U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, September 23, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM KASE's session Main Additional Additional (morning) (day) (evening) Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 ----------------- ------------- ------------- Indicator value trend value trend value trend ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Opening rate 147.00 0 148.03 +0.30 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Maximum rate 148.07 +0.22 148.40 +0.62 - - Volume on max. price 500 +495 300 -600 0 0 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Minimum rate 147.00 0 148.03 +0.53 - - volume on min. price 5 0 50 0 0 0 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Closing rate 148.05 +0.30 148.40 +0.73 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Weight. aver. rate 148.05 +0.36 148.25 +0.57 - - Volume of the session 18800 +13285 6710 -1590 0 0 Number of deals 66 +18 40 -2 0 0 Number of participants 20 +3 13 -3 0 -1 ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Best ask* 148.03 +0.29 148.35 +0.70 - - Best bid* 148.05 +0.15 148.40 +0.71 - - ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- REUTERS Bid* 148.05 +0.27 148.38 +0.71 148.48 +0.86 REUTERS Ask* 148.20 +0.34 148.48 +0.61 148.54 +0.81 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- * at closing of the session at KASE. out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms ------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY: Morning Day ---------------------------- session: session: time (ALT): Price ------------- ------------- ------------ level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- 148.40 300 2 300 2 15:28 15:29 148.35 435 2 435 2 15:25 15:26 148.32 300 1 300 1 15:21 15:21 148.30 2905 16 2905 16 15:16 15:24 148.25 300 1 300 1 15:11 15:11 148.22 300 1 300 1 15:07 15:07 148.20 300 1 300 1 15:07 15:07 148.18 200 1 200 1 15:07 15:07 148.17 500 3 500 3 15:05 15:06 148.16 400 2 400 2 14:14 15:05 148.15 100 2 100 2 14:14 14:14 148.13 300 1 300 1 14:07 14:07 148.08 300 2 300 2 12:53 12:53 148.07 500 1 10 2 510 3 10:37 12:53 148.06 605 4 5 1 610 5 10:37 12:47 148.05 16295 45 5 1 16300 46 10:36 12:47 148.04 355 4 355 4 10:37 10:59 148.03 50 1 50 1 12:26 12:26 148.02 500 1 500 1 10:29 10:29 148.00 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 147.99 5 1 5 1 10:29 10:29 147.98 510 4 510 4 10:23 10:25 147.97 10 2 10 2 10:23 10:23 147.95 10 2 10 2 10:19 10:20 147.00 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 18800 66 6710 40 25510 106 10:15 15:29 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Regardless existing deficit of tenge participants of the Kazakhstan market of US dollar today were able to realize their devaluation expectations. During the day the dollar rate has increased for almost 1 tenge, breaking psychological level of resistance at 148.00 and fixing at a higher points. According to currency dealers, who were surveyed today by REUTERS, dollar has increased thanks to inflow of tenge that came from repayment of governmental securities and psychological spirit of traders, encouraged by relatively small volume of realization of exporters' currency revenues at domestic market in September. During the period from September 19 to September 23, according to IRBIS data about KZT5,810.0 m on GS repayment were transferred to banks' corresponding accounts (exact figures for September 23 are not ready). At the same time only one issuance of MEOKAM was floated at an amount of KZT1,970.0 m. Bing unable to float its notes having such high repo "overnight" rates, the National Bank supported the tenge deficit in the market by rejecting money offers. It only allowed to deprive speculative traders from the source of cheap borrowed money and to limit speculative potential of American currency. Nevertheless, the dollar today "jumped" at considerable volume, because importers joined the bet on upward move. Disposition of the banks at KASE allows to speak about increased demand for USD from the side of banks, traditionally specializing on servicing foreign trade transactions. Most likely, the general market's spirit did not pass them by. By the day results the market makes a contradictory impression. The high potential of American currency's further going up can be concluded from a number of factors. Thus, during this week the GS repayment volume will reach almost KZT14.0 b. Only three bond floatation planned on Wednesday:notes-189 of the National Bank, MEOKAM-72 of the Ministry of Finance and bonds of Nurbank OJSC of the second issue can partially offset the tenge supply. Judging on disposition of banks at KASE on September 23, several active operators of foreign exchange did not get engaged in buying out of dollar, still working mainly on sale or preferring to lock in the profit on long positions during trade day. In case these operators start to work in opposite direction, the volume of demand for USD may increase on Wednesday twice as minimum. The dynamic of repo "overnight" rates is also working for dollar's straightening. By the results of exchange trades, indicator TONIA has fallen during a day from 1.84%APR to 8.44%APR. Most likely that this week the price for the shortest funds will drop, which will enable to create an additional demand for dollar at the exchange. Skeptical expectations towards fast dollar's appreciation during this week follow only from two factors. Dollar's lift against the background of high repo "overnight" rates is frequently followed by market overheating. Stabilizing interventions held by the main bank can sterilize the market from "spare" tenge and limit speculative potential of a dollar rapidly. The last two factors are quite serious to ignore. Therefore, IRBIS analysts show preference for moderate dollar appreciation on Wednesday (at day losing level on Tuesday), but the market break of 149.00 during current week still gives rise to doubts, though possible. In general, let us note that dollar rate in Kazakhstan behaves in full correspondence with medium term prediction of IRBIS specialists that was published in July. The market gradually forms a large deployable figure, and achieving of 149.00 level can put an end to medium-term trend of tenge strengthening relative to the main reserve currency of the world. [2003-09-23]