ANALYSIS: Dynamics of conventional pension unit of Kazakhstan APF from the beginning of their activities till October 1 of 2004

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, October 22, 04/ - The following table comprises values of conventional pension unit (CPU) of Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds (APF) as of October 1, 2004 published on the official web- site of the National Bank of Kazakhstan in accordance with the data of Kazakhstan agency for regulation and supervision of financial market and financial organizations, as well as dynamics of this indicator for different periods of funds (calculated by IRBIS) are given. Funds have been sorted in the order, which corresponds to the start of their activity at the market. Trends are given: for CPU value - in percents relative to corresponding data as of September 1, 2004, for CPU changing - in percentage points (i.e. value of previous period is deducted from the current yield) relative to the same date. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPU change in % APR ------------------------------------------------------ Value since the beginning of: for last: Title Data of of ------------------------------- ---------------------- of activi- CPU on acti- fund ty start Oct 1, 04 vity 2001 2002 2003 6 mon. 3 mon. 1 mon. ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SAPF Jan15.98 288.6732 28.10 11.53 8.79 4.73 0.60 1.17 0.07 (+0.01) (-0.35) (-0.26) (-0.27) (-0.23) (+1.02) (-0.08) (-9.3) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ HBK Feb24.98 320.8015 33.43 10.84 8.20 5.13 2.17 4.10 3.58 (+0.29) (-0.28) (-0.13) (-0.12) (-0.06) (-0.86) (-0.17) (-2.1) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ VTF Mar20.98 309.8984 32.10 11.11 8.56 5.86 6.93 6.79 4.67 (+0.38) (-0.22) (-0.10) (-0.09) (-0.04) (-0.87) (+0.04) (-8.4) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NPF Mar22.98 334.8671 35.94 12.00 9.18 6.67 6.43 7.05 5.33 (+0.44) (-0.23) (-0.10) (-0.08) (-0.04) (-0.97) (+0.45) (-4.7) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kuna- Mar24.98 283.9169 28.17 10.45 7.80 5.02 6.90 5.43 9.29 ev (+0.76) (-0.03) (+0.05) (+0.10) (+0.25) (-0.60) (+0.94) (+3.0) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz- Apr19.98 326.7798 35.12 10.62 7.90 4.28 3.68 8.05 7.47 mys (+0.61) (-0.14) (-0.01) (+0.03) (+0.18) (-1.39) (+2.30) (-7.3) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ UlUm Apr20.98 321.7154 34.35 10.74 8.25 4.19 2.49 4.69 4.82 (+0.40) (-0.24) (-0.09) (-0.07) (+0.05) (-1.17) (+1.13) (+0.5) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz-n Apr28.98 310.6364 32.74 11.67 8.63 5.49 7.21 8.09 6.85 (+0.56) (-0.15) (-0.04) (-0.01) (+0.10) (-0.18) (-0.28) (-4.2) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NGD Jun07.98 312.2528 33.57 11.21 7.50 4.73 3.52 5.72 3.88 (+0.32) (-0.28) (-0.13) (-0.09) (-0.03) (-2.10) (+0.84) (-3.8) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kur- Jan22.99 259.4790 28.00 11.35 8.17 4.80 6.80 8.17 5.73 met (+0.47) (-0.19) (-0.07) (-0.04) (+0.07) (-0.40) (-0.50) (-6.7) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ ААКMG Mar03.99 224.2011 22.23 11.10 8.46 5.47 4.82 6.40 5.84 (+0.48) (-0.14) (-0.06) (-0.04) (+0.04) (-0.23) (+0.73) (-1.7) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SENIM Jul20.99 175.5290 14.51 11.44 8.73 5.40 6.67 5.10 3.05 (+0.25) (-0.15) (-0.16) (-0.15) (-0.10) (-0.72) (-1.04) (-5.8) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kor- Dec01.99 157.0042 11.78 10.09 7.03 4.25 4.51 6.39 2.76 gau (+0.23) (-0.13) (-0.14) (-0.12) (-0.06) (-0.16) (+0.94) (-6.1) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ PMK Apr07.01 130.2868 8.68 - 8.10 5.70 5.68 6.80 5.47 (+0.45) (-0.04) - (-0.04) (+0.01) (-0.80) (+0.44) (-1.4) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Otan Nov26.01 121.9691 7.71 - 7.73 5.85 5.91 6.01 5.18 (+0.43) (-0.04) - (-0.05) (-0.01) (-0.41) (-0.10) (-1.1) ----- -------- --------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kapi- Mar06.02 115.8321 6.15 - - 5.74 6.16 6.84 7.35 tal (+0.60) (+0.08) - - (+0.11) (-0.09) (+0.46) (+0.1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's recommended to make conclusions about effectiveness of assets management based not on absolute value of CPU but its speed of change since the absolute value of the unit depends on operating term of the fund. On this reason IRBIS agency operates in table with the speed of the change of CPU in different periods, expressed as percents per annum. The indicator for each period is determined as a difference between the last and first values of CPU divided by first value, expressed in percents, then divided by number of days in the period and multiplied by 365. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, derived parameter can be considered as a nominal (without taking into account inflation) yield of fund assets during period for the depositor. The following detailed table enables to observe dynamics of described above change indicator of CPU (% APR) in monthly terms for the last 12 months. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2003 2004 --------------- ------------------------------------------------- Ave- Fund Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep rage ------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- ААКMG +3.3 +6.0 +8.6 -13.7 +5.9 +7.2 +1.5 +4.3 +3.6 +5.7 +7.5 +5.8 +3.8 VTF +6.0 +2.9 +16.7 -14.3 +2.2 +9.7 +8.5 +7.7 +4.6 +2.4 +13.1 +4.7 +5.3 SAPF +4.9 +4.6 +5.4 -8.3 +10.3 -5.9 -2.6 +2.3 +0.3 -5.9 +9.3 +0.1 +1.2 Kaz-n +2.5 +3.1 +9.3 -16.8 +13.7 +7.9 +5.0 +5.8 +7.7 +6.2 +11.0 +6.9 +5.2 Kaz-mys +1.2 +3.5 +43.8 -17.0 +7.0 +15.5 -7.0 +4.2 +0.5 +1.8 +14.8 +7.5 +6.3 Kapital +4.5 +4.9 +12.0 -13.4 +6.5 +7.8 +5.6 +4.6 +6.0 +5.8 +7.2 +7.4 +4.9 Korgau +0.7 +8.5 +9.6 -14.2 +2.9 +3.7 +5.4 +2.4 -0.1 +7.3 +8.9 +2.8 +3.2 Kunaev +3.2 +1.8 +4.0 -9.3 +4.8 +12.7 +9.0 +9.2 +6.4 +0.8 +6.3 +9.3 +4.8 Kurmet +2.1 +4.0 +8.3 -20.5 +4.4 +8.1 +4.1 +4.5 +7.2 +6.1 +12.4 +5.7 +3.9 HBK +6.5 +1.1 +12.0 -11.1 +4.1 +8.6 -2.1 -1.3 +4.1 +3.0 +5.7 +3.6 +2.9 NGD +2.8 +2.3 +14.2 -13.6 +6.7 +16.1 -0.6 +3.0 +1.3 +5.5 +7.7 +3.9 +4.1 NPF +4.0 +4.7 +15.1 -12.9 +9.2 +11.0 +5.6 +7.4 +4.0 +5.6 +10.0 +5.3 +5.8 Otan +4.7 +2.6 +7.1 -4.4 +5.1 +7.6 +5.1 +6.5 +5.5 +6.4 +6.3 +5.2 +4.8 SENIM +2.3 +0.5 +7.8 -17.2 +8.8 +7.3 +6.5 +11.5 +6.2 +3.3 +8.8 +3.1 +4.1 UlUm +1.8 +2.2 +12.2 -7.8 +12.9 +11.6 -3.1 +2.5 +1.4 +4.8 +4.4 +4.8 +4.0 PMK +3.2 +4.2 +11.2 -16.9 +6.0 +10.1 +3.8 +5.4 +4.1 +7.9 +6.9 +5.5 +4.3 ------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- Average +3.4 +3.6 +12.3 -13.2 +6.9 +8.7 +2.8 +5.0 +3.9 +4.2 +8.8 +5.1 +4.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: VTF - PAP Valut-Tranzit-Fund JSC; Kunaev - PAPFOT named after Kunaev JSC; NPF - OAPF Narodniy Pensionniy Fond JSC; Kaz-n - PAPF Kazakhstan JSC; HBK - APF Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC; Kazmys - APF Kazakhmys JSC; UlUm - till Oct 10,01 OAPF Ular CJSC, on November 1 - OAPF UlarUmit CJSC; NGD - PAPF NefteGas-Dem CJSC; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO - KaspiyMunaiGas JSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM JSC; Korgau - APF Korgau JSC; PMK - KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan JSC; Otan - OAPF OTAN JSC; SAPF - State Accumulative Pension Fund JSC; Kapital - APF Capital CJSC; "-" - data is absent because of inactivity or liquidation of the fund. [2004-10-22]