ANALYSIS: In December 1 of 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued in GS, reached KZT740.5 bn. or $5,695.5 m. including servicing

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 7, 04/ - As of December 1, 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT740.5 bn., or $5,695.5 m. at the rate of KZT130.02 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing agency's databases. While making the analysis amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from September till November of the current year. From November 1 to 30 of 2004 total debt increased by KZT33.4 bn. (+4.72%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's exchange rate) - by 338.3 m. (+6.32%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in October of 2004 were -KZT29.7 bn. (-4.03%) or -$118.7 m. (-2.17%). Following table contains more detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Nov 30, 04 period ------------ ---------------- as of --------------- servi- stake, Oct 31, 04 Issuer issue cing bn. KZT % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 357.788 48.3 315.683 +42,105.6 +13.3 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 372.647 50.3 381.089 -8,441.6 -2.2 incl. face value 310.757 42.0 315.513 -4,756.5 -1.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 265.250 35.8 269.313 -4,063.5 -1.5 also, euronotes USD USD 45.507 6.1 46.200 -693.0 -1.5 incl. servicing 61.890 8.4 65.575 -3,685.0 -5.6 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 49.234 6.6 50.156 -922.4 -1.8 also, euronotes USD USD 12.657 1.7 15.419 -2,762.6 -17.9 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 10.092 1.4 10.371 -279.1 -2.7 incl. face value USD KZT 8.458 1.1 8.587 -128.8 -1.5 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.634 0.2 1.784 -150.3 -8.4 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 4.778 0.6 4.850 -72.8 -1.5 also, face value USD KZT 4.192 0.6 4.256 -63.8 -1.5 also, servicing USD KZT 0.585 0.1 0.594 -8.9 -1.5 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.678 0.6 4.875 -196.6 -4.0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.679 0.5 3.735 -56.0 -1.5 also, servicing USD KZT 0.999 0.1 1.139 -140.6 -12.3 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.636 0.1 0.646 -9.7 -1.5 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.587 0.1 0.596 -8.9 -1.5 also, servicing USD KZT 0.050 0.01 0.051 -0.8 -1.5 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- TOTAL 740.528 100.0 707.143 +33,385.0 +4.7 incl. face value 677.003 91.4 639.783 +37,220.3 +5.8 incl. Servicing 63.524 8.6 67.360 -3,835.3 -5.7 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 682.364 92.1 645.523 +36,840.6 +5.7 also, face value KZT KZT 631.496 85.3 593.583 +37,913.3 +6.4 also, servicing KZT KZT 50.868 6.9 51.940 -1,072.7 -2.1 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 58.164 7.9 61.619 -3,455.6 -5.6 also, face value USD USD 45.507 6.1 46.200 -693.0 -1.5 also, servicing USD USD 12.657 1.7 15.419 -2,762.6 -17.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. The equivalent amounts as of November 30, 04 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.02 per dollar, as of October 31, 04 - at KZT132.00. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Nov 30, 04 period ------------ ---------------- as of ---------------- servi- stake, Oct 31, 04 Issuer issue cing bn. KZT % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,751.8 48.3 2,391.5 +360,258.6 +15.1 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 2,866.1 50.3 2,887.0 -20,960.1 -0.7 incl. face value 2,390.1 42.0 2,390.3 -183.2 -0.01 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,040.1 35.8 2,040.3 -183.2 -0.01 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 6.1 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 476.0 8.4 496.8 -20,776.8 -4.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 378.7 6.6 380.0 -1,308.1 -0.3 also, euronotes USD USD 97.3 1.7 116.8 -19,468.8 -16.7 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 77.6 1.4 78.6 -949.9 -1.2 incl. face value USD KZT 65.1 1.1 65.1 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 12.6 0.2 13.5 -949.9 -7.0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 36.7 0.6 36.7 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 32.2 0.6 32.2 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 36.0 0.6 36.9 -949.9 -2.6 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 7.7 0.1 8.6 -949.9 -11.0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.9 0.1 4.9 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.4 0.01 0.4 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 5,695.5 100.0 5,357.1 +338,348.7 +6.3 incl. face value 5,206.9 91.4 4,846.8 +360,075.3 +7.4 incl. Servicing 488.6 8.6 510.3 -21,726.7 -4.3 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,248.1 92.1 4,890.3 +357,817.4 +7.3 also, face value KZT KZT 4,856.9 85.3 4,496.8 +360,075.3 +8.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 391.2 6.9 393.5 -2,257.9 -0.6 ------------------- ----- ------ -------- ------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 447.3 7.9 466.8 -19,468.8 also, face value USD USD 350.0 6.1 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 97.3 1.7 116.8 -19,468.8 -16.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in November by amounts of floatation was KZT73,770.9 m. (in October - KZT40,088.4 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off its liabilities, including advance repayment, in the amount of KZT33,096.4 m (KZT33,812.5 m.). November's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank at GS market totaled positive KZT40,674.6 m. Corresponding index of October - negative KZT27,645.7 m. The Ministry of finance borrowed in November did not float its bonds (in October - KZT7,815.5 m.) and paid coupons and face value of bonds for KZT7,432.2 m. (45,929.1 m.) including euronotes servicing. November's net- borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT7,432.2 m. (in October - positive KZT38,113.6 m.). Total November's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT33,118.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in October of 2004 - negative KZT31,932.4 m. The shown data evidence that November at the primary GS market was different from October's market. In particular, the very big USD offer volume of second tier banks and their clients at domestic market, and also the grown in October inflation rate, made the National Bank actively sterilize the excessive money supply by notes issuing. Growth of National Bank's issuing activity provoked actions of the Ministry of finance, which did not need the borrowed money, did not float its bonds in November. Thus, the state debt issued as GS grew in November only due to National Bank's issuing activity. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty). [2004-12-07]