Kazakhstan currency market expects dollar's falling by the end of March

/REUTERS, Alma-Ata, Tatyana Seroshtanova, March 5, 04/ - Tendency of dollar's falling relative to tenge will remain in March under conditions of high prices for Kazakhstan major exported goods - oil and metals, dealers say, they do not exclude some short-term speculative periods of USD's growth. On Friday weighted average rate of tenge at stock exchange's trades rose up to KZT139.30 for $1 from KZT139.63 on Thursday. Trade volume rose to $19.240 m. from $13.275 m. yesterday. Dollar was growing since the beginning of the week at volatile trades, having reached the maximum on Thursday - KZT139.63 for $1. "Prices for oil are fixed on a very high level - last week they fluctuated from $30.54 to $33 per barrel for the most popular sort Brent. Of course, our oil is cheaper, but anyway. Currency proceeds obviously have not been reduced. By the end of March we will close at least at KZT138.40 for $1" , - said dealer of bank Caspian Ivan Novikov. Timur Gabasov from Citibank agrees with him, also expecting "good strengthening of tenge against UD dollar". "I expect KZT138.00 for $1 by the end of March ", - Gabasov said. The short-term strengthening of dollar, according to dealers' opinion, occurs mainly due to speculative bursts of players. "Sure people must earn money. So some of them earned and some of them lost " - said Gabasov. National Bank, which holds the policy of smoothing of abrupt fluctuations of exchange rate, is still almost the only buyer of USD, although it did not buy dollars for the last week of February because sellers reduced activity because of dollar's strengthening against euro. On Wednesday National Bank's head Anvar Saidenov forecasted that weighted average rate of tenge against dollar would strengthen during the year to above the level of last year, when it was KZT149.45/$1. "Most probably, National Bank will be keeping. Japanese variant of rate's correlation, i.e. Central bank buys the whole superfluous currency in the non-stop intervention mode", - said dealer of Caspian bank. Some participants, forecasting national currency's rate for this year, refer to growing positive foreign trade balance of Kazakhstan, which in 2003 equaled, according to on-line data, to $4.6 bn., and also to other positive macroeconomic indicators. "Gold and foreign exchange reserves together with funds of the National fund may grow by the end of the year up to $15 bn. For this year I forecast growth by 85%", - assumed Novikov from Caspian bank. According to National Bank's data, as of March 1 of 2004, country's international reserves as the whole, including funds of the National fund rose to $9.2 bn. from, $9.1 bn. as of February 1. There are no reasons able to change the situation appeared at the currency market yet, dealers say. "Exported proceeds is stably coming to the country and we can see no changing of the mood", - Gabasov said. [2004-02-25]