ANALYSIS: In December of 2004 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE increased 1.9 times to KZT105.4 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 7, 05/ - In December of 2004 at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 257 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT105,412.4 m. (equivalent of $810.8 m.) or 10.6% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in November - 6.4 %). In comparison with November of 2004 the sector's turnover has increased 1.9 times in tenge and 1.91% in dollar terms. Relative to December of 2003 the turnover has risen by 45.8% in tenge and 1.6 times in dollar terms. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in December and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Days ---------------------------- Volume, m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes - 80.8% (85.1%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 0.99 1.67 0.99 1.15 (1.25) 6.2 2 8 - 14 1.15 2.00 1.50 1.56 (1.60) 4,903.7 8 15 - 28 1.00 2.51 1.52 1.45 (2.02) 5,473.4 8 29 - 36 1.75 2.25 1.75 2.11 (2.60) 264.5 3 37 - 42 2.39 2.80 2.39 2.55 (2.85) 8,932.9 9 43 - 56 2.39 3.04 2.92 2.74 (2.65) 9,175.8 21 57 - 63 2.52 3.00 3.00 2.53 (2.96) 654.8 2 64 - 91 2.49 4.00 2.79 2.80 (3.08) 14,965.5 25 92 - 181 1.80 3.53 3.00 3.22 (3.38) 26,661.0 87 182 - 364 3.10 3.81 3.62 3.38 (3.65) 14,119.6 25 -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Total 85,157.4 (47,264.0) 190 (221) -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM- 19.2% (13.8%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 4.20 5.12 5.11 4.94 (4.33) 165.3 9 1096 - 1460 4.90 4.90 4.90 4.90 ( -) 605.5 2 1461 - 1825 4.52 6.09 4.90 5.36 (5.10) 2,015.0 13 1826 - 2190 4.90 6.10 5.00 5.34 (5.29) 4,053.8 18 More than 2191 4.82 5.80 5.00 5.12 (5.43) 12,562.3 19 -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Total . . . . 20,205.3 (7,654.5) 66 (53) -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Euronotes of Kazakhstan (USD) - 1.0% (0.6%) of the market 879 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.77 (3.87) 49.7 1 -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- Total 49.7 (545.6) 1 (5) -------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- -------------------- --------- GRANDTOTAL 105,412.4 (55,554.3) 257 (280) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: for euronotes (* - fourth issue) volume of deals has been calculated at weighted average USD/KZT rate of the Exchange. In December stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made at Kazakhstan secondary GS market decreased to 96.4%. In November it was 97.6%. Analysis results show that in December exchange GS market did not bring anything new but traditional participants' activeness during the last days of the year. It would be enough to point at the volume of GS transactions executed at the exchange at 30 th and 31 th of January, which exceeded KZT62 bn., i.e. whole turnover of November volume. Mentioned amount comprised 59.6% of December volume and was primarily caused by transactions made prior to year-end. Market participants shaped their financial accounts nicely by executing so-called internal transactions and crossdeals. National Bank's becoming more active influenced notes market. Central bank finished the month with positive borrowing net balance and attracted KZT9 bn more than in November. Regardless National bank's intentions to lift the refinancing rate (which it did not do), as well as indicative December ask rates raised by the bank, yield on discount bonds in December shrunk at KASE market (see table). IRBIS analysts tend to explain this by high demand for short-term funds caused by excess tenge liquidity, which is quite normal for this period. In opposite, yield on medium-term bonds soared as Ministry of Finance announced it would issue inflation-linked longer term notes in the beginning of 2005. IRBIS analysts see certain developments at Exchange market of GS in 2005 backed by Finance Ministry's intentions to offer new fixed income securities via KASE. This would potentially lead to investors revising their investment portfolios and can affect the structure of KASE GS market. Issue volume of KZT52 bn in MEKAMs planned by Finance Ministry for the first quarter of 2005 is quite considerable and may encourage activeness. [2005-01-07]