QUESTIONING - Forecast of bonds' yield in Kazakhstan

/REUTERS, Almaty, Oljas Auezov, April 9, 03/ - Traders in Kazakhstan expect that prices of sovereign and corporate eurobonds will remain rather low in the nearest future because investors will buy instruments, which are nominated in tenge. According to the data of questioning of Reuters, which was made on Tuesday and Wednesday, most questioned traders of largest banks believe that yield of the most liquid corporate eurobonds - Development Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazkommertsbank, bank TuranAlem and oil transportation state company Kaztransoil - will be stable or decrease not later than in several months. Dollar's rate was almost constantly decreasing relative to tenge since the beginning of the year and became stable only in March having lessened the value of main part pension funds' assets, which had been invested into currency securities. Ministry of finance of Kazakhstan, which keeps from bonds issue since November of last year, promised to come back to the market in the second half year that, in traders' opinion, may induce pension funds to sell currency instrumentsin order to buy tenge government securities. "Investors will sell the most liquid currency instruments in order to buy tenge securities", - a Kazkommertsbank's trader believes. "They are roving (in search of tenge instruments), like wolves in a forest", - dealer of bank CenterCredit agrees with him. Situation at foreign markets, in traders' opinion, will not significantly influence Kazakhstan eurobonds' prices because of small issue volumes and foreign investors' mood for keeping securities till redemption. "Western investors bought Kazakhstan securities with the very high yield and act on the principle "buy and hold", - a trader of AMB believes. - Besides, They have been carried away by speculations with Turkish eurobonds ". "Deals in Kazakhstan eurobonds are made (at western markets) once a week - once a month". Below are forecasts of yield on different instruments (average index between demand and offer, as percentage APR, by the end of the period - month, three months and half a year): --------------------------------------------------- in 1 month 3 months 6 months ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Three-year МЕОКАМ (GTB) (yield at the last auction on November 14 - 7.40% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 6.77 6.77 6.50-6.80 AMB 7.40 7.40 7.10-7.20 Bank TuranAlem 7.00 7.00 7.00 Kazkommertsbank 6.50-7.00 - - Bank CenterCredit 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazakhstan with maturity in 2007 AMB 3.80 3.80 3.80 Bank TuranAlem 4.00 4.00 3.80 Kazkommertsbank 3.80-4.00 3.80-4.00 3.80-4.00 Bank CenterCredit 3.80 3.80 3.80 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Development bank of Kazakhstan Bank TuranAlem 6.40 6.30 6.00 Kazkommertsbank 6.50 6.50 6.50 Bank CenterCredit 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazkommerts International B.V. Bank TuranAlem 8.10 7.80 7.40 Kazkommertsbank 7.80 7.80 7.80 Bank CenterCredit 8.00 8.00 8.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of TuranAlem Finance B.V. - 2007 Bank TuranAlem 8.10 7.80 7.40 Kazkommertsbank 8.10 8.10 8.10 Bank CenterCredit 8.30 8.30 8.30 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kaztransoil AMB 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 Kazkommertsbank 6.80 6.80 6.80 Bank CenterCredit 6.50-6.80 6.50-6.80 6.50-6.80 --------------------------------------------------- [2003-04-09]