U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 27, 04/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day (dollar was traded on TOM terms at KASE then). Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM KASE's session Main Additional Additional (morning) (day) (evening) Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 ----------------- ------------- ------------- Indicator Value Trend Value trend value trend ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Opening rate 134.65 -0.05 134.53 -0.31 134.80 - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Maximum rate 134.65 -0.27 134.77 -0.08 134.80 - Volume on max. Price 50 -550 100 -400 300 +300 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Minimum rate 134.54 -0.16 134.53 -0.13 134.80 - volume on min. Price 5520 +5470 300 +200 300 +300 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Closing rate 134.54 -0.38 134.77 +0.11 134.80 - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Weight. aver. rate 134.56 -0.29 134.66 -0.09 134.80 - Volume of the session 59255 +53655 11800 +1300 300 +300 Number of deals 213 +168 35 -36 1 +1 Number of participants 16 0 14 -1 3 +3 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Best bid* 134.53 -0.35 134.73 +0.09 - - Best ask* 134.54 -0.41 134.80 +0.13 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- REUTERS Bid* 134.51 -0.32 134.76 +0.14 134.76 +0.15 REUTERS Ask* 134.61 -0.32 134.86 +0.14 134.81 +0.10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- * at closing of the session at KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms ------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY: Morning Day ---------------------------- Session: session: time (ALT): Price ------------- ------------- ------------ Level volume Deals volume deals volume deals from to ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- 134.77 100 1 100 1 15:28 15:28 134.76 400 2 400 2 14:49 15:15 134.75 700 3 700 3 14:49 15:27 134.74 300 1 300 1 14:11 14:11 134.73 100 1 100 1 15:22 15:22 134.72 900 4 900 4 11:48 14:10 134.71 300 1 300 1 11:48 11:48 134.68 500 2 500 2 11:54 12:04 134.67 600 2 600 2 12:04 14:00 134.66 300 1 300 1 11:54 11:54 134.65 50 1 3300 6 3350 7 10:24 12:35 134.64 3200 7 3200 7 11:37 12:35 134.63 100 1 100 1 12:28 12:28 134.60 12420 78 12420 78 10:25 10:32 134.59 400 7 400 1 800 8 10:28 11:35 134.58 4535 29 4535 29 10:27 10:35 134.57 710 10 710 10 10:35 10:44 134.56 2010 22 300 1 2310 23 10:35 11:35 134.55 33610 54 33610 54 10:35 10:57 134.54 5520 12 5520 12 10:36 10:59 134.53 300 1 300 1 11:33 11:33 ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 59255 213 11800 35 71055 248 10:24 15:28 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply at trading system of KASE for the last 5 days (the amount of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closed, th. USD) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Sep 21, 04 Sep 22, 04 Sep 23, 04 Sep 24, 04 Sep 27, 04 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Bid 6,430 3,320 7,950 3,300 9,870 Ask 6,330 7,350 6,100 4,065 8,365 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Difference -100 +4,030 -1,850 +765 -1,505 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Market conditions varied. First half of the day recorded tenge strengthening on the background of simultaneously increased dollar sales from several banks. Monopolization level was very high, a single trader managed to control its significant part. It is not excluded that behavior of this trader provoked dollar sales on the morning session. Other traders were forced to sell dollars as they took notice of rapidly falling dollar rate. In the afternoon, the market recorded compensational setback of dollar. On the day session, dollar gained 23 points thanks to fallen supply and sensitive support from one bank. It is likely that traders were closing short positions opened in the beginning of the day. As a result, closing evening quotations were higher than on Friday. Tactics of traders suggest that clients of commercial banks supplied main volume of dollars. Volume of some deal reached 2 million dollars. It did not look like positional trades. The market has finally defined its further direction. Stability of fundamental factors affected the market and traditionally active autumn period proved long-term nature of market trends. This fact is supported by excessive tenge liquidity of banking sector and 4 times increase of supply. Day results suggest that USD price fixed at the evening session with TOM settlement terms is likely to be a real price level of Tuesday. Absence of tenge deficit will not work for further growth of dollar supply. At the same time, speculative mood of traders increased today. It is not excluded that banks will play downward on Tuesday opening short positions. Tuesday forecast does not look clear. Much will depend on dollar supply from clients of banks, position of the central bank and size of interventions. Probable development is positional trade around 134.80 and further growth of tenge. [2004-09-27]