ANALYSIS: Dynamics of conditional pension unit of Kazakhstan APF from the beginning of their activities till July 1 of 2004

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, July 23, 04/ - In the following table values of conditional pension unit (CPU) of Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds (APF) as of July 1, 2004 published in the official web-site of the National Bank of Kazakhstan in accordance with the data of Kazakhstan agency for regulation and supervision of financial market and financial organizations, as well as dynamics of this indicator for different periods of funds' activity (calculated by IRBIS) are given. Funds have been sorted in the order, which corresponds to the start of their activity at the market. Trends are given: for CPU value - in percents relative to corresponding data as of June 1, 2004, for CPU changing - in percentage points (i.e. value of previous period is deducted from the current yield) relative to the same date. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CPU change in % APR ------------------------------------------------------ Value since the beginning of: for last: Title Data of of ------------------------------- ---------------------- of activi- CPU on acti- fund ty start Jun 1.04 vity 2001 2002 2003 6 mon. 3 mon. 1 mon. ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SAPF Jan15.98 287.8261 29.06 12.24 9.53 5.31 -0.78 0.03 0.32 (+0.03) (-0.36) (-0.28) (-0.31) (-0.29) (-0.86) (+2.11) (-2.0) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ HBK Feb24.98 317.5171 34.24 11.20 8.52 5.25 0.33 0.22 4.09 (+0.34) (-0.28) (-0.13) (-0.12) (-0.05) (-1.36) (-1.55) (+5.4) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ VTF Mar20.98 304.6863 32.55 11.23 8.59 5.61 3.02 6.96 4.56 (+0.37) (-0.25) (-0.12) (-0.10) (-0.04) (-2.09) (-1.74) (-3.2) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NPF Mar22.98 329.0224 36.46 12.15 9.23 6.49 3.98 5.71 3.98 (+0.33) (-0.31) (-0.16) (-0.15) (-0.12) (-1.92) (-2.36) (-3.4) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kuna- Mar24.98 280.0850 28.69 10.67 7.93 4.88 5.48 8.27 6.42 ev (+0.53) (-0.14) (-0.05) (-0.01) (+0.11) (+0.42) (-2.11) (-2.8) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz- Apr19.98 320.2792 35.50 10.59 7.73 3.57 0.44 -0.73 0.51 mys (+0.04) (-0.45) (-0.24) (-0.24) (-0.18) (-7.34) (-5.05) (-3.7) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ UlUm Apr20.98 317.9580 35.14 11.05 8.51 4.06 2.84 0.26 1.39 (+0.11) (-0.41) (-0.22) (-0.23) (-0.15) (-1.85) (-3.46) (-1.1) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kaz-n Apr28.98 304.4313 33.08 11.69 8.51 4.96 3.74 6.20 7.70 (+0.63) (-0.13) (-0.02) (+0.03) (+0.19) (-0.30) (-0.08) (+1.9) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ NGD Jun07.98 307.8126 34.23 11.44 7.56 4.50 2.11 1.27 1.34 (+0.11) (-0.41) (-0.23) (-0.20) (-0.18) (-2.20) (-5.00) (-1.7) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kur- Jan22.99 254.2459 28.33 11.34 8.00 4.14 1.18 5.31 7.24 met (+0.59) (-0.15) (-0.03) (+0.02) (+0.20) (-0.20) (-0.30) (+2.7) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ ААКMG Mar03.99 220.6411 22.62 11.26 8.53 5.23 1.39 3.18 3.62 (+0.30) (-0.23) (-0.15) (-0.14) (-0.08) (-0.85) (-1.20) (-0.7) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ SENIM Jul20.99 173.3016 14.80 11.75 8.98 5.38 3.75 8.16 6.20 (+0.51) (-0.07) (-0.07) (-0.05) (+0.08) (-0.29) (-0.35) (-5.3) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kor- Dec01.99 154.5144 11.89 10.19 6.99 3.82 -0.06 2.56 -0.09 gau (-0.01) (-0.22) (-0.25) (-0.24) (-0.23) (-1.65) (-1.26) (-2.5) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ PMK Apr07.01 128.0921 8.68 - 8.09 5.42 2.00 4.47 4.13 (+0.34) (-0.09) (-0.11) (-0.06) (-1.22) (-2.03) (-1.3) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Otan Nov26.01 120.1489 7.76 - 7.78 5.73 4.24 5.73 5.49 (+0.45) (-0.04) (-0.04) (+0.01) (-0.28) (-0.71) (-1.0) ----- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------ Kapi- Mar06.02 113.8699 5.97 - - 5.46 2.77 5.39 5.95 tal (+0.49) (+0.03) (+0.06) (-1.05) (-0.64) (+1.4) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ It's recommended to make conclusions about effectiveness of assets management based not on absolute value of CPU but its speed of change since the absolute value of the unit depends on operating term of the fund. On this reason IRBIS agency operates in table with the speed of the change of CPU in different periods, expressed as percents per annum. The indicator for each period is determined as a difference between the last and first values of CPU divided by first value, expressed in percents, then divided by number of days in the period and multiplied by 365. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, derived parameter can be considered as a nominal (without taking into account inflation) yield of fund assets during period for the depositor. The following detailed table enables to observe dynamics of described above change indicator of CPU (% APR) in monthly terms for the last 12 months. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 2004 --------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Aver- Фонд Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun age ------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- ----- ААКMG -5.4 +5.8 +8.6 +3.3 +6.0 +8.6 -13.7 +5.9 +7.2 +1.5 +4.3 +3.6 +3.0 VTF +3.0 +11.1 +7.8 +6.0 +2.9 +16.7 -14.3 +2.2 +9.7 +8.5 +7.7 +4.6 +5.5 SAPF +3.8 -0.5 +41.3 +4.9 +4.6 +5.4 -8.3 +10.3 -5.9 -2.6 +2.3 +0.3 +4.6 Kaz-n -0.7 +8.8 +7.6 +2.5 +3.1 +9.3 -16.8 +13.7 +7.9 +5.0 +5.8 +7.7 +4.5 Kaz-mys -3.8 +11.4 +12.4 +1.2 +3.5 +43.8 -17.0 +7.0 +15.5 -7.0 +4.2 +0.5 +6.0 Capital +3.2 +9.4 +23.6 +4.5 +4.9 +12.0 -13.4 +6.5 +7.8 +5.6 +4.6 +6.0 +6.2 Korgau +11.9 +10.7 +16.5 +0.7 +8.5 +9.6 -14.2 +2.9 +3.7 +5.4 +2.4 -0.1 +4.8 Kunaev +25.6 +14.0 +4.7 +3.2 +1.8 +4.0 -9.3 +4.8 +12.7 +9.0 +9.2 +6.4 +7.2 Kurmet 0 +8.7 +10.9 +2.1 +4.0 +8.3 -20.5 +4.4 +8.1 +4.1 +4.5 +7.2 +3.5 HBK -0.9 +4.2 +18.5 +6.5 +1.1 +12.0 -11.1 +4.1 +8.6 -2.1 -1.3 +4.1 +3.6 NGD -0.8 +7.9 +9.3 +2.8 +2.3 +14.2 -13.6 +6.7 +16.1 -0.6 +3.0 +1.3 +4.1 NPF -1.9 +11.4 +8.8 +4.0 +4.7 +15.1 -12.9 +9.2 +11.0 +5.6 +7.4 +4.0 +5.5 Otan +6.9 +8.7 +10.5 +4.7 +2.6 +7.1 -4.4 +5.1 +7.6 +5.1 +6.5 +5.5 +5.5 SENIM +9.2 +13.4 +9.6 +2.3 +0.5 +7.8 -17.2 +8.8 +7.3 +6.5 +11.5 +6.2 +5.5 UlUm -3.8 +5.1 +13.6 +1.8 +2.2 +12.2 -7.8 +12.9 +11.6 -3.1 +2.5 +1.4 +4.0 PMK -2.8 +9.9 +7.5 +3.2 +4.2 +11.2 -16.9 +6.0 +10.1 +3.8 +5.4 +4.1 +3.8 ------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ---- ----- Average +2.7 +8.7 +13.2 +3.4 +3.6 +12.3 -13.2 +6.9 +8.7 +2.8 +5.0 +3.9 +4.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: VTF - PAPF Valut-tranzit fund CJSC; Kunaev - PAPFOT after Kunaev CJSC; NPF - OAPF Narodniy Pensionniy Fond CJSC; Kaz-n - PAPF Kazakhstan CJSC; HBK - APF of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan CJSC; Kazmys - APF Kazakhmys CJSC; UlUm - till Oct 10,01 OAPF Ular CJSC, on November 1 - OAPF UlarUmit CJSC; NGD - PAPF NefteGas-Dem; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO - KaspiyMunaiGas CJSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM CJSC; Korgau - APF Korgau CJSC; PMK - KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan CJSC; Otan - OAPF OTAN CJSC; SAPF - State Accumulative Pension Fund CJSC; Capital - APF Capital CJSC; "-" - data is absent because of inactivity or liquidation of the fund. [2004-07-23]