U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 31, 04/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (over 99% of country's foreign exchange market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day. Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM KASE's session Main Additional Additional (morning) (day) (evening) Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 ----------------- ------------- ------------- Indicator Value Trend Value trend value trend ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Opening rate 138.40 -0.20 138.85 +0.01 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Maximum rate 139.00 0 138.97 +0.13 - - Volume on max. Price 5 0 180 -120 0 0 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Minimum rate 138.40 +0.05 138.83 +0.10 - - volume on min. Price 5 0 300 0 0 0 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Closing rate 138.89 +0.04 138.97 +0.14 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Weight. aver. rate 138.93 +0.05 138.89 +0.10 - - Volume of the session 17765 -3015 7230 +70 0 0 Number of deals 202 +55 42 -1 0 0 Number of participants 18 -1 18 +4 0 0 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Best ask* 138.88 +0.03 138.94 +0.16 - - Best bid* 138.89 +0.01 138.97 +0.14 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- REUTERS Bid* 138.82 -0.04 138.81 +0.10 138.90 +0.13 REUTERS Ask* 138.95 -0.01 138.91 +0.10 139.00 +0.18 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- * at closing of the session at KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms ------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY: Morning Day ---------------------------- Session: session: time (ALT): Price ------------- ------------- ------------ level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- 139.00 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 138.98 10 2 10 2 10:19 10:19 138.97 5 1 180 2 185 3 10:18 15:29 138.96 165 1 20 1 185 2 10:25 15:29 138.95 4320 49 450 3 4770 52 10:17 15:27 138.94 1930 30 1050 4 2980 34 10:21 15:26 138.93 2205 32 350 3 2555 35 10:28 15:20 138.92 4305 39 500 2 4805 41 10:30 15:02 138.91 2360 22 300 1 2660 23 10:30 15:01 138.90 1055 12 400 2 1455 14 10:16 15:00 138.89 1400 12 1400 12 10:58 10:59 138.88 830 5 830 5 12:52 14:52 138.87 400 2 400 2 12:21 14:37 138.86 300 4 300 4 14:11 14:13 138.85 1150 7 1150 7 11:52 14:29 138.84 1000 5 1000 5 14:13 14:22 138.83 300 1 300 1 14:13 14:13 138.40 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 17765 202 7230 42 24995 244 10:15 15:29 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply at trading system of KASE for the last 5 days (the amount of active bids by the time of morning and day trades closed, th. USD) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Mar 25, 04 Mar 26, 04 Mar 29, 04 Mar 30, 04 Mar 31, 03 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Bid 13,210 4,215 3,345 2,360 11,105 Ask 5,700 8,365 3,600 4,010 3,140 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Difference -7,510 +4,150 +255 +1,650 -7,965 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Distinguishing feature of the day - strong demand for dollar on the part of medium and small second tier banks, which allowed traditional USD sellers to drag the market up preserving significant trades volume. It can therefore be inferred that it is sellers who shaped market today. Considerable volume of unsatisfied offer (refer to table) can be explained by this fact. Traders don't need tenge due to excessive liquidity and continue moving upwards for further opening of short positions. In IRBIS specialists' opinions, dollar is not likely to rose even in short-term perspective. This is due to unchangeable factors shaping the market, traders bullish view of tenge and low speculative component in their behavior. Apparently, factors that positively influences dollar rise are prevailing at the moment since period for tax annual payments has finished, while exporters revenues are typically sold in the mid year. Thanks to these forces market may consolidate well above 139.00. However, general bearish expectations in regards to dollar will hardly allow to go up at KZT140 per $1. Forecast by IRBIS for Thursday - positioned trades and attempt to consolidate above 139.00. [2004-03-31]