QUESTIONING - Forecast of bonds' yield in Kazakhstan

/REUTERS, Almaty, Oljas Auezov, June 6, 03/ - Traders in Kazakhstan expect growth of prices of domestic banks' eurobonds and stability of other government and corporate bonds in foreseeable future. According to the data of questioning of Reuters, which was made on Friday, most questioned traders of largest banks believe that yield of the most liquid corporate eurobonds - Development Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazkommertsbank, bank TuranAlem and oil transportation state company Kaztransoil - will be stable or increase. In the opinion of dealer of bank CenterCredit Gabiden Balgimbekov, despite the continued weakening of dollar to tenge, currency instruments, most liquid of which are banks' eurobonds, became attractive for banks again because of deficit of long securities and low yield of money market in tenge. "One better invest into dollar securities rather than invest every day into tenge on one percent (APR)", - he said. Ministry of finance of Kazakhstan, which had kept from issuing bonds for half a year, came back to the market since the beginning of May with small and rare issues, which do not significantly influence the market. "Issues of the Ministry of finance do not make weather at all. It's even difficult to call them refinancing of redeemed debt", - trader of AMB thinks. Besides, traders assume that decrease of dollar's rate will not last for long. "Pandemonium concerning dollar's falling at Kazakhstan market is to end soon because the significant weakening of dollar is not advantageous for exporters", - said trader of AMB. "We think that in the nearest three-five months dollar's rate will become stable and, possibly, will grow, - a trader of ABN AMRO Bank Kazakhstan agrees with him. - Interest in tenge securities will be less than in currency ones. Everything will come back to its place". Below are forecasts of yield on various instruments (average index between demand and offer, as percentage APR, by the end of the period - month, three months and half a year): --------------------------------------------------- in 1 month 3 months 6 months ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Two-year МЕОКАМ (GTB) (yield at the last auction on May 5 - 6.99% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 6.50-6.75 6.50-6.75 6.35-6.60 AMB 5.95-6.05 5.95-6.05 5.95-6.05 Bank TuranAlem 6.80 6.80 6.80 Kazkommertsbank 6.50-7.00 - - Bank CenterCredit 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Three-year МЕОКАМ (GTB) (yield at the last auction on May 7 - 7.00% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 6.75-7.00 6.75-7.00 6.60-6.85 AMB 5.95-6.05 5.95-6.05 5.95-6.05 Bank TuranAlem 7.00 7.00 7.00 Kazkommertsbank 7.00 - - Bank CenterCredit 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazakhstan with maturity in 2007 AMB 3.60 3.60 3.60 Bank TuranAlem 3.60 3.60 3.60 Kazkommertsbank 3.60 - - Bank CenterCredit 3.00-3.50 3.00-3.50 3.00-3.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Development bank of Kazakhstan Bank TuranAlem 6.20 6.10 6.00 Kazkommertsbank 6.20 - - Bank CenterCredit 5.75-6.50 5.75-6.50 5.75-6.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazkommerts International B.V. Bank TuranAlem 6.80 6.40 6.20 Kazkommertsbank 7.00 - - Bank CenterCredit 6.50 6.50 6.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of TuranAlem Finance B.V. - 2007 Bank TuranAlem 6.80 6.40 6.20 Kazkommertsbank 7.30-7.40 - - Bank CenterCredit 6.50 6.50 6.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kaztransoil AMB 6.50-6.90 6.50-6.90 6.50-6.90 Kazkommertsbank 5.90 - - Bank CenterCredit 5.75-6.00 5.75-6.00 5.75-6.00 --------------------------------------------------- [2003-06-06]