by amounts of floatation was KZT85,864.3 m. (in November - KZT73,770.9 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off its liabilities, including advance repayment, for a total of KZT36,607.5 m (KZT33,096.4 m.). December's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank at GS market totaled positive KZT49,256.7 m. Corresponding index of November - negative KZT40,674.6 m. In December the Ministry of finance did not float its bonds. Total payments of coupons and face value of bonds at maturity amounted to KZT28,758.4 m. (7,432.2 m.). December's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT28,758.4 m. (in November - negative KZT7,432.2 m.). Total December's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT19,542.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in November of 2004 - positive KZT33,118.0 m. The shown data evidences that growth of the state debt issued as GS in the last month of 2004 was caused only by the National Bank' actions. As well as before, the head bank sterilized the market from "excessive" money by issuing its notes. But in December this sterilization was softer than in November. National Bank's position on note market was determined mainly by the events on the currency market, where USD lost its speculative attractiveness because of sterilization of the rate of tenge to dollar, and its offer volume in the country considerably decreased. This let the National Bank considerably reduce volume of dollar purchasing on domestic market that resulted in slow down of money supply expansion and decreased inflation risks. Under the appeared conditions falling of the monthly net- borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers from +KZT33.1 bn. in November to +KZ19.5 bn. in December seems to be justified. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2005-01-10]