U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, July 3, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 147.82(+0.23) 147.89(+0.06) - - Volume of session (m) 15.155(+11.500) 4.760(+0.210) 0 0 Bid 147.85(+0.21) 147.88(+0.16) - - Offer 147.89(+0.23) 147.89(+0.05) - - Number of participants 20(+8) 14(-1) 0 0 ---------------------- --------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bid 147.82(+0.28) 147.83(+0.06) 147.84(+0.08) Offer 147.86(+0.30) 147.88(+0.06) 147.90(+0.09) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. Events in Kazakhstan market of dollar allow making some conclusions. On one hand, results of the Exchange auction, held on Thursday, is the evidence of further development of next correction movement upwards, caused by permanent over-selling of American currency. The market tries to throw off this over-selling, using decrease of supply volume of USD in periods of budget payments. On the other, the day showed slight potential of the current correction. The market was growing with difficulty today, there were low- volume deals, with number of recoils at rather low supply on dollar from the side of main operators. As a result, during the additional session of at KASE near 147.95 the feeling appeared that this was the ceiling, whereupon deals recommenced in 147.87 - 147.90. Over the counter the day ended with restrained optimism regarding further growth. Day results show that banks are not willing to buy dollar at large volumes now, even having all needed. Redundant liquidity of banking sector caused record high supply on notes of the National Bank. During their offering the issuer borrowed unprecedentented for Kazakhstan sum - KZT21,240 m or equivalent of $143.7m at the current exchange rate. Admitting that this investment has actually zero yield, the fact of tremendous demand on notes is the evidence for very low banks' estimation of speculative attraction of American currency at growth of the rate on the eve of budget payments. Should not forget the position of the National Bank, which is ready to sterilize the market from "excess" tenge at any time by any means possible. For example, it uses sale of the dollar at the domestic market, when the trend of positive change of the rate becomes notable (in repo sector the effectiveness of sterilization is almost zero due to limited amount of MEKKAM , which are owned by the National Bank, and also due to short repo term). Thus it is much less profitable to speculate upwards than downwards. It seems that today banks were extending their long positions exclusively for buying an instrument, which will "open downwards" close to the middle of the month. By results of the day IRBIS analysts are inclined to believe that correction movement of the market upwards is close the end. On Friday dollar rate might rise a little. However, most likely 148.00 won't be broken through. [2003-07-03]