QUESTIONING - Forecast of bonds' yield in Kazakhstan

/REUTERS, Almaty, Olzhas Auezov, July 11, 03/ - Traders in Kazakhstan expect decline and following stabilization of yield on NBK yield, stable yield on bonds of the Ministry of finance, and mostly refrain from forecasts referring future of corporate eurobonds, noting that amount of really liquid instruments decreases in the market According to traditional survey of REUTERS, made on Friday, the majority of traders of largest banks believe that the fall of GS yield would finish soon as investors are gradually satisfying their appetite. "Amount of money is limited, and those who wanted to purchase notes (of the NBK), had already bought them, - trader of TuranAlem Bank believes. - The rush will continue about a month, then everything will stabilize". Yield of National Bank notes significantly declined during last months on high ask, which was determined by continuous tenge strengthening to dollar, liquidity redundancy and deficite of tenge instruments. Ministry of finance (MOF) continues to issue bonds in low volumes, satisfying only the small part of applications at the lowest yield. According to traders, issues of securities of Ministry of finance have small effect on the market. "Ministry of finance is not interested in collecting money from the market - this function is exercised by the NBK", - commented trader of Kazkommertsbank on the situation. Yield of the most liquid corporate eurobonds - Kazkommertsbank and TuranAlem bank - according to traders, would change according to dynamics of yield of US treasury securities. "Many people are waiting for speech of Greenspan (the Head of US federal reserve system) on July 16, yield of all emerging markets will depend on it", - said trader of ATF Bank. Traders also mark the dip of CS liquidity. "Our pension funds slowly began to purchase bonds of Kaztransoil, - said trader of ATF Bank. - More likely, these securities will suffer the fate of sovereign eurobonds: they will be shoveled up (to the pension funds' portfolios) and forgotten (till maturity). "From the point of view of speculative investments only eurobonds of Kazkommertsbank and bank TuranAlem are attractive", - added he. Below are forecasts of yield on different instruments (for notes of NBK and MOF bonds - weighted average yield on coming auctions, for CS - average index between demand and offer, as percentage APR, by the end of the period - month, three months and half a year): --------------------------------------------------- in 1 month 3 months 6 months ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Semiannual (182 days) NBK notes yield on the last auction on July 10 - 5.42% APR ATFBank 5,40 - - Bank TuranAlem 5,00 5,20 5,20 Kazkommertsbank 5,20-5,30 - - Bank CenterCredit 5,20-5,30 5,20-5,30 5,20-5,30 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Two-year MEOKAM (yield on the last auction on July 2 - 6.00% APR) ATFBank 6.00 6.00 6.00 Bank TuranAlem 6.40 6.40 6.40 Bank CenterCredit 6.00 6.00 6.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Three-year MEOKAM (yield on the last auction on July 9 - 6.50% APR) ATFBank 6.50 6.50 6.50 Bank TuranAlem 6.60 6.60 6.60 Bank CenterCredit 6.50 6.50 6.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazakhstan with maturity in 2007 Bank TuranAlem 3.80 3.80 3.80 Bank CenterCredit 4.00-4.50 4.00-4.50 4.00-4.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazkommerts International B.V. - 2007 ATFBank 8.00 - - Bank TuranAlem 7.60 7.40 7.00 Bank CenterCredit 7.50-8.00 7.50-8.00 7.50-8.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of TuranAlem Finance B.V. - 2007 ATFBank 8.30-8.50 - - Bank TuranAlem 7.60 7.40 7.00 Bank CenterCredit 7.80-8.20 7.80-8.20 7.80-8.20 --------------------------------------------------- [2003-07-11]