In September of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 14.1% to $201.2 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 8, 04/ - In September of 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 462 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT 27,215.9 m or $201.2 m at current rate of KASE effective on the day the deals were made. The stated sum takes 4.3% of the monthly stock exchange turnover (in August - 5.1%). In comparison with August of 2004 volume of transactions decreased by $32.9 m (KZT 4.7 bn) or 14.1% (14.6% in terms of tenge). Relative to September of 2003 trade volume rose by $143.0 m. (KZT 18.6 bn) or 3.5 times (3.2 times in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover at KASE in September is presented in the following way: 4.7% ($9,570.2 th.) of conducted deals fell to the stake of primary offerings; stake of purchase and sale sector was 95.3% ($191,580.8 th.). In SBS (state block of shares) sector no deals were made. Structure of exchange's CS market in August of 2004 was following: the stake of primary offerings was 4.5% of transactions volume ($10,559.7 th.), purchase and sale sector - 95.6% ($223,500.4 th.). Share market recorded lowering of the turnover by 23.9% or $40.6 m to $129.2 m. This fall cannot be attributed to slump of market activity as August growth was reached mainly due to large operations with Corporation Kazakhmys shares (please, see previous review). In September there were irregular deals as well including four direct deals (agreed between two parties) with Halyk Bnak shares (HSBK) taking 64.8% of the turnover. These deals are irregular considering their total volume - $83.7 m or KZT 11.3 bn, the price, which exceeded usual market level for HSBK 4 times and their interrelationship. They were also conducted through one member of KASE using 5 depo accounts. More detailed information is presented in the Weekly Stock Exchange Market Review publication of IRBIS. Without these deals, share market registered they usual activity. In price context, September's share market was characterized by predominant increase of yields. Weighted average day prices increased over 13 shares (out of 27 circulating emissions), decreased - 8, remained unchanged - 6. A growth leader is RAHT - 3.4 times, a loss NFBN - 2.6 times. KASE_Shares index grew up 6.3% during the month due to positive dynamics of demand prices for VTBNp, VTBN, KZMS and TSBN. In general share market has registered no fundamental changes. Number of share involved in operations increased from 22 to 27, number of deals fell from 333 to 313. At the same time, 85% of number of deals and 92% of deals volume fell on stake of direct (agreed) deals. Thus, stock exchange market is still not transparent and closed for investors. Corporate bond market in contrast was very active. Volume of deals increased 11.9% compared August (or $7,660.4 th) to $72.0 m. Number of bonds traded increased by 3 issues (from 45 to 48), number of deals fell from 176 to 149. September demonstrated low market concentration. Five per cent of instruments included in KASE listing by end of the month (or 4 bonds - CCBNb4, CSBNb4, KZIKb5 and VTZLb1) took 51.1% of the sectors turnover including floatation. The same indicator in August was at 53.8%. Notably, compared to total stock exchange capitalization of bonds market over mentioned instruments did not exceed 3.3%. In other words, volume of floatation has a weak impact on liquidity. Only 2 emissions out of 3 floated at KASE in September (CCBNb4, CCBNb5 and KZIKb5) were included in TOP-5 list considering volume oif concluded deals. CCBNb4 took first position, KZIKb5 - third. At the same time, trades over mentioned bonds were opened only on September 28, while specialized offering was conducted only for KZIKb5 (on September 27, 2004). Thus, brokers appeared to be interested in new instruments. Investment attractiveness of the instruments could be presented by following data. Yield to maturity of CCBNb4 varied in September from 7.95 to 8.25% while KASE_BY index fluctuated from 7.79 to 7.87%. Corresponding indicator for KZIKb5, inflation indexed bonds, - 7.69%. The most important feature of September on the bond