ANALYSIS: In November 01, 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued in GS, reached KZT 707.1 bn or $5,357.1 m including servicing

/IRBIS, Elena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 9, 04/ - As of November 1, 2004 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT 707.1 bn, or $5,357.1 m. at the rate of KZT 132.00 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing agency's databases. While making the analysis amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from August till October of the current year. From October 1 to 31 of 2004 total debt decreased by KZT 29.7 bn (- 4.03%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's exchange rate) - by 118.7 m (-2.17%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in September, 2004 were KZT +10.9 bn (+1.51%) or $162.2 m. (+3.05%). Following table contains more detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 31, 04 as of period --------------- ---------------- Sept 30, 04 --------------- Issuer issue servicing bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 315.683 44.6 308.222 +7 460.5 +2.4 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 381.089 53.9 417.933 -36 844.7 -8.8 incl. face value 315.513 44.6 350.644 -35 130.4 -10.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 269.313 38.1 263.180 +6 133.6 +2.3 also, euronotes USD USD 46.200 6.5 87.464 -41 264.0 -47.2 incl. servicing 65.575 9.3 67.290 -1 714.3 -2.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 50.156 7.1 48.821 +1 334.8 +2.7 also, euronotes USD USD 15.419 2.2 18.468 -3 049.1 -16.5 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 10.371 1.5 10.668 -296.3 -2.8 incl. face value USD KZT 8.587 1.2 8.753 -166.5 -1.9 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.784 0.3 1.914 -129.8 -6.8 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 4.850 0.7 5.040 -189.2 -3.8 also, face value USD KZT 4.256 0.6 4.339 -82.5 -1.9 also, servicing USD KZT 0.594 0.1 0.701 -106.7 -15.2 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.875 0.7 4.969 -94.5 -1.9 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.735 0.5 3.808 -72.4 -1.9 also, servicing USD KZT 1.139 0.2 1.162 -22.1 -1.9 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. E-Kz USD KZT 0.646 0.1 0.659 -12.5 -1.9 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 0.596 0.1 0.607 -11.5 -1.9 also, servicing USD KZT 0.051 0.01 0.052 -1.0 -1.9 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- TOTAL 707.143 100.0 736.823 -29 680.5 -4.03 incl. face value 639.783 90.5 667.619 -27 836.4 -4.2 incl. Servicing 67.360 9.5 69.204 -1 844.1 -2.66 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 645.523 91.3 630.891 +14 632.6 +2.3 also, face value KZT KZT 593.583 83.9 580.155 +13 427.6 +2.3 also, servicing KZT KZT 51.940 7.3 50.735 +1 205.1 +2.4 ------------------- ----- --------- ------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 61.619 8.7 105.932 -44 313.1 -41.8 also, face value USD USD 46.200 6.5 87.464 -41 264.0 -47.2 also, servicing USD USD 15.419 2.2 18.468 -3 049.1 -16.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. The equivalent amounts as of October 31, 04 were calculated at the rate of KZT 132.00 per dollar, as of September 31, 04 - at KZT 134.56. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 31, 04 as of period --------------- ----------------- Sept 30 04 ---------------- Issuer issue servicing m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2 391.5 44.6 2 290.6 +100 942.4 +4.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 2 887.0 53.9 3 105.9 -218 890.2 -7.0 incl. face value 2 390.3 44.6 2 605.9 -215 601.5 -8.3 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2 040.3 38.1 1 955.9 +84 398.5 +4.3 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 6.5 650.0 -300 000.0 -46.2 incl. servicing 496.8 9.3 500.1 -3 288.8 -0.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 380.0 7.1 362.8 +17 148.7 +4.7 also, euronotes USD USD 116.8 2.2 137.3 -20 437.5 -14.9 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 78.6 1.5 79.3 -707.1 -0.9 incl. face value USD KZT 65.1 1.2 65.1 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 13.5 0.3 14.2 -707.1 -5.0 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 36.7 0.7 37.5 -707.1 -1.9 akimat also, face value USD KZT 32.2 0.6 32.2 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 4.5 0.1 5.2 -707.1 -13.6 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 36.9 0.7 36.9 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.5 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 8.6 0.2 8.6 0 0 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. E-Kz region USD KZT 4.9 0.1 4.9 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 4.5 0.1 4.5 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.4 0.01 0.4 0 0 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 5 357.1 100.0 5 475.8 -118 654.9 -2.17 incl. face value 4 846.8 90.5 4 961.5 -114 659.1 -2.3 incl. Servicing 510.3 9.5 514.3 -3 995.9 -0.8 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4 890.3 91.3 4 688.5 +201 782.6 +4.3 also, face value KZT KZT 4 496.8 83.9 4 311.5 +185 340.9 +4.3 also, servicing KZT KZT 393.5 7.3 377.0 +16 441.6 +4.4 ------------------- ----- --------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 466.8 8.7 787.3 -320 437.5 -40.7 also, face value USD USD 350.0 6.5 650.0 -300 000.0 -46.2 also, servicing USD USD 116.8 2.2 137.3 -20 437.5 -14.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in October by amounts of floatation was KZT 40,088.4 m. (in September - KZT 15,883.7 m). Moreover, the issuer paid off its liabilities, including advance repayment, in the amount of KZT 33,812.5 m (KZT 43,886.7 m.). October's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank at GS market totaled positive KZT 6,275.9 m. Corresponding index of September - negative KZT 27,645.7 m. The Ministry of finance borrowed in October KZT 7,815.5 m thanks to МЕКАМ floatation (in September - KZT 34,262.1 m) and paid off coupon payments for KZT 45,929.1 m. (546.1 m). October's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT 38,113.6 m (in September - positive KZT 33,716.0 m.). Total October's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT 31,932.4 m ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in September, 2004 - positive KZT 6,036.0 m. Above data are interesting mainly by sharp decrease of emission activity of Ministry of Finance, which redeemed euronotes of sovereign debt of the third emission. For that Ministry of Finance actively borrowed at the market in September, and in October necessity in borrowings fell off. Therefore National Bank had to return to usual volume of its euronotes emission in analyzed month. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central Securities Depository CJSC (Almaty). [2004-11-09]