In the first quarter of 2003 volume of all transactions at KASE reached equivalent of $6,310.4 m and grew 1.2 times relative to similar period of 2002

/IRBIS, April 2, 03/ - In the first quarter of 2003 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached equivalent of $6,310.4 m, or KZT968.5 bn. Compared to similar period of 2002, volume of transactions increased 1.24 times measured in dollars and 1.25 times measured in tenge. Relative to previous period - the fourth quarter of 2002 - stock exchange's turnover decreased by 30.7% measured in dollars and 31.3% measured in tenge. Following is the comparative table of volumes of deals made at KASE in the first quarter of 2003, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange's market (in million USD, unless otherwise specified). The calculation was made in terms of dollars. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rel. Relative to corr. month of 2002: to previous period: ----------------------- ----------------------- Market's Jan- trend in: trend in: sector of Mar Jan-Mar --------------- Oct-Dec --------------- KASE 2003 2002 m USD % 2002 m USD % ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ Foreign 1,270.8 448.0 +822.9 +183.7 1,182.8 +88.0 +7.4 currencies 20.1% 8.8% 13.0% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ Futures 2.005 256.3 -254.3 -99.2 277.0 -275.0 -100.0 contracts 0.032% 5.0% 3.0% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ GS 580.2 422.5 +157.7 +37.3 828.5 -248.2 -30.0 9.2% 8.3% 9.1% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ CS 148.0 81.8 +66.2 +80.9 352.9 -204.9 -58.1 2.3% 1.6% 3.9% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ Repo (CS and 4,309.2 3,870.8 +438.5 +11.3 6,460.6 -2,151.3 -33.3 GS) total 68.3% 76.2% 71.0% inc. repo on GS, 670.6 835.3 -164.6 -19.7 1578.5 -907.8 -57.5 direct 10.6% 16.4% 17.3% inc. auto- 3,556.1 3,008.8 +547.3 +18.2 4,783.0 -1,227.0 -25.7 repo on GS 56.4% 59.2% 52.6% inc. repo on CS, 65.0 26.7 +38.3 +143.5 95.9 -30.9 -32.2 direct 1.0% 0.5% 1.1% inc. auto- 17.5 0 +17.5 X 3.1 +14.4 +456.3 repo on CS 0.3% 0% 0.03% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ Promissory notes 0.096 0 +0.073 X 0 +0.096 X 0.002% 0% 0% ---------------- ------- ------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------ TOTAL 6,310.4 5,079.5 +1,230.9 +24.2 9,101.7 -2,791.3 -30.7 100% 100% 100% ------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 7 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Indica- sector tor IX-2002 X-2002 XI-2002 XII-2002 I-2003 II-2003 III-2003 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- In million US dollars -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Foreign volume 237.9 366.9 385.5 430.3 306.6 607.6 356.6 Currency % 10.1 16.1 11.7 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Futures volume 150.2 10.0 80.0 187.0 0.0 1 1.51 % 6.4 0.4 2.4 5.3 0.0 0 0.08 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- GS volume 221.2 173.9 221.9 432.6 218.5 200.9 160.8 % 9.4 7.6 6.7 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- CS volume 34.9 50.5 19.7 282.7 78.5 27.9 41.6 % 1.5 2.2 0.6 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- REPO volume 1,707.7 1,682.4 2,601.4 2,176.8 1,528.9 1,456.5 1,323.9 % 72.6 73.7 78.6 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.3 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Promis. volume 0 0 0 0 0 0.096 0 notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- TOTAL 2,352.0 2,283.9 3,308.5 3,509.4 2,132.4 2,293.5 1,884.5 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- In billion tenge -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Foreign volume 36.8 56.7 59.5 67.0 47.6 93.2 54.0 Currency % 10.1 16.1 11.6 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Futures volume 23.495 1.6 12.7 29.3 0 0 0.23 % 6.4576 0.5 2.5 5.4 0 0 0.08 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- GS volume 34.2 26.9 34.3 67.4 33.9 30.8 24.4 % 9.4 7.6 6.7 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- CS volume 5.4 7.8 3.0 44.0 12.2 4.3 6.3 % 1.5 2.2 0.6 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- REPO volume 264.0 259.8 401.6 338.8 237.6 223.3 200.5 % 72.6 73.7 78.6 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.2 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- Promis. volume 0 0 0 0 0 0.015 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- -------- TOTAL 363.8 352.7 511.1 546.4 331.4 351.7 285.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: in GS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in CS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market (including SBS) are considered; in REPO sector repo transactions with GS and CS are considered, including auto repo. Results of the analysis, which has been made by IRBIS analysts, let say that the significant decrease of stock exchange's turnover in March relative to February was caused by events at currency market. Abrupt falling of dollar offer volume at KASE on account of exhaustion of exporters' currency reserves caused decrease of trades volume and development of correcting movement of dollar's rate upwards due to speculative and rather low-volume demand. The next period of shaky market's stabilization in expectation of new lots of currency proceeds was characterized with minimal participation of the National Bank in the exchange's trades in the second half of the month. It caused outflow of dollar's turnover from the stock exchange to interbank currency market, and as the result volume of trades at the KASE fell in March by $251.0 m. At the same time repo market became narrower too. On one hand, stoppage of dollar purchasing by the National Bank at domestic market deprived repo floor of "replenishment" with free tenge. On the other hand - in presence of quick compensating movement of dollar's rate upwards, repo rates were too low for banks in comparison with speculative dollar's attractiveness. Here banks were mainly borrowing money but volume of borrowings was small. He same factor - high speculative attractiveness of dollar - negatively influenced GS market because yield of the National Bank's notes was lower than yield of operations in USD and nobody wanted to separate from sovereign euronotes. Domestic mid-term bonds were still in deficit though their coming to the market from one bank allowed МЕОКАМ and МЕАКАМ to increase their stake in the turnover of GS purchase and sale market at KASE to 22.6%. It also should be noted that activation of speculative component in currency traders' behavior caused GS turnover's coming from the stock exchange to over the counter market. Stake of stock exchange's transactions in GS in March relative to the whole Kazakhstan market fell down to 66.6%. The only sector, which has won due to changing of currency market's conjuncture, is CS sector. There was insignificant increase of demand for corporate bonds here in the second half of the month, which had been caused by dollar's strengthening and it caused increase of the volume of trades by $13.8 m. IRBIS specialists still expect April will look like February more than March. According to forecast of IRBIS, which coincides with currency dealers' forecasts, volume of exporters' dollar offer in the middle of April may exceed March's indexes with all the ensuing for the market consequences. [2003-04-02]