market is fluctuation of KASE_BY index. This index smoothed out of daily working fluctuations stabilized in the first decade and grew up by the end of the months will 7.87% APR (level recorded in mid July). This growth was linked with increasing level of inflation indexing through indexation of bonds to inflation level. Growth of yields was recorded over 30 instruments out of 48 traded in September. The stock exchange market of corporate bonds looked more transparent than share market. Out of 149 concluded deals only 31% in terms of numbers and 25% in terms of volume were made using direct mode. However, one should note that trades in share market are conducted using 15-minute Frankfurt auction, while bonds trades are not subjected to such procedure. Thus, in the latter case trader could agree parameters of submitted bids and conduct deal in formal market mode. The table below is supplemental and statistical information characterizing CS market at KASE in September of 2004. Change of the lists of KASE securities in September of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 41 0 75 +2 49 0 B 31 -2 7 0 30 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 72 -2 82 +2 77 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 73 -3 82 +2 78 0 -------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable securities at KASE in September of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and including primary floatation) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 83,723.0 11,335.2 9 41.6 +30.0 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 12,134.8 1,630.7 6 6.0 - CSBNb4 Bank Caspian JSC 11,800.5 1,600.9 3 5.9 -0.03 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 11,060.1 1,501.7 54 5.5 +26.8 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 7,312.6 984.0 5 3.6 - BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 5,752.1 780.2 9 2.9 +1.7 VTZLb1 Kazuvelirprom JSC 5,543.3 749.9 3 2.8 +0.6 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 4,884.3 661.7 18 2.4 -1.4 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 4,621.6 625.7 33 2.3 +12.0 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 4,493.7 607.3 40 2.2 +0.7 KZASb2 KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC 3,915.8 531.6 10 1.9 -0.1 NRBNb3 Nurbank OJSC 3,896.7 525.1 2 1.9 +1.2 VTZLp Kazuvelirprom JSC 2,937.2 397.3 4 1.5 +0.5 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 2,631.5 355.6 5 1.3 -0.2 ASFIb4 Astana-finance JSC 2,592.9 350.5 24 1.3 -1.9 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 2,498.7 338.7 4 1.2 +0.7 KZMS Kazakhmys JSC 2,455.4 331.1 34 1.2 -23.2 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,418.8 326.3 5 1.2 +0.4 BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 2,407.2 325.8 7 1.2 +0.5 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 2,283.8 310.4 6 1.1 +0.6 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 2,033.5 274.3 3 1.0 -1.6 HSBKb Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 1,707.0 231.1 3 0.8 -4.5 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,565.1 211.7 25 0.8 +11.2 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 1,460.8 198.1 10 0.7 +30.5 TXBNb2 TexaKaBank OJSC 1,330.0 180.2 5 0.7 -1.5 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,271.6 172.1 3 0.6 +0.7 KZTOe1 KazTransOil JSC 1,210.1 164.1 2 0.6 +2.0 ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,117.7 151.9 4 0.6 -10.7 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 897.0 120.7 3 0.4 +3.0 KZIKb1 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 843.2 113.7 2 0.4 -0.4 ZERD Zerde OJSC 805.5 108.8 16 0.4 -23.1 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 761.1 102.7 3 0.4 -6.0 ORDBb1 Corporation Ordabasy JSC 747.0 101.4 2 0.4 -1.4 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 694.4 93.6 1 0.3 +1.3 ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 650.8 87.6 3 0.3 +3.5 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 564.1 76.0 2 0.3 -1.4 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 469.0 63.3 2 0.2 +9.5 VTZL Kazuvelirprom JSC 415.6 56.1 9 0.2 -22.2 RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 412.6 55.7 3 0.2 +2.5 RAHT Rakhat OJSC 