In the first 5 months of 2003 volume of all transactions at KASE reached equivalent of $10,972.6 m and grew 1.4 times

/IRBIS, June 4, 03/ - In the first five months of 2003 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached equivalent of $10,972.6 m, or KZT1,674.8 bn. Compared to similar period of 2002, volume of transactions increased 1.4 times measured in dollars and in tenge. Relative to previous four-month period (August- December of 2002) stock exchange's turnover decreased by 16.6% measured in dollars and 17.8% measured in tenge. Following is the comparative table of volumes of deals made at KASE in the first quarter of 2003, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange's market (in million USD, unless otherwise specified). The calculation was made in terms of dollars. ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Rel. to corr. month of 2002: Relative to previous period: ----------------------- ---------------------------- Market's Jan- trend in: trend in: sector of May Jan-May --------------- Aug-Dec ------------------ KASE 2003 2002 m USD % 2002 m USD % ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- Foreign 2,062.4 870.2 +1,192.2 +137.0 1,647.3 +415.1 +25.2 currencies 18.8% 11.1% 12.5% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- Futures 2.010 281.5 -279.4 -99.3 427.2 -425.2 -100.0 contracts 0.018% 3.6% 3.2% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- GS 805.0 618.1 +186.9 +30.2 1,169.4 -364.4 -31.2 7.3% 7.9% 8.9% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- CS 429.0 156.2 +272.7 +174.6 402.8 26.2 +6.5 3.9% 2.0% 3.1% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- Repo (CS and 7,674.1 5,910.6 +1,763.5 +29.8 9,509.0 -1,834.9 -19.3 GS) total 69.9% 75.4% 72.3% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- inc. repo on GS, 1,024.2 1,027.4 -3.2 -0.3 1,739.2 -715.0 -41.1 direct 9.3% 13.1% 13.2% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- inc. auto- 6,456.0 4,843.5 +1,612.5 +33.3 7,655.1 -1,199.1 -15.7 repo on GS 58.8% 61.8% 58.2% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- inc. repo on CS, 152.6 39.6 +113.0 +285.3 111.0 41.6 +37.5 direct 1.39% 0.5% 0.8% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- inc. auto- 41.2 0 +41.2 X 3.7 +37.5 +1,005.2 ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- repo on CS 0.376% 0% 0.03% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- Promissory notes 0.096 0 +0.073 X 0 +0.096 X 0.001% 0% 0% ---------------- -------- ------- -------- ------ --------- --------- -------- TOTAL 10,972.6 7,836.6 +3,136.0 +40.0 13,155.7 -2,183.2 -16.6 100% 100% 100% ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 7 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Indica- sector tor XI-2002 XII-2002 I-2003 II-2003 III-2003 IV-2003 V-2003 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- In million US dollars -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Foreign volume 385.5 430.3 306.6 607.6 356.6 398.6 393.0 Currency % 11.7 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 16.5 17.5 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Futures volume 80.0 187.0 0 0.500 1.505 0.005 0 % 2.4 5.3 0 0.022 0.080 0.0002 0 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- GS volume 221.9 432.6 218.5 200.9 160.8 87.8 137.0 % 6.7 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 3.6 6.1 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- CS volume 19.7 282.7 78.5 27.9 41.6 82.7 198.2 % 0.6 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 8.8 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- REPO volume 2,601.4 2,176.8 1,528.9 1,456.5 1,323.9 1,846.6 1,518.3 % 78.6 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.3 76.4 67.6 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Promis. volume 0 0 0 0.096 0 0 0 notes % 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- TOTAL 3,308.5 3,509.4 2,132.4 2,293.5 1,884.5 2,415.7 2,246.5 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- In billion tenge -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Foreign volume 59.5 67.0 47.6 93.2 54.0 60.6 59.3 Currency % 11.6 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 16.5 17.5 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Futures volume 12.7 29.3 0 0.076 0.229 0.001 0 % 2.5 5.4 0 0.022 0.080 0.0002 0 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- GS volume 34.3 67.4 33.9 30.8 24.4 13.3 20.7 % 6.7 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 3.6 6.1 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- CS volume 3.0 44.0 12.2 4.3 6.3 12.6 29.9 % 0.6 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 8.8 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- REPO volume 401.6 338.8 237.6 223.3 200.5 280.7 229.2 % 78.6 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.2 76.4 67.6 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- Promis. volume 0 0 0 0.015 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- notes % 0 0 0 0.004 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- TOTAL 511.1 546.4 331.4 351.7 285.5 367.2 339.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: in GS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in CS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market (including SBS) are considered; in REPO sector repo transactions with GS and CS are considered, including auto repo. As the whole, May has justified expectations of analysts of IRBIS. Coming of the Ministry of finance to the market with new МЕКАМ issues, despite small issue volumes, significantly enlivened trade in GS at the secondary market. And though volume of transactions here has not reached indexes of the beginning of the year yet, tendency of monthly decrease of GS turnover, in all probability, has been interrupted. CS sector increased in May mainly due to selling state block of shares of CNPC-Aktobemunaigas OJSC at KASE. This event did not cause the significant animation of the market like it was while selling state blocks of Corporation Kazakhmys OJSC in 2001 and 2002. Judging on all, consequences of the sale will be felt only at the currency market in the first half of June. Contrary to expectations of IRBIS, volume of transactions in foreign currencies decreased at KASE in May. The decrease was minimal - by $5.6 m., i.e by average volume of one exchange's deal that lets say not about a tendency, but about working fluctuations of the market's volume. Repo market suffered from more significant losses ($328.3 m. or KZT51.5 bn.). Specialists of IRBIS explain it by falling of total level of second tier banks' short-term liquidity (weighted average value of indicator TONIA in May equaled to 4.28% APR, in April - 3.89% APR), that caused less active regulating of the money market by the National Bank. As the whole one can say that KASE's market in May became to look like "more stock market" more because stake of transactions in securities at the stock exchange reached 14.9% - the highest index in this year. Comparison of stock exchange's turnover in five-month period illustrates main tendencies of growth. Growth of the stake of transactions in foreign currency has been caused by the very large inflow of it to domestic market due to high oil prices, and in latest time - by successful borrowing of money by banks at the world debt market. Falling of the stake of GS turnover is explained by narrowing of these securities' primary market and decreasing of investment attractiveness of bonds, which are not concerned with real sector of economy. Growth of the stake of CS in KASE's turnover is taken as a positive tendency, which evidences about gradual development of the market of shares and corporate bonds sue to flow of money of Kazakhstan institutional investors to this sector of the financial market. In the opinion of specialists of IRBIS the first summer month at KASE will be hot. Already now the significant increase of volume of transactions volume in foreign currency is forecasted due to effect of a number of factors. And these factors work exceptionally for tenge strengthening. Taking effect of the new edition of "Rules of issue, floatation, circulation and redemption of short-term notes of the National Bank of Kazakhstan", due to what the head bank has an opportunity to issue long notes (limitation of these bonds circulation term is absent), even in presence of issue passivity of the Ministry of finance can significantly enliven the secondary GS market. The higher, than in May, short-term liquidity of STB lets expect growth of volume of repo transactions. And possible appearance of new corporate bonds at domestic market, intention to issue which has been announced already, will promote to further expansion of trade in CS. [2003-06-04]