U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, March 21, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 152.20(+0.38) 152.16(+0.21) 152.43(-) - Volume of session (m) 34.365(+12.940) 8.540(+0.340) 1.000(+1.000) 0 Bid 152.17(+0.36) 152.15(+0.24) 151.25(-) - Offer 152.18(+0.36) 152.16(+0.21) - - Number of participants 18(+1) 14( 0) 3(+3) - ---------------------- --------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bid 152.10(+0.30) 152.12(+0.20) 152.15(+0.10) Offer 152.84(+0.36) 152.22(+0.25) 152.30(+0.05) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. Today US dollar market of Kazakhstan continued to go in the same direction- quick tenge's weakening. This movement still seems to be correcting because its was caused mainly by speculative demand. In traders' opinion, objective demand for USD from outside of importers is still insignificant, and speculative one quickly grows after ending of budget payment according to results of last month. During the KASE's morning session second tier banks almost did not sell dollars and volume of purchase exceeded $34 m. Demand at the day trades was also significant. National Bank regulates the speed of tenge's weakening selling USD, and still, in the principle, does not hamper development of correction despite its speculative nature. High investment attractiveness of dollar today caused growing of the shortest money's cost at KASE to 8.2% APR. It caused the sharp decrease of demand for the National Bank's notes while their offering. Banks borrow tenge in order to buy dollar, and pension funds, using the increased demand for money, earn on the rates "overnight". Market's speculative nature is also proved by final phase of the stock exchange's day session. Bewaring of the National Bank's interference, currency dealers started fixing profit on long positions in the second half of the trade that caused quick falling of dollar's rate from 152.42 to 152.16. this occasion, in the opinion of IRBIS analysts, graphically illustrates instability of the new tendency at the currency market and possibility of its new momentary turn downwards while forming of firm resistance level by the head bank. Dealers uncertainty about further development of events caused expansion of spreads at the over the counter market by the end of the day to 15 points. But the market closed with growth anyway. Forecasting of further events, at bottom of fact, comes to forecasting of the National Bank's position at the market, because precisely it today forms speed of tenge's weakening. Judging on previous three days on can assume that on Tuesday (on Monday Kazakhstan market will be closed) the market will meet resistance on the level, which will not exceed 152.40. On the reason dollar can not find signs of over-purchase, its coming to this border is real. However taking into account absence of objective demand, one can not entirely rely on this forecast. IRBIS specialists believe that in case of the least felling of firm resistance of the National Bank to further growth of USD's rate, dealers will start massive selling of USD and the market will fall down as quickly as it's now going upwards. According to the data of technical analysis, today the market reached auxiliary resistance level on 152.47. Technical analysis considers this resistance as intermediary one because while forming the expanding formation the slanted level is not strong, but it's rather able to hold in the further rate's growth, that has been proved by results of the day. More significant thing is the level of previous crest on 152.77, and strong resistance is on the line of 153.40. [2003-03-21]