354.7 48.0 1 0.2 +236.8 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 317.2 43.0 2 0.2 0 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 255.5 34.7 7 0.1 0 CHFMb1 Chimfarm JSC 231.7 31.4 1 0.1 +1.6 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 215.6 29.2 4 0.1 -6.3 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 179.6 24.4 1 0.1 +1.9 HSBKb2 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 132.7 17.9 3 0.1 -0.6 KKGBb3 Kazkommertsbank JSC 112.6 15.3 1 0.1 +0.8 PKKRe1 PetroKazakhstan Finance B.V. 110.9 15.0 1 0.1 -3.1 MREKb1 Mangistau Electricity Grid Distribution Company OJSC 103.2 14.0 2 0.1 +1.7 TXBNb1 TexaKaBank OJSC 94.4 12.7 2 0.05 +3.8 NFBN Neftebank OJSC 89.1 12.0 1 0.04 -61.5 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunaigas OJSC 75.0 10.2 2 0.04 -1.3 ASFIb2 Astana-finance JSC 73.9 10.0 1 0.04 -2.9 MMGZp Mangistaumunaigas OJSC 59.5 8.0 1 0.03 -21.4 VTTHb1 ТЕХНО-LIFE JSC 59.3 8.0 1 0.03 +2.4 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARMS OJSC 52.0 7.0 1 0.03 +1.0 UKTCb1 AES Ust-Kamenogorsk TEC OJSC 51.1 6.9 4 0.03 +1.7 TEBNb Temirbank JSC 50.1 6.8 1 0.02 +0.4 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 38.6 5.2 1 0.02 +0.7 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 32.3 4.4 2 0.02 +1.8 KKGBe2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 31.6 4.3 3 0.02 -5.9 ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 27.5 3.7 2 0.01 -2.2 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 19.4 2.6 2 0.01 -5.3 CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 14.0 1.9 1 0.01 -2.5 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 13.5 1.8 4 0.01 +38.9 NRBNb1 Nurbank OJSC 12.0 1.6 1 0.01 +1.95 ALKZp Aluminium Kazakhstan JSC 10.1 1.4 4 0.01 0 HSBKp Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 4.8 0.6 5 0.002 +24.0 CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC 3.4 0.5 4 0.002 -2.3 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 1.3 0.2 2 0.001 0 ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 1.0 0.1 1 <0.001 -2.2 KZCRp TNK Kazchrome JSC 1.0 0.1 7 <0.001 0 HSBKb3 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 0.8 0.1 1 <0.001 -2.0 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 0.6 0.1 1 <0.001 +7.5 TEBN Temirbank JSC 0.4 0.0 2 <0.001 0 -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 75 201,151.0 27,215.9 462 100.0 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in September of 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 31.08.04 3,184.1 188.31 3,636.5 7.74 161.69 3,758.3 01.09.04 3,222.1 188.98 3,641.5 7.75 161.65 4,080.5 02.09.04 3,262.0 193.92 3,642.8 7.70 162.06 6,262.8 03.09.04 3,457.2 193.60 3,641.4 7.69 162.14 9,950.0 06.09.04 3,441.2 196.77 3,638.5 7.72 162.09 1,600.9 07.09.04 3,441.6 193.31 3,634.1 7.78 161.68 6,243.1 08.09.04 3,445.8 192.89 3,636.0 7.74 161.98 7,095.6 09.09.04 3,577.5 189.82 3,636.9 7.71 162.25 3,286.2 10.09.04 5,605.8 189.71 3,638.0 7.67 162.52 3,292.9 13.09.04 3,415.7 189.46 3,642.7 7.73 162.29 4,142.0 14.09.04 3,382.2 196.56 3,643.6 7.71 162.43 3,146.1 15.09.04 3,377.2 189.46 3,643.4 7.72 162.41 4,012.0 16.09.04 3,478.3 189.25 3,640.3 7.75 162.29 20,097.0 17.09.04 3,479.1 189.59 3,637.3 7.69 162.64 2,795.0 20.09.04 3,336.8 195.53 3,633.2 7.76 162.33 4,153.1 21.09.04 3,606.3 189.62 3,632.9 7.75 162.47 69,733.4 22.09.04 3,666.7 197.15 3,637.1 7.75 162.51 3,241.4 23.09.04 3,653.6 190.24 3,635.9 7.78 162.32 6,901.5 24.09.04 3,691.1 190.02 3,656.4 7.75 162.56 6,488.9 27.09.04 3,857.5 194.70 3,659.6 7.77 162.55 8,150.8 28.09.04 3,848.5 200.40 3,657.2 7.88 161.94 7,778.7 29.09.04 3,508.5 200.16 3,659.7 7.79 162.51 6,054.9 30.09.04 3,308.8 200.18 3,662.3 7.79 162.47 12,644.1 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +124.8 +11.87 +25.8 +0.05 +0.78 +3.9% +6.3% +0.7% +0.7% +0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their current market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were included in the official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued and paid shares and their last market values. In case deals in company's shares are absent its capitalization is equal to zero. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2004-10-08]